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Estimating short and long-run relationships: a guide for the applied economist

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B. Bhaskara Rao

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Abstract

Many applied economists face problems in selecting an appropriate technique to estimate short and long-run relationships with the time series methods. This article reviews three alternative approaches viz., general to specific, vector autoregressions and the vector error correction models. As in other methodological controversies, definite answers are difficult. It is suggested that if these techniques are seen as tools to summarize data, as in Smith (2000), often there maybe only minor differences in their estimates. Therefore a computationally attractive technique is likely to be popular.

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Article provided by Taylor and Francis Journals in its journal Applied Economics.

Volume (Year): 39 (2007)
Issue (Month): 13 ()
Pages: 1613-1625
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Handle: RePEc:taf:applec:v:39:y:2007:i:13:p:1613-1625

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  1. Hendry, David F. & Pagan, Adrian R. & Sargan, J.Denis, 1984. "Dynamic specification," Handbook of Econometrics, in: Z. Griliches† & M. D. Intriligator (ed.), Handbook of Econometrics, edition 1, volume 2, chapter 18, pages 1023-1100 Elsevier. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
  2. Pesaran, M.H. & Smith, R., 1992. "The Interaction Between Theory and Observation in Economics," Cambridge Working Papers in Economics 9223, Faculty of Economics, University of Cambridge.
  3. Sims, Christopher A, 1980. "Macroeconomics and Reality," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 48(1), pages 1-48, January. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
  4. M. Hashem Pesaran & Yongcheol Shin & Richard J. Smith, 2001. "Bounds testing approaches to the analysis of level relationships," Journal of Applied Econometrics, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 16(3), pages 289-326. [Downloadable!]
  5. Engle, Robert F & Granger, Clive W J, 1987. "Co-integration and Error Correction: Representation, Estimation, and Testing," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 55(2), pages 251-76, March. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
  6. Pesaran, M.H. & Shin, Y., 1995. "An Autoregressive Distributed Lag Modelling Approach to Cointegration Analysis," Cambridge Working Papers in Economics 9514, Faculty of Economics, University of Cambridge.
  7. Smith, Ron P, 1999. "Unit Roots and All That: The Impact of Time-Series Methods on Macroeconomics," Journal of Economic Methodology, Taylor and Francis Journals, vol. 6(2), pages 239-58, July.
  8. Phillips, Peter C B & Hansen, Bruce E, 1990. "Statistical Inference in Instrumental Variables Regression with I(1) Processes," Review of Economic Studies, Blackwell Publishing, vol. 57(1), pages 99-125, January. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
  9. Harvey, Andrew, 1997. "Trends, Cycles and Autoregressions," Economic Journal, Royal Economic Society, vol. 107(440), pages 192-201, January. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
  10. Kevin D. Hoover & Stephen J. Perez, . "Data Mining Reconsidered: Encompassing And The General-To-Specific Approach To Specification Search," Department of Economics 97-27, California Davis - Department of Economics. [Downloadable!]
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  11. Alogoskoufis, George & Smith, Ron, 1991. " On Error Correction Models: Specification, Interpretation, Estimation," Journal of Economic Surveys, Blackwell Publishing, vol. 5(1), pages 97-128.
  12. Mohsen Bahmani-Oskooee & Hafez Rehman, 2005. "Stability of the money demand function in Asian developing countries," Applied Economics, Taylor and Francis Journals, vol. 37(7), pages 773-792, April. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
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  1. Mark Frank, 2009. "Income Inequality, Human Capital, and Income Growth: Evidence from a State-Level VAR Analysis," Atlantic Economic Journal, International Atlantic Economic Society, vol. 37(2), pages 173-185, June. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
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