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Long term prediction of unconventional oil production

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  • Mohr, S.H.
  • Evans, G.M.
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    Abstract

    Although considerable discussion surrounds unconventional oil's ability to mitigate the effects of peaking conventional oil production, very few models of unconventional oil production exist. The aim of this article was to project unconventional oil production to determine how significant its production may be. Two models were developed to predict the unconventional oil production, one model for in situ production and the other for mining the resources. Unconventional oil production is anticipated to reach between 18 and 32Â Gb/y (49-88Â Mb/d) in 2076-2084, before declining. If conventional oil production is at peak production then projected unconventional oil production cannot mitigate peaking of conventional oil alone.

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    Bibliographic Info

    Article provided by Elsevier in its journal Energy Policy.

    Volume (Year): 38 (2010)
    Issue (Month): 1 (January)
    Pages: 265-276

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    Handle: RePEc:eee:enepol:v:38:y:2010:i:1:p:265-276

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    Web page: http://www.elsevier.com/locate/enpol

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    Keywords: Unconventional oil Modeling Supply;

    References

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    1. Soderbergh, Bengt & Robelius, Fredrik & Aleklett, Kjell, 2007. "A crash programme scenario for the Canadian oil sands industry," Energy Policy, Elsevier, Elsevier, vol. 35(3), pages 1931-1947, March.
    2. Greene, David L. & Hopson, Janet L. & Li, Jia, 2006. "Have we run out of oil yet? Oil peaking analysis from an optimist's perspective," Energy Policy, Elsevier, Elsevier, vol. 34(5), pages 515-531, March.
    3. de Castro, Carlos & Miguel, Luis Javier & Mediavilla, Margarita, 2009. "The role of non conventional oil in the attenuation of peak oil," Energy Policy, Elsevier, Elsevier, vol. 37(5), pages 1825-1833, May.
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    Cited by:
    1. Liam Wagner & Ian Ross & John Foster & Ben Hankamer, 2013. "Tracking global fuel supply, CO2 emissions and sustainable development," Energy Economics and Management Group Working Papers 7-2013, School of Economics, University of Queensland, Australia.
    2. Goldemberg, José & Schaeffer, Roberto & Szklo, Alexandre & Lucchesi, Rodrigo, 2014. "Oil and natural gas prospects in South America: Can the petroleum industry pave the way for renewables in Brazil?," Energy Policy, Elsevier, Elsevier, vol. 64(C), pages 58-70.
    3. Méjean, A. & Hope, C., 2010. "Supplying Synthetic Crude Oil from Canadian Oil Sands: A Comparative Study of the Costs and CO2 Emissions of Mining and In-Situ Recovery," Cambridge Working Papers in Economics 1014, Faculty of Economics, University of Cambridge.
    4. Patrick Criqui & Silvana Mima, 2012. "European climate -- energy security nexus: A model based scenario analysis," Post-Print halshs-00661043, HAL.

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