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Tracking global fuel supply, CO2 emissions and sustainable development

Author

Listed:
  • Liam Wagner

    (Department of Economics, University of Queensland)

  • Ian Ross

    (IMB, University of Queensland)

  • John Foster

    (Department of Economics, University of Queensland)

  • Ben Hankamer

    (IMB, University of Queensland)

Abstract

Reducing CO2 emissions is imperative to stay within the 2oC global warming ‘safe limit’ of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change. However to ensure social and political stability, these reductions must be aligned with fuel security and economic growth. Here an advanced multifactorial model is used to forecast global energy demand, based on global population, current energy use and economic growth rates allowing a critical analysis of global energy use patterns. A severe upward pressure on global energy demand results from the combined interplay of increasing population and continuing economic growth. The predictive output highlights (i) the potential for an exponential increase of fuel consumption (ii) serious fossil fuel limitations from 2033 onward, (iii) implications for CO2 emission reduction in a ‘pro-growth’ global economy and (iv) poverty alleviation. These findings place economists and environmentalists on the same side and establish a reference to guide sustainable development.

Suggested Citation

  • Liam Wagner & Ian Ross & John Foster & Ben Hankamer, 2013. "Tracking global fuel supply, CO2 emissions and sustainable development," Energy Economics and Management Group Working Papers 7-2013, School of Economics, University of Queensland, Australia.
    • Handle: RePEc:qld:uqeemg:7-2013
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    File URL: http://www.uq.edu.au/eemg/docs/workingpapers/2013-07.pdf
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    References listed on IDEAS

    as
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    More about this item

    Keywords

    Energy Demand; Fossil Fuels; Economic Growth; Climate Change; Equilibrium correction Model; Time Series;
    All these keywords.

    JEL classification:

    • Q41 - Agricultural and Natural Resource Economics; Environmental and Ecological Economics - - Energy - - - Demand and Supply; Prices
    • Q32 - Agricultural and Natural Resource Economics; Environmental and Ecological Economics - - Nonrenewable Resources and Conservation - - - Exhaustible Resources and Economic Development
    • Q43 - Agricultural and Natural Resource Economics; Environmental and Ecological Economics - - Energy - - - Energy and the Macroeconomy
    • C53 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Econometric Modeling - - - Forecasting and Prediction Models; Simulation Methods
    • O13 - Economic Development, Innovation, Technological Change, and Growth - - Economic Development - - - Agriculture; Natural Resources; Environment; Other Primary Products
    • O44 - Economic Development, Innovation, Technological Change, and Growth - - Economic Growth and Aggregate Productivity - - - Environment and Growth

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