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Dynamic Nonmetropolitan Export-Base Modeling

Author

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  • Thomas R. Harris

    (University of Nevada, Reno)

  • J. Scott Shonkwiler

    (University of Nevada, Reno)

  • George E. Ebai

    (University of Nevada, Reno)

Abstract

This paper investigated a time series export-base model of nonmetropolitan Nevada counties. Confirmatory factor analysis was used to bifurcate county employment, and county basic and nonbasic employment were tested for cointegration. Employing the Granger Representation Theorem, an error correction mechanism model was estimated. Error correction mechanism model forecasts were performed and long-run forecasts were evaluated. Given current microcomputer hardware and software, this paper provides a procedure to conduct dynamic rural impact analysis by employing a dynamic export-base model.

Suggested Citation

  • Thomas R. Harris & J. Scott Shonkwiler & George E. Ebai, 1999. "Dynamic Nonmetropolitan Export-Base Modeling," The Review of Regional Studies, Southern Regional Science Association, vol. 29(2), pages 115-138, Fall.
    • Handle: RePEc:rre:publsh:v:29:y:1999:i:2:p:115-138
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    8. Dan S. Rickman & Steven R. Miller & Russell McKenzie, 2009. "Spatial and sectoral linkages in regional models: A Bayesian vector autoregression forecast evaluation," Papers in Regional Science, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 88(1), pages 29-41, March.

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