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China's oil reserve forecast and analysis based on peak oil models

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  • Feng, Lianyong
  • Li, Junchen
  • Pang, Xiongqi
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    Abstract

    In order to forecast future oil production it is necessary to know the size of the reserves and use models. In this article, we use the typical Peak Oil models, the Hu-Chen-Zhang model usually called HCZ model and the Hubbert model, which have been used commonly for forecasting in China and the world, to forecast China's oil Ultimate Recovery (URR). The former appears to give more realistic results based on an URR for China of 15.64 billion tons. The study leads to some suggestions for new policies to meet the unfolding energy situation.

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    Bibliographic Info

    Article provided by Elsevier in its journal Energy Policy.

    Volume (Year): 36 (2008)
    Issue (Month): 11 (November)
    Pages: 4149-4153

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    Handle: RePEc:eee:enepol:v:36:y:2008:i:11:p:4149-4153

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    Web page: http://www.elsevier.com/locate/enpol

    Related research

    Keywords: Ultimate Recovery Peak oil models Energy policy;

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    Cited by:
    1. de Castro, Carlos & Miguel, Luis Javier & Mediavilla, Margarita, 2009. "The role of non conventional oil in the attenuation of peak oil," Energy Policy, Elsevier, vol. 37(5), pages 1825-1833, May.

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