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Oil and natural gas prices and greenhouse gas emission mitigation

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  • van Ruijven, Bas
  • van Vuuren, Detlef P.
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    Abstract

    The hikes in hydrocarbon prices during the last years have lead to concern about investment choices in the energy system and uncertainty about the costs for mitigation of greenhouse gas emissions. On the one hand, high prices of oil and natural gas increase the use of coal; on the other hand, the cost difference between fossil-based energy and non-carbon energy options decreases. We use the global energy model TIMER to explore the energy system impacts of exogenously forced low, medium and high hydrocarbon price scenarios, with and without climate policy. We find that without climate policy high hydrocarbon prices drive electricity production from natural gas to coal. In the transport sector, high hydrocarbon prices lead to the introduction of alternative fuels, especially biofuels and coal-based hydrogen. This leads to increased emissions of CO2. With climate policy, high hydrocarbon prices cause a shift in electricity production from a dominant position of natural gas with carbon capture and sequestration (CCS) to coal-with-CCS, nuclear and wind. In the transport sector, the introduction of hydrogen opens up the possibility of CCS, leading to a higher mitigation potential at the same costs. In a more dynamic simulation of carbon price and oil price interaction the effects might be dampened somewhat.

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    Bibliographic Info

    Article provided by Elsevier in its journal Energy Policy.

    Volume (Year): 37 (2009)
    Issue (Month): 11 (November)
    Pages: 4797-4808

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    Handle: RePEc:eee:enepol:v:37:y:2009:i:11:p:4797-4808

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    Web page: http://www.elsevier.com/locate/enpol

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    Keywords: Oil price Energy scenarios Greenhouse gas emissions;

    References

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    Citations

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    Cited by:
    1. Marques, António C. & Fuinhas, José A. & Pires Manso, J.R., 2010. "Motivations driving renewable energy in European countries: A panel data approach," Energy Policy, Elsevier, vol. 38(11), pages 6877-6885, November.
    2. Alfredo Marvão Pereira & Rui M. Pereira, 2011. "On the environmental, economic and budgetary impacts of fossil fuel prices: A dynamic general equilibrium analysis of the Portuguese case," Working Papers 110, Department of Economics, College of William and Mary.
    3. Marques, António Cardoso & Fuinhas, José Alberto, 2011. "Drivers promoting renewable energy: A dynamic panel approach," Renewable and Sustainable Energy Reviews, Elsevier, vol. 15(3), pages 1601-1608, April.
    4. Nema, Pragya & Nema, Sameer & Roy, Priyanka, 2012. "An overview of global climate changing in current scenario and mitigation action," Renewable and Sustainable Energy Reviews, Elsevier, vol. 16(4), pages 2329-2336.
    5. António Marques & José Fuinhas & José Manso, 2011. "A Quantile Approach to Identify Factors Promoting Renewable Energy in European Countries," Environmental & Resource Economics, European Association of Environmental and Resource Economists, vol. 49(3), pages 351-366, July.

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