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The Peak of the Oil Age - Analyzing the world oil production Reference Scenario in World Energy Outlook 2008

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  • Aleklett, Kjell
  • Höök, Mikael
  • Jakobsson, Kristofer
  • Lardelli, Michael
  • Snowden, Simon
  • Söderbergh, Bengt

Abstract

The assessment of future global oil production presented in the IEA's World Energy Outlook 2008 (WEO 2008) is divided into 6 fractions; four relate to crude oil, one to non-conventional oil, and the final fraction is natural-gas-liquids (NGL). Using the production parameter, depletion-rate-of-recoverable-resources, we have analyzed the four crude oil fractions and found that the 75Â Mb/d of crude oil production forecast for year 2030 appears significantly overstated, and is more likely to be in the region of 55Â Mb/d. Moreover, analysis of the other fractions strongly suggests lower than expected production levels. In total, our analysis points to a world oil supply in 2030 of 75Â Mb/d, some 26Â Mb/d lower than the IEA predicts. The connection between economic growth and energy use is fundamental in the IEA's present modelling approach. Since our forecast sees little chance of a significant increase in global oil production, our findings suggest that the "policy makers, investors and end users" to whom WEO 2008 is addressed should rethink their future plans for economic growth. The fact that global oil production has very probably passed its maximum implies that we have reached the Peak of the Oil Age.

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Bibliographic Info

Article provided by Elsevier in its journal Energy Policy.

Volume (Year): 38 (2010)
Issue (Month): 3 (March)
Pages: 1398-1414

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Handle: RePEc:eee:enepol:v:38:y:2010:i:3:p:1398-1414

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Web page: http://www.elsevier.com/locate/enpol

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Keywords: Future oil supply Peak oil World Energy Outlook 2008;

References

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Please report citation or reference errors to , or , if you are the registered author of the cited work, log in to your RePEc Author Service profile, click on "citations" and make appropriate adjustments.:
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  1. Soderbergh, Bengt & Robelius, Fredrik & Aleklett, Kjell, 2007. "A crash programme scenario for the Canadian oil sands industry," Energy Policy, Elsevier, vol. 35(3), pages 1931-1947, March.
  2. Hirsch, Robert L., 2008. "Mitigation of maximum world oil production: Shortage scenarios," Energy Policy, Elsevier, vol. 36(2), pages 881-889, February.
  3. Höök, Mikael & Aleklett, Kjell, 2008. "A decline rate study of Norwegian oil production," Energy Policy, Elsevier, vol. 36(11), pages 4262-4271, November.
  4. Jakobsson, Kristofer & Söderbergh, Bengt & Höök, Mikael & Aleklett, Kjell, 2009. "How reasonable are oil production scenarios from public agencies?," Energy Policy, Elsevier, vol. 37(11), pages 4809-4818, November.
  5. de Castro, Carlos & Miguel, Luis Javier & Mediavilla, Margarita, 2009. "The role of non conventional oil in the attenuation of peak oil," Energy Policy, Elsevier, vol. 37(5), pages 1825-1833, May.
  6. Bentley, R. W., 2002. "Global oil & gas depletion: an overview," Energy Policy, Elsevier, vol. 30(3), pages 189-205, February.
  7. Höök, Mikael & Hirsch, Robert & Aleklett, Kjell, 2009. "Giant oil field decline rates and their influence on world oil production," Energy Policy, Elsevier, vol. 37(6), pages 2262-2272, June.
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Cited by:
  1. Vanderschuren, M.J.W.A & Lane, T.E. & Wakeford, J.J., 2010. "Can the South African transport system surmount reduced crude oil availability?," Energy Policy, Elsevier, vol. 38(10), pages 6092-6100, October.
  2. Dinwoodie, John & Tuck, Sarah & Rigot-Müller, Patrick, 2013. "Maritime oil freight flows to 2050: Delphi perceptions of maritime specialists," Energy Policy, Elsevier, vol. 63(C), pages 553-561.
  3. McGlade, Christophe E., 2014. "Comment on the ‘Uppsala critique’," Energy Policy, Elsevier, vol. 67(C), pages 154-158.
  4. Wicker, Pamela & Becken, Susanne, 2013. "Conscientious vs. ambivalent consumers: Do concerns about energy availability and climate change influence consumer behaviour?," Ecological Economics, Elsevier, vol. 88(C), pages 41-48.
  5. Stan Becker, 2013. "Has the World Really Survived the Population Bomb? (Commentary on “How the World Survived the Population Bomb: Lessons From 50 Years of Extraordinary Demographic History”)," Demography, Springer, vol. 50(6), pages 2173-2181, December.
  6. Friedrichs, Jörg, 2010. "Global energy crunch: How different parts of the world would react to a peak oil scenario," Energy Policy, Elsevier, vol. 38(8), pages 4562-4569, August.
  7. Cohen, Nissim & Naor, Michael, 2013. "Reducing dependence on oil? How policy entrepreneurs utilize the national security agenda to recruit government support: The case of electric transportation in Israel," Energy Policy, Elsevier, vol. 56(C), pages 582-590.
  8. Muhammad Isma’il, 2012. "Visualising the Global Shift in Energy Demand and Supply," International Journal of Energy Economics and Policy, Econjournals, vol. 2(3), pages 134-146.
  9. Sorrell, Steve & Speirs, Jamie & Bentley, Roger & Brandt, Adam & Miller, Richard, 2010. "Global oil depletion: A review of the evidence," Energy Policy, Elsevier, vol. 38(9), pages 5290-5295, September.
  10. Watcharasukarn, Montira & Page, Shannon & Krumdieck, Susan, 2012. "Virtual reality simulation game approach to investigate transport adaptive capacity for peak oil planning," Transportation Research Part A: Policy and Practice, Elsevier, vol. 46(2), pages 348-367.
  11. Mads V. Markussen & Hanne Østergård, 2013. "Energy Analysis of the Danish Food Production System: Food-EROI and Fossil Fuel Dependency," Energies, MDPI, Open Access Journal, vol. 6(8), pages 4170-4186, August.
  12. Sorrell, Steve & Miller, Richard & Bentley, Roger & Speirs, Jamie, 2010. "Oil futures: A comparison of global supply forecasts," Energy Policy, Elsevier, vol. 38(9), pages 4990-5003, September.
  13. Kathrin Sunde & Andreas Brekke & Birger Solberg, 2011. "Environmental Impacts and Costs of Hydrotreated Vegetable Oils, Transesterified Lipids and Woody BTL—A Review," Energies, MDPI, Open Access Journal, vol. 4(6), pages 845-877, May.
  14. Jess, Andreas, 2010. "What might be the energy demand and energy mix to reconcile the world's pursuit of welfare and happiness with the necessity to preserve the integrity of the biosphere?," Energy Policy, Elsevier, vol. 38(8), pages 4663-4678, August.
  15. Lovelace, R. & Beck, S.B.M. & Watson, M. & Wild, A., 2011. "Assessing the energy implications of replacing car trips with bicycle trips in Sheffield, UK," Energy Policy, Elsevier, vol. 39(4), pages 2075-2087, April.
  16. Harsem, Øistein & Harald Claes, Dag, 2013. "The interdependence of European–Russian energy relations," Energy Policy, Elsevier, vol. 59(C), pages 784-791.
  17. Lloyd, Bob & Forest, Andrew S., 2010. "The transition to renewables: Can PV provide an answer to the peak oil and climate change challenges?," Energy Policy, Elsevier, vol. 38(11), pages 7378-7394, November.
  18. Chiari, Luca & Zecca, Antonio, 2011. "Constraints of fossil fuels depletion on global warming projections," Energy Policy, Elsevier, vol. 39(9), pages 5026-5034, September.
  19. Shkolnikov, E.I. & Zhuk, A.Z. & Vlaskin, M.S., 2011. "Aluminum as energy carrier: Feasibility analysis and current technologies overview," Renewable and Sustainable Energy Reviews, Elsevier, vol. 15(9), pages 4611-4623.
  20. Fantazzini, Dean & Hook, Mikael & Angelantoni, André, 2011. "Global oil risks in the early 21st century," MPRA Paper 33825, University Library of Munich, Germany.
  21. Tiffany L. Fess & James B. Kotcon & Vagner A. Benedito, 2011. "Crop Breeding for Low Input Agriculture: A Sustainable Response to Feed a Growing World Population," Sustainability, MDPI, Open Access Journal, vol. 3(10), pages 1742-1772, October.
  22. Dale, Michael & Krumdieck, Susan & Bodger, Pat, 2011. "Net energy yield from production of conventional oil," Energy Policy, Elsevier, vol. 39(11), pages 7095-7102.
  23. Louise Staffas & Mathias Gustavsson & Kes McCormick, 2013. "Strategies and Policies for the Bioeconomy and Bio-Based Economy: An Analysis of Official National Approaches," Sustainability, MDPI, Open Access Journal, vol. 5(6), pages 2751-2769, June.
  24. Marina Fischer-Kowalski & Dominik Wiedenhofer & Willi Haas & Irene Pallua & Daniel Hausknost, 2013. "Developing Resource use Scenarios for Europe," WWWforEurope Working Papers series 25, WWWforEurope.

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