Advanced Search
MyIDEAS: Login

Real exchange rates and the relative prices of non-traded and traded goods: an empirical analysis

Contents:

Author Info

  • Jan J J Groen
  • Clare Lombardelli

Abstract

This paper provides an empirical analysis of the decomposition of UK real exchange rates into the relative price of traded goods and the ratio of the relative price of non-traded to traded goods, and tests the prediction that deviations from the law of one price in tradable goods dominate real exchange rate variability only in the short run. UK bilateral real exchange rates are examined relative to a sample of six main OECD partners. The existence of a long-run relationship between real exchange rates and these corresponding relative price ratios is analysed using cointegrated vector autoregressive models. These show only limited evidence of a cointegrating relationship. The paper quantifies the severity of the deviations from the law of one price, and shows that these deviations are persistent relative to the length of the sample period. This motivates the use of a multi-country panel cointegration-testing framework, which produces evidence of a long-run relationship between the real exchange rate and the non-tradable component.

Download Info

If you experience problems downloading a file, check if you have the proper application to view it first. In case of further problems read the IDEAS help page. Note that these files are not on the IDEAS site. Please be patient as the files may be large.
File URL: http://www.bankofengland.co.uk/research/Documents/workingpapers/2004/WP223.pdf
Download Restriction: no

Bibliographic Info

Paper provided by Bank of England in its series Bank of England working papers with number 223.

as in new window
Length:
Date of creation: Jun 2004
Date of revision:
Handle: RePEc:boe:boeewp:223

Contact details of provider:
Postal: Publications Group Bank of England Threadneedle Street London EC2R 8AH
Phone: +44 (0)171 601 4030
Fax: +44 (0)171 601 5196
Email:
Web page: http://www.bankofengland.co.uk/
More information through EDIRC

Related research

Keywords:

This paper has been announced in the following NEP Reports:

References

References listed on IDEAS
Please report citation or reference errors to , or , if you are the registered author of the cited work, log in to your RePEc Author Service profile, click on "citations" and make appropriate adjustments.:
as in new window
  1. Jean Imbs & Haroon Mumtaz & Morten O. Ravn & Helene Rey, 2003. "PPP Strikes Back: Aggregation and the Real Exchange Rate," IEHAS Discussion Papers 0307, Institute of Economics, Centre for Economic and Regional Studies, Hungarian Academy of Sciences.
  2. Gonzalo, Jesus & Granger, Clive W J, 1995. "Estimation of Common Long-Memory Components in Cointegrated Systems," Journal of Business & Economic Statistics, American Statistical Association, vol. 13(1), pages 27-35, January.
  3. Meese, R. & Rogoff, K., 1988. "Was It Real? The Exchange Rate-Interest Differential Ralation Over The Modern Floating-Rate Period," Working papers 368, Wisconsin Madison - Social Systems.
  4. Gonzalo, Jesus & Ng, Serena, 2001. "A systematic framework for analyzing the dynamic effects of permanent and transitory shocks," Journal of Economic Dynamics and Control, Elsevier, vol. 25(10), pages 1527-1546, October.
  5. Otero, Jesus & Smith, Jeremy, 2000. "Testing for cointegration: power versus frequency of observation -- further Monte Carlo results," Economics Letters, Elsevier, vol. 67(1), pages 5-9, April.
  6. Beyer, A. & Doornik, J.A. & Hendry, D.F., 2000. "Constructing Historical Euro-Zone Data," Economics Working Papers eco2000/10, European University Institute.
  7. Benigno, Gianluca & Christoph Thoenissen, 2002. "Equilibrium Exchange Rates and Supply Side Performance," Royal Economic Society Annual Conference 2002 19, Royal Economic Society.
  8. Francis X. Diebold & Peter F. Christoffersen, 1997. "Cointegration and Long-Horizon Forecasting," IMF Working Papers 97/61, International Monetary Fund.
  9. Johansen, Soren, 1991. "Estimation and Hypothesis Testing of Cointegration Vectors in Gaussian Vector Autoregressive Models," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 59(6), pages 1551-80, November.
  10. Maurice Obstfeld and Alan M. Taylor., 1997. "Nonlinear Aspects of Goods-Market Arbitrage and Adjustment: Heckscher's Commodity Points Revisited," Center for International and Development Economics Research (CIDER) Working Papers C97-088, University of California at Berkeley.
  11. Pierre Perron & Robert J. Shiller, 1984. "Testing the Random Walk Hypothesis: Power Versus Frequency of Observation," Cowles Foundation Discussion Papers 732, Cowles Foundation for Research in Economics, Yale University.
  12. Groen, Jan J J, 2005. "Exchange Rate Predictability and Monetary Fundamentals in a Small Multi-country Panel," Journal of Money, Credit and Banking, Blackwell Publishing, vol. 37(3), pages 495-516, June.
  13. J.J.J. Groen & F. Kleibergen, 2001. "Likelihood-Based Cointegration Analysis in Panels of Vector Error Correction Models," WO Research Memoranda (discontinued) 646, Netherlands Central Bank, Research Department.
  14. O'Connell, Paul G. J., 1998. "The overvaluation of purchasing power parity," Journal of International Economics, Elsevier, vol. 44(1), pages 1-19, February.
  15. Charles Engel, 1995. "Accounting for U.S. Real Exchange Rate Changes," NBER Working Papers 5394, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
  16. Engle, Robert F & Granger, Clive W J, 1987. "Co-integration and Error Correction: Representation, Estimation, and Testing," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 55(2), pages 251-76, March.
  17. Mark, Nelson C. & Choi, Doo-Yull, 1997. "Real exchange-rate prediction over long horizons," Journal of International Economics, Elsevier, vol. 43(1-2), pages 29-60, August.
  18. Taylor, Mark P & Peel, David A & Sarno, Lucio, 2001. "Nonlinear Mean-Reversion in Real Exchange Rates: Toward a Solution to the Purchasing Power Parity Puzzles," International Economic Review, Department of Economics, University of Pennsylvania and Osaka University Institute of Social and Economic Research Association, vol. 42(4), pages 1015-42, November.
  19. Bergstrand, Jeffrey H, 1991. "Structural Determinants of Real Exchange Rates and National Price Levels: Some Empirical Evidence," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 81(1), pages 325-34, March.
  20. Jeremy Berkowitz & Lorenzo Giorgianni, 1996. "Long-horizon exchange rate predictability?," Finance and Economics Discussion Series 96-39, Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System (U.S.).
  21. Anindya Banerjee & Massimiliano Marcellino & Chiara Osbat, 2004. "Some cautions on the use of panel methods for integrated series of macroeconomic data," Econometrics Journal, Royal Economic Society, vol. 7(2), pages 322-340, December.
  22. Bhagwati, Jagdish N, 1984. "Why Are Services Cheaper in the Poor Countries?," Economic Journal, Royal Economic Society, vol. 94(374), pages 279-86, June.
  23. Atsushi Inoue & Lutz Kilian, 2002. "Bootstrapping Autoregressive Processes with Possible Unit Roots," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 70(1), pages 377-391, January.
  24. Lutz Kilian, 1998. "Small-Sample Confidence Intervals For Impulse Response Functions," The Review of Economics and Statistics, MIT Press, vol. 80(2), pages 218-230, May.
  25. Jan J. J. Groen, 1999. "Long horizon predictability of exchange rates: Is it for real?," Empirical Economics, Springer, vol. 24(3), pages 451-469.
  26. James G. MacKinnon, 1990. "Critical Values for Cointegration Tests," Working Papers 1227, Queen's University, Department of Economics.
  27. Georgios E. Chortareas & Rebecca L. Driver, 2001. "PPP and the real exchange rate-real interest rate differential puzzle revisited: evidence from non-stationary panel data," Bank of England working papers 138, Bank of England.
  28. Rolf Larsson & Johan Lyhagen & Mickael Lothgren, 2001. "Likelihood-based cointegration tests in heterogeneous panels," Econometrics Journal, Royal Economic Society, vol. 4(1), pages 41.
  29. Groen, Jan J J, 2002. " Cointegration and the Monetary Exchange Rate Model Revisited," Oxford Bulletin of Economics and Statistics, Department of Economics, University of Oxford, vol. 64(4), pages 361-80, September.
  30. Caroline M. Betts & Timothy J. Kehoe, 2008. "Real exchange rate movements and the relative price of non-traded goods," Staff Report 415, Federal Reserve Bank of Minneapolis.
  31. Meese, Richard A. & Rogoff, Kenneth, 1983. "Empirical exchange rate models of the seventies : Do they fit out of sample?," Journal of International Economics, Elsevier, vol. 14(1-2), pages 3-24, February.
Full references (including those not matched with items on IDEAS)

Citations

Blog mentions

As found by EconAcademics.org, the blog aggregator for Economics research:
  1. Is Inflation in Argentina Above 100%?
    by Nicolas Cachanosky in Punto de Vista Economico on 2013-04-25 03:10:38
Citations are extracted by the CitEc Project, subscribe to its RSS feed for this item.
as in new window

Cited by:
  1. Jan J J Groen & Akito Matsumoto, 2004. "Real exchange rate persistence and systematic monetary policy behaviour," Bank of England working papers 231, Bank of England.
  2. Marçal, Emerson Fernandes, 2013. "Exchange rate misalignments, interdependence, crises, and currency wars: an empirical assessment," Textos para discussão 348, Escola de Economia de São Paulo, Getulio Vargas Foundation (Brazil).

Lists

This item is not listed on Wikipedia, on a reading list or among the top items on IDEAS.

Statistics

Access and download statistics

Corrections

When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:boe:boeewp:223. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.

For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: (Publications Team).

If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.

If references are entirely missing, you can add them using this form.

If the full references list an item that is present in RePEc, but the system did not link to it, you can help with this form.

If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.

Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.