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Estimating Peak uranium production in China – Based on a Stella model

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  • Fang, Jianchun
  • Lau, Chi Keung Marco
  • Lu, Zhou
  • Wu, Wanshan

Abstract

This paper uses the Logistic Curve and the STELLA model to simulate the Hubbert Peak uranium production in China. We used three scenarios to estimate China's Peak uranium. And the results are quite robust. According to Scenario 3, the Hubbert Peak uranium production is expected to be reached in 2065 with 4605 t per year. Before the peak, China's uranium demand will grow at the rate of about 7.69% per year, which is about three times the growth rate of production. China's uranium import dependence is estimated to continue to increase. In order to improve uranium resources security, the Chinese government needs to increase investment in uranium ore exploration, encourage private sector's investment in uranium production to promote competition, and improve cooperation with non-uranium mining enterprises for more efficient use of resources. To enhance the country's uranium security, China should establish development funds, accelerate acquisition of uranium enterprises abroad, increase R&D in the unconventional uranium resources such as phosphate mine, and take advantage of price downturn in uranium market to increase strategic reserves.

Suggested Citation

  • Fang, Jianchun & Lau, Chi Keung Marco & Lu, Zhou & Wu, Wanshan, 2018. "Estimating Peak uranium production in China – Based on a Stella model," Energy Policy, Elsevier, vol. 120(C), pages 250-258.
    • Handle: RePEc:eee:enepol:v:120:y:2018:i:c:p:250-258
    DOI: 10.1016/j.enpol.2018.05.049
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    References listed on IDEAS

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    Cited by:

    1. Kerber, Samuel W. & Gilbert, Alexander Q. & Deinert, Mark R. & Bazilian, Morgan D., 2021. "Understanding the nexus of energy, environment and conflict: An overview," Renewable and Sustainable Energy Reviews, Elsevier, vol. 151(C).
    2. Yu Mao & Jinlong Yong & Qian Liu & Baoshan Wu & Henglei Chen & Youhua Hu & Guangwen Feng, 2022. "Heavy Metals/Metalloids in Soil of a Uranium Tailings Pond in Northwest China: Distribution and Relationship with Soil Physicochemical Properties and Radionuclides," Sustainability, MDPI, vol. 14(9), pages 1-13, April.
    3. Zirui Wang & Wanli Xing, 2022. "Study on the Characteristics and Evolution Trends of Global Uranium Resource Trade from the Perspective of a Complex Network," Sustainability, MDPI, vol. 14(22), pages 1-23, November.
    4. Lau, Chi Keung & Soliman, Alaa M. & Albasu, Joseph & Gozgor, Giray, 2023. "Dependence structures among geopolitical risks, energy prices, and carbon emissions prices," Resources Policy, Elsevier, vol. 83(C).
    5. Shang, Delei & Geissler, Bernhard & Mew, Michael & Satalkina, Liliya & Zenk, Lukas & Tulsidas, Harikrishnan & Barker, Lee & El-Yahyaoui, Adil & Hussein, Ahmed & Taha, Mohamed & Zheng, Yanhua & Wang, M, 2021. "Unconventional uranium in China's phosphate rock: Review and outlook," Renewable and Sustainable Energy Reviews, Elsevier, vol. 140(C).
    6. Al Rawashdeh, Rami, 2020. "World peak potash: An analytical study," Resources Policy, Elsevier, vol. 69(C).
    7. Xu, Bin & Lin, Boqiang, 2019. "Can expanding natural gas consumption reduce China's CO2 emissions?," Energy Economics, Elsevier, vol. 81(C), pages 393-407.
    8. Marian Sofranko & Samer Khouri & Olga Vegsoova & Peter Kacmary & Tawfik Mudarri & Martin Koncek & Maxim Tyulenev & Zuzana Simkova, 2020. "Possibilities of Uranium Deposit Kuriskova Mining and Its Influence on the Energy Potential of Slovakia from Own Resources," Energies, MDPI, vol. 13(16), pages 1-21, August.

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    More about this item

    Keywords

    Q47; C15; O13; Uranium; Hubbert Peak; Logistic curve; STELLA model;
    All these keywords.

    JEL classification:

    • Q47 - Agricultural and Natural Resource Economics; Environmental and Ecological Economics - - Energy - - - Energy Forecasting
    • C15 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Econometric and Statistical Methods and Methodology: General - - - Statistical Simulation Methods: General
    • O13 - Economic Development, Innovation, Technological Change, and Growth - - Economic Development - - - Agriculture; Natural Resources; Environment; Other Primary Products

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