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A system dynamics approach for the photovoltaic energy market in Spain¤

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  • Movilla, Santiago
  • Miguel, Luis J.
  • Blázquez, L. Felipe

Abstract

The goal of this paper is to contribute to understanding the behaviour of the photovoltaic (PV) sector in Spain and its expectations under possible scenarios. Currently, PV solar energy is not a profitable sector by itself. Therefore, the Spanish government, like the governments of other countries, has stimulated investment with subsidies. The spectacular increase of PV facilities exceeded all forecasts and the government decided to curb the trend. The present hypothesis is that continuing with this support to PV energy, the technological advances and the economy generated from the production of panels would be able to make the sector profitable in the future without the necessity of subventions. Based on this hypothesis, a computer simulation model was built using the system dynamics methodology. To test its utility, the model was challenged to fit the historical data and to explore several futures over the next few years. The model allows an understanding of the sector's behaviour under the latest policies of the Spanish government, thus helping to design future public policies. The simulation results are different depending on the adopted policy and the scenario. Therefore, these factors will determine the success or failure of the investments in this type of energy.

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  • Movilla, Santiago & Miguel, Luis J. & Blázquez, L. Felipe, 2013. "A system dynamics approach for the photovoltaic energy market in Spain¤," Energy Policy, Elsevier, vol. 60(C), pages 142-154.
    • Handle: RePEc:eee:enepol:v:60:y:2013:i:c:p:142-154
    DOI: 10.1016/j.enpol.2013.04.072
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    Cited by:

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    6. Armin Leopold, 2016. "Energy related system dynamic models: a literature review," Central European Journal of Operations Research, Springer;Slovak Society for Operations Research;Hungarian Operational Research Society;Czech Society for Operations Research;Österr. Gesellschaft für Operations Research (ÖGOR);Slovenian Society Informatika - Section for Operational Research;Croatian Operational Research Society, vol. 24(1), pages 231-261, March.
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    9. Baur, Lucia & Uriona M., Mauricio, 2018. "Diffusion of photovoltaic technology in Germany: A sustainable success or an illusion driven by guaranteed feed-in tariffs?," Energy, Elsevier, vol. 150(C), pages 289-298.
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    12. Yin, Yuwei & Lam, Jasmine Siu Lee, 2022. "Bottlenecks of LNG supply chain in energy transition: A case study of China using system dynamics simulation," Energy, Elsevier, vol. 250(C).
    13. Jimenez, Maritza & Franco, Carlos J. & Dyner, Isaac, 2016. "Diffusion of renewable energy technologies: The need for policy in Colombia," Energy, Elsevier, vol. 111(C), pages 818-829.
    14. Bunea, Anita M. & Della Posta, Pompeo & Guidolin, Mariangela & Manfredi, Piero, 2020. "What do adoption patterns of solar panels observed so far tell about governments’ incentive? Insights from diffusion models," Technological Forecasting and Social Change, Elsevier, vol. 160(C).
    15. Abba, Z.Y.I. & Balta-Ozkan, N. & Hart, P., 2022. "A holistic risk management framework for renewable energy investments," Renewable and Sustainable Energy Reviews, Elsevier, vol. 160(C).
    16. Liu, Dunnan & Xiao, Bowen, 2018. "Exploring the development of electric vehicles under policy incentives: A scenario-based system dynamics model," Energy Policy, Elsevier, vol. 120(C), pages 8-23.
    17. Raquel Fernández-González & Andrés Suárez-García & Miguel Ángel Álvarez Feijoo & Elena Arce & Montserrat Díez-Mediavilla, 2020. "Spanish Photovoltaic Solar Energy: Institutional Change, Financial Effects, and the Business Sector," Sustainability, MDPI, vol. 12(5), pages 1-18, March.
    18. Li, Yina & Liang, Chenchen & Ye, Fei & Zhao, Xiande, 2023. "Designing government subsidy schemes to promote the electric vehicle industry: A system dynamics model perspective," Transportation Research Part A: Policy and Practice, Elsevier, vol. 167(C).
    19. Karakaya, Emrah & Sriwannawit, Pranpreya, 2015. "Barriers to the adoption of photovoltaic systems: The state of the art," Renewable and Sustainable Energy Reviews, Elsevier, vol. 49(C), pages 60-66.
    20. Mir-Artigues, Pere & Cerdá, Emilio & del Río, Pablo, 2018. "Analysing the economic impact of the new renewable electricity support scheme on solar PV plants in Spain," Energy Policy, Elsevier, vol. 114(C), pages 323-331.
    21. Lawrence Haar, 2021. "Design Flaws in United Kingdom Renewable Energy Support Scheme," Energies, MDPI, vol. 14(6), pages 1-26, March.

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