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European climate -- energy security nexus: A model based scenario analysis

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  • Patrick Criqui

    ()
    (LEPII - Laboratoire d'Économie de la Production et de l'Intégration Internationale - CNRS : FRE3389 - Université Pierre Mendès-France - Grenoble II)

  • Silvana Mima

    ()
    (LEPII - Laboratoire d'Économie de la Production et de l'Intégration Internationale - CNRS : FRE3389 - Université Pierre Mendès-France - Grenoble II)

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    Abstract

    In this research, we provide an overview of the climate-security nexus in the European energy sector, through a model based analysis of scenarios produced with the POLES model. The scenarios describe the consequences of different degrees of GHG emission constraint, at world level, but also for a case where Europe adopts an ambitious climate policy, while the rest of the world sticks to much more modest abatement policies. The analysis shows that under such stringent climate policies, Europe may benefit of a significant double dividend, first in its capacity to develop a new cleaner and climate-friendlier energy model, and second in a lower vulnerability to potential price or supply shocks on the international energy markets.

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    Bibliographic Info

    Paper provided by HAL in its series Post-Print with number halshs-00661043.

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    Date of creation: Feb 2012
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    Publication status: Published, Energy Policy, 2012, 41, 1, 827-842
    Handle: RePEc:hal:journl:halshs-00661043

    Note: View the original document on HAL open archive server: http://halshs.archives-ouvertes.fr/halshs-00661043
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    Web page: http://hal.archives-ouvertes.fr/

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    Keywords: climate policy ; scenarios ; energy security;

    This paper has been announced in the following NEP Reports:

    References

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    1. Zhao, Lin & Feng, Lianyong & Hall, Charles A.S., 2009. "Is peakoilism coming?," Energy Policy, Elsevier, Elsevier, vol. 37(6), pages 2136-2138, June.
    2. Mohr, S.H. & Evans, G.M., 2010. "Long term prediction of unconventional oil production," Energy Policy, Elsevier, Elsevier, vol. 38(1), pages 265-276, January.
    3. de Castro, Carlos & Miguel, Luis Javier & Mediavilla, Margarita, 2009. "The role of non conventional oil in the attenuation of peak oil," Energy Policy, Elsevier, Elsevier, vol. 37(5), pages 1825-1833, May.
    4. de Almeida, Pedro & Silva, Pedro D., 2009. "The peak of oil production--Timings and market recognition," Energy Policy, Elsevier, Elsevier, vol. 37(4), pages 1267-1276, April.
    5. Matutinovic, Igor, 2009. "Oil and the political economy of energy," Energy Policy, Elsevier, Elsevier, vol. 37(11), pages 4251-4258, November.
    6. Zecca, Antonio & Chiari, Luca, 2010. "Fossil-fuel constraints on global warming," Energy Policy, Elsevier, Elsevier, vol. 38(1), pages 1-3, January.
    7. Maggio, G. & Cacciola, G., 2009. "A variant of the Hubbert curve for world oil production forecasts," Energy Policy, Elsevier, Elsevier, vol. 37(11), pages 4761-4770, November.
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    Citations

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    Cited by:
    1. Yue, Ting & Long, Ruyin & Chen, Hong & Zhao, Xin, 2013. "The optimal CO2 emissions reduction path in Jiangsu province: An expanded IPAT approach," Applied Energy, Elsevier, Elsevier, vol. 112(C), pages 1510-1517.
    2. Patrick Criqui & Alban Kitous, 2012. "2010-2020 : une décennie décisive pour l'avenir du climat planétaire," Post-Print, HAL halshs-00709938, HAL.
    3. Hannah Förster & Katja Schumacher & Enrica De Cian & Michael Hübler & Ilkka Keppo & Silvana Mima & Ronald D. Sands, 2013. "European Energy Efficiency And Decarbonization Strategies Beyond 2030 — A Sectoral Multi-Model Decomposition," Climate Change Economics (CCE), World Scientific Publishing Co. Pte. Ltd., World Scientific Publishing Co. Pte. Ltd., vol. 4(su), pages 1340004-1-1.
    4. Patrick Criqui & Constantin Ilasca & Emmanuel Prados, 2014. "National Soft Landing CO2 trajectories under global carbon budgets," Working Papers halshs-00980101, HAL.
    5. Enrica De Cian & Ilkka Keppo & Johannes Bollen & Samuel Carrara & Hannah Förster & Michael Hübler & Amit Kanudia & Sergey Paltsev & Ronald D. Sands & Katja Schumacher, 2013. "European-Led Climate Policy Versus Global Mitigation Action: Implications On Trade, Technology, And Energy," Climate Change Economics (CCE), World Scientific Publishing Co. Pte. Ltd., World Scientific Publishing Co. Pte. Ltd., vol. 4(su), pages 1340002-1-1.
    6. Jewell, Jessica & Cherp, Aleh & Riahi, Keywan, 2014. "Energy security under de-carbonization scenarios: An assessment framework and evaluation under different technology and policy choices," Energy Policy, Elsevier, Elsevier, vol. 65(C), pages 743-760.
    7. Brigitte Knopf & Bjørn Bakken & Samuel Carrara & Amit Kanudia & Ilkka Keppo & Tiina Koljonen & Silvana Mima & Eva Schmid & Detlef van Vuuren, 2014. "Transforming the European Energy System: Member States’ Prospects Within the EU Framework," Working Papers, Fondazione Eni Enrico Mattei 2014.14, Fondazione Eni Enrico Mattei.
    8. Brigitte Knopf & Yen-Heng Henry Chen & Enrica De Cian & Hannah Förster & Amit Kanudia & Ioanna Karkatsouli & Ilkka Keppo & Tiina Koljonen & Katja Schumacher & Detlef van Vuuren, 2014. "Beyond 2020 - Strategies and Costs for Transforming the European Energy System," Working Papers, Fondazione Eni Enrico Mattei 2014.15, Fondazione Eni Enrico Mattei.

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