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Energy Return on Investment (EROI) of China's conventional fossil fuels: Historical and future trends

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  • Hu, Yan
  • Hall, Charles A.S.
  • Wang, Jianliang
  • Feng, Lianyong
  • Poisson, Alexandre

Abstract

One of useful metrics for analyzing the production of fossil fuels in China is Energy Return on (Energy) Investment (EROI). Various measures of this index are declining. The EROI for China's oil and natural gas production sector fluctuated from 12 to 14:1 in the mid-1990s, and declined to 10:1 in 2007–2010. EROI for the coal production sector has declined from 35:1 in 1995–1997 to about 27:1 in 2010. We used a multi-cyclic generalized Weng model and a linear trend extrapolation method to predict that the EROI of either sector will continue to decline until 2020. We predict that the average EROIstnd for oil and natural gas extraction will be about 10:1 in 2015, 9:1 in 2020, and that for the coal production sector will be about 28:1 in 2015, 24:1 in 2020. EROI for coal extraction are and will continue to be higher than that for oil and natural gas extraction, indicating that coal is likely to continue being the most dominant fossil fuel resource for China in the future, ensuring some degree of energy security.

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  • Hu, Yan & Hall, Charles A.S. & Wang, Jianliang & Feng, Lianyong & Poisson, Alexandre, 2013. "Energy Return on Investment (EROI) of China's conventional fossil fuels: Historical and future trends," Energy, Elsevier, vol. 54(C), pages 352-364.
    • Handle: RePEc:eee:energy:v:54:y:2013:i:c:p:352-364
    DOI: 10.1016/j.energy.2013.01.067
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    13. Delannoy, Louis & Longaretti, Pierre-Yves & Murphy, David J. & Prados, Emmanuel, 2021. "Peak oil and the low-carbon energy transition: A net-energy perspective," Applied Energy, Elsevier, vol. 304(C).
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    18. Wang, Jianliang & Mohr, Steve & Feng, Lianyong & Liu, Huihui & Tverberg, Gail E., 2016. "Analysis of resource potential for China’s unconventional gas and forecast for its long-term production growth," Energy Policy, Elsevier, vol. 88(C), pages 389-401.
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    20. Louis Delannoy & Pierre-Yves Longaretti & David. J. Murphy & Emmanuel Prados, 2021. "Assessing Global Long-Term EROI of Gas: A Net-Energy Perspective on the Energy Transition," Energies, MDPI, vol. 14(16), pages 1-16, August.
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