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Forecasting volatility and volume in the Tokyo stock market: The advantage of long memory models

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  • Lux, Thomas
  • Kaizoji, Taisei

Abstract

We investigate the predictability of both volatility and volume for a large sample of Japanese stocks. The particular emphasis of this paper is on assessing the performance of long memory time series models in comparison to their short-memory counterparts. Since long memory models should have a particular advantage over long forecasting horizons, we consider predictions of up to 100 days ahead. In most respects, the long memory models (ARFIMA, FIGARCH and the recently introduced multifractal models) dominate over GARCH and ARMA models. However, while FIGARCH and ARFIMA also have a number of cases with dramatic failures of their forecasts, the multifractal model does not suffer from this shortcoming and its performance practically always improves upon the na?ve forecast provided by historical volatility. As a somewhat surprising result, we also find that, for FIGARCH and ARFIMA models, pooled estimates (i.e. averages of parameter estimates from a sample of time series) give much better results than individually estimated models. --

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Bibliographic Info

Paper provided by Christian-Albrechts-University of Kiel, Department of Economics in its series Economics Working Papers with number 2004,05.

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Date of creation: 2004
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Handle: RePEc:zbw:cauewp:1936

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Related research

Keywords: Forecasting; Long memory models; Volume; Volatility;

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References

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  1. Dimson, Elroy & Marsh, Paul, 1990. "Volatility forecasting without data-snooping," Journal of Banking & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 14(2-3), pages 399-421, August.
  2. Laurent Calvet & Adlai Fisher, 2002. "Multifractality In Asset Returns: Theory And Evidence," The Review of Economics and Statistics, MIT Press, vol. 84(3), pages 381-406, August.
  3. Thomas Lux, 2003. "The Multi-Fractal Model of Asset Returns:Its Estimation via GMM and Its Use for Volatility Forecasting," Computing in Economics and Finance 2003 14, Society for Computational Economics.
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  16. Man, K. S., 2003. "Long memory time series and short term forecasts," International Journal of Forecasting, Elsevier, vol. 19(3), pages 477-491.
  17. Basak, Gopal K & Chan, Ngai Hang & Palma, Wilfredo, 2001. "The Approximation of Long-Memory Processes by an ARMA Model," Journal of Forecasting, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 20(6), pages 367-89, September.
  18. Ser-Huang Poon & Clive W.J. Granger, 2003. "Forecasting Volatility in Financial Markets: A Review," Journal of Economic Literature, American Economic Association, vol. 41(2), pages 478-539, June.
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  20. Adlai Fisher & Laurent Calvet & Benoit Mandelbrot, 1997. "Multifractality of Deutschemark/US Dollar Exchange Rates," Cowles Foundation Discussion Papers 1166, Cowles Foundation for Research in Economics, Yale University.
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