Tracking global fuel supply, CO2 emissions and sustainable development
AbstractReducing CO2 emissions is imperative to stay within the 2oC global warming ‘safe limit’ of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change. However to ensure social and political stability, these reductions must be aligned with fuel security and economic growth. Here an advanced multifactorial model is used to forecast global energy demand, based on global population, current energy use and economic growth rates allowing a critical analysis of global energy use patterns. A severe upward pressure on global energy demand results from the combined interplay of increasing population and continuing economic growth. The predictive output highlights (i) the potential for an exponential increase of fuel consumption (ii) serious fossil fuel limitations from 2033 onward, (iii) implications for CO2 emission reduction in a ‘pro-growth’ global economy and (iv) poverty alleviation. These findings place economists and environmentalists on the same side and establish a reference to guide sustainable development.
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Bibliographic InfoPaper provided by School of Economics, University of Queensland, Australia in its series Energy Economics and Management Group Working Papers with number 7-2013.
Date of creation: Aug 2013
Date of revision:
Energy Demand; Fossil Fuels; Economic Growth; Climate Change; Equilibrium correction Model; Time Series;
Find related papers by JEL classification:
- Q41 - Agricultural and Natural Resource Economics; Environmental and Ecological Economics - - Energy - - - Demand and Supply; Prices
- Q32 - Agricultural and Natural Resource Economics; Environmental and Ecological Economics - - Nonrenewable Resources and Conservation - - - Exhaustible Resources and Economic Development
- Q43 - Agricultural and Natural Resource Economics; Environmental and Ecological Economics - - Energy - - - Energy and the Macroeconomy
- C53 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Econometric Modeling - - - Forecasting and Prediction Models; Simulation Methods
- O13 - Economic Development, Technological Change, and Growth - - Economic Development - - - Agriculture; Natural Resources; Environment; Other Primary Products
- O44 - Economic Development, Technological Change, and Growth - - Economic Growth and Aggregate Productivity - - - Environment and Growth
This paper has been announced in the following NEP Reports:
- NEP-AGR-2013-09-06 (Agricultural Economics)
- NEP-ALL-2013-09-06 (All new papers)
- NEP-ENE-2013-09-06 (Energy Economics)
- NEP-ENV-2013-09-06 (Environmental Economics)
- NEP-FOR-2013-09-06 (Forecasting)
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