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Estimating and forecasting residential electricity demand in Iran

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  • Pourazarm, Elham
  • Cooray, Arusha

Abstract

This study examines the short- and the long-run relationship between electricity demand and its determinants in the Iranian residential sector. The study employs unit root tests, cointegration and error-correction models on annual time series for the period, 1967–2009. The results show that electricity price is insignificant and income elasticity is lower than unity. The most influential factor influencing household electricity demand is cooling degree days. The number of electrified villages (an indicator of economic progress) is statistically significant, showing that economic progress has a positive impact on electricity demand. Electricity demand is forecast until 2020. The results show that under the most probable projection, electricity consumption in the residential sector will grow at an annual rate of 29% and 80% by 2014 and 2020, respectively.

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Bibliographic Info

Article provided by Elsevier in its journal Economic Modelling.

Volume (Year): 35 (2013)
Issue (Month): C ()
Pages: 546-558

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Handle: RePEc:eee:ecmode:v:35:y:2013:i:c:p:546-558

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Web page: http://www.elsevier.com/locate/inca/30411

Related research

Keywords: Iran; Residential electricity demand; Economic development; Electrified villages; ARDL; Structural breaks; Short- and long-run price and income elasticities;

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Cited by:
  1. Lin, Boqiang & Ouyang, Xiaoling, 2014. "Electricity demand and conservation potential in the Chinese nonmetallic mineral products industry," Energy Policy, Elsevier, vol. 68(C), pages 243-253.

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