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Major Choices : Undergraduate Concentrations and the Probability of Graduation

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  • Kathy Cannings
  • Sophie Mahseredjian
  • Claude Montmarquette

    ()

Abstract

We develop a model of the decision-making process in which the perceived probability of success in a major is the central determinant of the choice of a major. Using 1979-1987 data from the National Longitudinal Survey of Youth, we employ a two-step procedure that first evaluates, for all the individuals in the sample, the chances of success in all majors. Second, with a multinominal logit model of discrete choice, we explain the individuals choice of a major with his or her estimated probability of success and characteristics. This paper shows that the choice of college concentration depends on the perceived probability of success in a particular concentration. There are, however significant differences across groups and for students who have a high probability of success in all majors. Nous développons un modèle de décision où la probabilité attendue du succès dans un champ d'éducation devient l'élément central du choix de cette filière. Utilisant des données longitudinales américaines de 1979 à 1987, nous employons une procédure à deux étapes pour évaluer dans un premier temps, pour chacun des individus, leurs chances de réussite dans chacune des filières d'éducation considérées. Par la suite, à l'aide d'un modèle logit multinominal de choix discrets, nous expliquons les choix individuels relativement à ces probabilités anticipées de succès, de même que diverses caractéristiques individuelles et socio-économiques des étudiants. L'étude montre que le choix d'une filière d'éducation dépend de la probabilité perçue du succès dans cette filière particulière. Il y a, par ailleurs, des différences significatives selon les groupes sociaux et selon le talent des étudiants.

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Bibliographic Info

Paper provided by CIRANO in its series CIRANO Working Papers with number 94s-09.

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Date of creation: 01 Oct 1994
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Handle: RePEc:cir:cirwor:94s-09

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Keywords: Choice of college concentration; Probality of success; Multinominal logit model; Choix de filières éducationnelles ; Probabilité de succès ; Modèle multinominal logit;

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Cited by:
  1. Ghysels, E. & Granger, C.W.J. & Siklos, P.L., 1995. "Is Seasonal Adjustment a Linear or Nonlinear Data Filtring Process," Cahiers de recherche 9517, Centre interuniversitaire de recherche en économie quantitative, CIREQ.
  2. Bonomo, Marco Antônio Cesar & Garcia, René, 1999. "Tests of conditional asset pricing models in the Brazilian stock market," Economics Working Papers (Ensaios Economicos da EPGE) 350, FGV/EPGE Escola Brasileira de Economia e Finanças, Getulio Vargas Foundation (Brazil).
  3. MONTMARQUETTE, Claude & CANNINGS, Kathy & MAHSEREDJIAN, Sophie, 1997. "How do Young People Choose College Majors?," Cahiers de recherche 9719, Universite de Montreal, Departement de sciences economiques.
  4. Sprumont, Y., 1995. "On the Game-Theoretic Structure of Public-Good Economies," Cahiers de recherche 9519, Universite de Montreal, Departement de sciences economiques.
  5. Rochat, Denis & Demeulemeester, Jean-Luc, 2001. "Rational choice under unequal constraints: the example of Belgian higher education," Economics of Education Review, Elsevier, vol. 20(1), pages 15-26, February.
  6. Jocelyn Martel, 1994. "More on the Impact of Bankruptcy Reform in Canada," CIRANO Working Papers 94s-17, CIRANO.

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