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Establishing the Presence of a Risk Premium in the Cocoa Futures Market: An Econometric Analysis

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Author Info
Armah, Stephen E.
Abstract

Previous attempts at identifying and estimating a time-varying risk premium in the cocoa futures market yielded conflicting results. Using a longer series that includes the most recent cash and futures data, the existence of a time-varying risk premium in the cocoa futures market is re-investigated using LM ARCH tests and a Quadratic ARCH in Mean Error Correction Model. In contrast to available research the time series properties of the data are carefully accounted for by employing the most recent econometric techniques in testing for the presence of a risk premium. No evidence is found in support of a positive time-varying [or constant] risk premium in the cocoa futures market at conventional significance levels. The result suggests that cocoa producing countries have one less cost to consider in deciding whether or not to hedge cocoa price risk using futures contracts.

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Publisher Info
Paper provided by American Agricultural Economics Association (New Name 2008: Agricultural and Applied Economics Association) in its series 2008 Annual Meeting, July 27-29, 2008, Orlando, Florida with number 6778.

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Date of creation: 2008
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Handle: RePEc:ags:aaea08:6778

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Related research
Keywords: Cocoa; Futures markets; time-varying risk premium; error-correction model; Agribusiness; Marketing; M;

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References listed on IDEAS
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  1. Domowitz, Ian & Hakkio, Craig S., 1985. "Conditional variance and the risk premium in the foreign exchange market," Journal of International Economics, Elsevier, vol. 19(1-2), pages 47-66, August. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
  2. McKenzie, Andrew M & Holt, Matthew T, 2002. "Market Efficiency in Agricultural Futures Markets," Applied Economics, Taylor and Francis Journals, vol. 34(12), pages 1519-32, August. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
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  3. Samuel Malone, 2005. "Managing Default Risk for Commodity Dependent Countries: Price Hedging in an Optimizing Model," Economics Series Working Papers 246, University of Oxford, Department of Economics. [Downloadable!]
  4. Julia Campos & Neil R. Ericsson & David F. Hendry, 2005. "General-to-specific modeling: an overview and selected bibliography," International Finance Discussion Papers 838, Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System (U.S.). [Downloadable!]
  5. Beck, Stacie E, 1994. "Cointegration and Market Efficiency in Commodities Futures Markets," Applied Economics, Taylor and Francis Journals, vol. 26(3), pages 249-57, March.
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