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A variant of the Hubbert curve for world oil production forecasts

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  • Maggio, G.
  • Cacciola, G.
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    Abstract

    In recent years, the economic and political aspects of energy problems have prompted many researchers and analysts to focus their attention on the Hubbert Peak Theory with the aim of forecasting future trends in world oil production. In this paper, a model that attempts to contribute in this regard is presented; it is based on a variant of the well-known Hubbert curve. In addition, the sum of multiple-Hubbert curves (two cycles) is used to provide a better fit for the historical data on oil production (crude and natural gas liquid (NGL)). Taking into consideration three possible scenarios for oil reserves, this approach allowed us to forecast when peak oil production, referring to crude oil and NGL, should occur. In particular, by assuming a range of 2250-3000 gigabarrels (Gb) for ultimately recoverable conventional oil, our predictions foresee a peak between 2009 and 2021 at 29.3-32.1Â Gb/year.

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    Bibliographic Info

    Article provided by Elsevier in its journal Energy Policy.

    Volume (Year): 37 (2009)
    Issue (Month): 11 (November)
    Pages: 4761-4770

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    Handle: RePEc:eee:enepol:v:37:y:2009:i:11:p:4761-4770

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    Web page: http://www.elsevier.com/locate/enpol

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    Keywords: Oil production Hubbert theory Oil peak forecasts;

    References

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    1. Stephen P. Holland, 2008. "Modeling Peak Oil," The Energy Journal, International Association for Energy Economics, vol. 0(Number 2), pages 61-80.
    2. AfDB AfDB, 2009. "MDG Report 2009 - Full Report," MDG Report 99, African Development Bank.
    3. AfDB AfDB, . "AfDB Group Annual Report 2008," Annual Report, African Development Bank, number 64 edited by Koua Louis Kouakou, 8.
    4. Brandt, Adam R., 2007. "Testing Hubbert," Energy Policy, Elsevier, vol. 35(5), pages 3074-3088, May.
    5. Rehrl, Tobias & Friedrich, Rainer, 2006. "Modelling long-term oil price and extraction with a Hubbert approach: The LOPEX model," Energy Policy, Elsevier, vol. 34(15), pages 2413-2428, October.
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    Cited by:
    1. Guseo, Renato, 2011. "Worldwide cheap and heavy oil productions: A long-term energy model," Energy Policy, Elsevier, vol. 39(9), pages 5572-5577, September.
    2. Chapman, Ian, 2014. "The end of Peak Oil? Why this topic is still relevant despite recent denials," Energy Policy, Elsevier, vol. 64(C), pages 93-101.
    3. Tiffany L. Fess & James B. Kotcon & Vagner A. Benedito, 2011. "Crop Breeding for Low Input Agriculture: A Sustainable Response to Feed a Growing World Population," Sustainability, MDPI, Open Access Journal, vol. 3(10), pages 1742-1772, October.
    4. Gallagher, Brian, 2011. "Peak oil analyzed with a logistic function and idealized Hubbert curve," Energy Policy, Elsevier, vol. 39(2), pages 790-802, February.
    5. Wang, Jianliang & Feng, Lianyong & Zhao, Lin & Snowden, Simon & Wang, Xu, 2011. "A comparison of two typical multicyclic models used to forecast the world's conventional oil production," Energy Policy, Elsevier, vol. 39(12), pages 7616-7621.
    6. Patrick Criqui & Silvana Mima, 2012. "European climate -- energy security nexus: A model based scenario analysis," Post-Print halshs-00661043, HAL.
    7. Verbruggen, Aviel & Al Marchohi, Mohamed, 2010. "Views on peak oil and its relation to climate change policy," Energy Policy, Elsevier, vol. 38(10), pages 5572-5581, October.

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