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A comparison of two typical multicyclic models used to forecast the world's conventional oil production

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  • Wang, Jianliang
  • Feng, Lianyong
  • Zhao, Lin
  • Snowden, Simon
  • Wang, Xu
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    Abstract

    This paper introduces two typical multicyclic models: the Hubbert model and the Generalized Weng model. The model-solving process of the two is expounded, and it provides the basis for an empirical analysis of the world's conventional oil production. The results for both show that the world's conventional oil (crude+NGLs) production will reach its peak in 2011 with a production of 30 billion barrels (Gb). In addition, the forecasting effects of these two models, given the same URR are compared, and the intrinsic characteristics of these two models are analyzed. This demonstrates that for specific criteria the multicyclic Generalized Weng model is an improvement on the multicyclic Hubbert model. Finally, based upon the resultant forecast for the world's conventional oil, some suggestions are proposed for China's policy makers.

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    Bibliographic Info

    Article provided by Elsevier in its journal Energy Policy.

    Volume (Year): 39 (2011)
    Issue (Month): 12 ()
    Pages: 7616-7621

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    Handle: RePEc:eee:enepol:v:39:y:2011:i:12:p:7616-7621

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    Web page: http://www.elsevier.com/locate/enpol

    Related research

    Keywords: Hubbert model; Generalized weng model; Oil production forecast;

    References

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    1. Maggio, G. & Cacciola, G., 2009. "A variant of the Hubbert curve for world oil production forecasts," Energy Policy, Elsevier, vol. 37(11), pages 4761-4770, November.
    2. Höök, Mikael & Hirsch, Robert & Aleklett, Kjell, 2009. "Giant oil field decline rates and their influence on world oil production," Energy Policy, Elsevier, vol. 37(6), pages 2262-2272, June.
    3. Bentley, R. W., 2002. "Global oil & gas depletion: an overview," Energy Policy, Elsevier, vol. 30(3), pages 189-205, February.
    4. Patzek, Tadeusz W. & Croft, Gregory D., 2010. "A global coal production forecast with multi-Hubbert cycle analysis," Energy, Elsevier, vol. 35(8), pages 3109-3122.
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    Cited by:
    1. Wang, Jianliang & Feng, Lianyong & Tverberg, Gail E., 2013. "An analysis of China's coal supply and its impact on China's future economic growth," Energy Policy, Elsevier, vol. 57(C), pages 542-551.

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