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Estimating short and long-run relationships: a guide for the applied economist

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  • B. Bhaskara Rao

Abstract

Many applied economists face problems in selecting an appropriate technique to estimate short and long-run relationships with the time series methods. This article reviews three alternative approaches viz., general to specific, vector autoregressions and the vector error correction models. As in other methodological controversies, definite answers are difficult. It is suggested that if these techniques are seen as tools to summarize data, as in Smith (2000), often there maybe only minor differences in their estimates. Therefore a computationally attractive technique is likely to be popular.

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Bibliographic Info

Article provided by Taylor and Francis Journals in its journal Applied Economics.

Volume (Year): 39 (2007)
Issue (Month): 13 ()
Pages: 1613-1625

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Handle: RePEc:taf:applec:v:39:y:2007:i:13:p:1613-1625

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  1. Hendry, David F. & Pagan, Adrian R. & Sargan, J.Denis, 1984. "Dynamic specification," Handbook of Econometrics, in: Z. Griliches† & M. D. Intriligator (ed.), Handbook of Econometrics, edition 1, volume 2, chapter 18, pages 1023-1100 Elsevier.
  2. Sims, Christopher A, 1980. "Macroeconomics and Reality," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 48(1), pages 1-48, January.
  3. Kevin D. Hoover & Stephen J. Perez, 1999. "Data mining reconsidered: encompassing and the general-to-specific approach to specification search," Econometrics Journal, Royal Economic Society, vol. 2(2), pages 167-191.
  4. M. Hashem Pesaran & Yongcheol Shin & Richard J. Smith, 2001. "Bounds testing approaches to the analysis of level relationships," Journal of Applied Econometrics, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 16(3), pages 289-326.
  5. Engle, Robert F & Granger, Clive W J, 1987. "Co-integration and Error Correction: Representation, Estimation, and Testing," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 55(2), pages 251-76, March.
  6. Pesaran, M.H. & Shin, Y., 1995. "An Autoregressive Distributed Lag Modelling Approach to Cointegration Analysis," Cambridge Working Papers in Economics 9514, Faculty of Economics, University of Cambridge.
  7. Phillips, Peter C B & Hansen, Bruce E, 1990. "Statistical Inference in Instrumental Variables Regression with I(1) Processes," Review of Economic Studies, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 57(1), pages 99-125, January.
  8. Harvey, Andrew, 1997. "Trends, Cycles and Autoregressions," Economic Journal, Royal Economic Society, vol. 107(440), pages 192-201, January.
  9. Alogoskoufis, George & Smith, Ron, 1991. " On Error Correction Models: Specification, Interpretation, Estimation," Journal of Economic Surveys, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 5(1), pages 97-128.
  10. Mohsen Bahmani-Oskooee & Hafez Rehman, 2005. "Stability of the money demand function in Asian developing countries," Applied Economics, Taylor and Francis Journals, vol. 37(7), pages 773-792.
  11. Pesaran, M.H. & Smith, R., 1992. "The Interaction Between Theory and Observation in Economics," Cambridge Working Papers in Economics 9223, Faculty of Economics, University of Cambridge.
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Cited by:
  1. Fabrizio Balassone & Maura Francese & Angelo Pace, 2011. "Public Debt and Economic Growth in Italy," Quaderni di storia economica (Economic History Working Papers) 11, Bank of Italy, Economic Research and International Relations Area.
  2. Marcus Scheiblecker, 2012. "Between Cointegration and Multicointegration. Modelling Time Series Dynamics by Cumulative Error Correction Models," WIFO Working Papers 431, WIFO.
  3. Rao, B. Bhaskara & Paradiso, Antonio, 2011. "Estimates of the US Phillips curve with the general to specific method," MPRA Paper 28411, University Library of Munich, Germany.
  4. Mark Frank, 2009. "Income Inequality, Human Capital, and Income Growth: Evidence from a State-Level VAR Analysis," Atlantic Economic Journal, International Atlantic Economic Society, vol. 37(2), pages 173-185, June.
  5. Jamil, Faisal & Ahmad, Eatzaz, 2011. "Income and price elasticities of electricity demand: Aggregate and sector-wise analyses," Energy Policy, Elsevier, vol. 39(9), pages 5519-5527, September.
  6. Paradiso, Antonio & Rao, B. Bhaskara & Ventura, Marco, 2011. "Estimates of the Sticky-Information Phillips Curve for the USA with the General to Specific Method," MPRA Paper 28867, University Library of Munich, Germany.

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