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How do Young People Choose College Majors?

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Author Info
MONTMARQUETTE, Claude
CANNINGS, Kathy
MAHSEREDJIAN, Sophie

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Abstract

Previous studies on the determinants of the choice of college major have assumed a constant probability of success across majors or a constant earnings stream across majors. Our model disregards these two restrictive assumptions in computing an expected earnings variable to explain the probability that a student will choose a specific major among four choices of concentrations. The construction of an expected earnings variable requires information on the student s perceived probability of success, the predicted earnings of graduates in all majors and the student s expected earnings if he (she) fails to complete a college program. Using data from the National Longitudinal Survey of Youth, we evaluate the chances of success in all majors for all the individuals in the sample. Second, the individuals' predicted earnings of graduates in all majors are obtained using Rumberger and Thomas's (1993) regression estimates from a 1987 Survey of Recent College Graduates. Third, we obtain idiosyncratic estimates of earnings alternative of not attending college or by dropping out with a condition derived from our college major decision-making model applied to our sample of college students. Finally, with a mixed multinominal logit model, we explain the individuals' choice of a major. The results of the paper show that the expected earnings variable is essential in the choice of a college major. There are, however, significant differences in the impact of expected earnings by gender and race.

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Publisher Info
Paper provided by Universite de Montreal, Departement de sciences economiques in its series Cahiers de recherche with number 9719.

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Length: 29 pages
Date of creation: 1997
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Handle: RePEc:mtl:montde:9719

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Related research
Keywords: college majors; excted idiosyncratic earnings; mixed multinominal logit model;

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Find related papers by JEL classification:
I20 - Health, Education, and Welfare - - Education - - - General

References listed on IDEAS
Please report citation or reference errors to , or , if you are the registered author of the cited work, log in to your RePEc Author Service profile, click on "citations" and make appropriate adjustments.:

  1. Rogers, Alan R, 1994. "Evolution of Time Preference by Natural Selection," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 84(3), pages 460-81, June. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
  2. Mark C. Berger, 1988. "Predicted future earnings and choice of college major," Industrial and Labor Relations Review, ILR Review, ILR School, Cornell University, vol. 41(3), pages 418-429, April.
  3. Peter Rupert & Mark E. Schweitzer & Eric Severance-Lossin & Erin Turner, 1996. "Earnings, education and experience," Economic Review, Federal Reserve Bank of Cleveland, issue Q IV, pages 2-12. [Downloadable!]
  4. Hartog, Joop & Pfann, Gerard & Ridder, Geert, 1989. "(Non-)graduation and the earnings function : An inquiry on self-selection," European Economic Review, Elsevier, vol. 33(7), pages 1373-1395, September. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
  5. Francine D. Blau, 1990. "Career Plans and Expectations of Young Women and Men: The Earnings Gap and Labor Force Participation," NBER Working Papers 3445, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
  6. Cannings, K. & Montmarquette, C. & Mahseredjian, S., 1994. "Major Choice: Undergraduate Concentrations and the Probability of Graduation," Cahiers de recherche 9419, Universite de Montreal, Departement de sciences economiques. [Downloadable!]
    Other versions:
  7. Zalokar, Nadja, 1988. "Male-Female Differences in Occupational Choice and the Demand for General and Occupation-Specific Human Capital," Economic Inquiry, Oxford University Press, vol. 26(1), pages 59-74, January.
  8. Polachek, Solomon William, 1981. "Occupational Self-Selection: A Human Capital Approach to Sex Differences in Occupational Structure," The Review of Economics and Statistics, MIT Press, vol. 63(1), pages 60-69, February. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
  9. Orazem, Peter F & Mattila, J Peter, 1986. "Occupational Entry and Uncertainty: Males Leaving High School," The Review of Economics and Statistics, MIT Press, vol. 68(2), pages 265-73, May. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
    Other versions:
  10. repec:att:wimass:199110 is not listed on IDEAS
  11. Berger, Mark C., 1988. "Cohort size effects on earnings: Differences by college major," Economics of Education Review, Elsevier, vol. 7(4), pages 375-383, August. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
  12. Paglin, Morton & Rufolo, Anthony M, 1990. "Heterogeneous Human Capital, Occupational Choice, and Male-Female Earnings Differences," Journal of Labor Economics, University of Chicago Press, vol. 8(1), pages 123-44, January. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
  13. Altonji, Joseph G, 1993. "The Demand for and Return to Education When Education Outcomes Are Uncertain," Journal of Labor Economics, University of Chicago Press, vol. 11(1), pages 48-83, January. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
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  14. Engle, Robert F & Hendry, David F & Richard, Jean-Francois, 1983. "Exogeneity," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 51(2), pages 277-304, March. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
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  15. Kodde, David A, 1986. "Uncertainty and the Demand for Education," The Review of Economics and Statistics, MIT Press, vol. 68(3), pages 460-67, August. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
  16. Blakemore, Arthur E & Low, Stuart A, 1984. "Sex Differences in Occupational Selection: The Case of College Majors," The Review of Economics and Statistics, MIT Press, vol. 66(1), pages 157-63, February. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
  17. Rumberger, Russell W. & Thomas, Scott L., 1993. "The economic returns to college major, quality and performance: A multilevel analysis of recent graduates," Economics of Education Review, Elsevier, vol. 12(1), pages 1-19, March. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
Full references

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(explanations, Please report citation or reference errors to , or , if you are the registered author of the cited work, log in to your RePEc Author Service profile, click on "citations" and make appropriate adjustments.)

  1. Ham, Roger & Junankar, Pramod N. (Raja) & Wells, Robert, 2009. "Occupational Choice: Personality Matters," IZA Discussion Papers 4105, Institute for the Study of Labor (IZA). [Downloadable!]
  2. Claude Montmarquette & Laure Thomas, 2005. "La pénurie de travailleurs qualifiés," CIRANO Project Reports 2005rp-03, CIRANO. [Downloadable!]
  3. Bratti, M., 2001. "Does the choice of university matter? A study of the differences across uk universities in life sciences students' degree performance," The Warwick Economics Research Paper Series (TWERPS) 584, University of Warwick, Department of Economics. [Downloadable!]
    Other versions:
  4. James A. Freeman & Barry T. Hirsch, 2007. "College Majors and the Knowledge Content of Jobs," IZA Discussion Papers 2941, Institute for the Study of Labor (IZA). [Downloadable!]
    Other versions:
  5. Pouliakas, Konstantinos & Panos, Georgios & Zangelidis, Alexandros, 2009. "The Inter-Related Dynamics of Dual Job Holding, Human Capital and Occupational Choice," MPRA Paper 16859, University Library of Munich, Germany. [Downloadable!]
    Other versions:
  6. Massimiliano Bratti, 2006. "Social Class and Undergraduate Degree Subject in the UK," IZA Discussion Papers 1979, Institute for the Study of Labor (IZA). [Downloadable!]
    Other versions:
  7. Pouliakas, Konstantinos & Livanos, Ilias, 2008. "The Gender Wage Gap as a Function of Educational Degree Choices in Greece," MPRA Paper 14168, University Library of Munich, Germany, revised 19 Mar 2009. [Downloadable!]
  8. Boudarbat, Brahim, 2004. "Earnings and Community College Field of Study Choice in Canada," IZA Discussion Papers 1156, Institute for the Study of Labor (IZA). [Downloadable!]
  9. Brahim Boudarbat & Claude Montmarquette, 2007. "Choice of Fields of Study of Canadian University Graduates: The Role of Gender and their Parents’ Education," IZA Discussion Papers 2552, Institute for the Study of Labor (IZA). [Downloadable!]
  10. Kucel, Aleksander & Byrne, Delma, 2008. "Are Over-educated People Insiders or Outsiders? A Case of Job Search Methods and Over-education in UK," Papers WP258, Economic and Social Research Institute (ESRI). [Downloadable!]
  11. Júlia Varga, 2006. "The Role of Labour Market Expectations and Admission Probabilities in Students' Application Decisions on Higher Education: The Case of Hungary," Education Economics, Taylor and Francis Journals, vol. 14(3), pages 309-327, September. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
    Other versions:
  12. Changhui Kang, 2004. "University Prestige and Choice of Major Field: Evidence from South Korea," Econometric Society 2004 Far Eastern Meetings 544, Econometric Society. [Downloadable!]
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