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Time-Varying Risk Premium or Informational Inefficiency? Further Evidence in Agricultural Futures Markets

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  • Frank, Julieta
  • Garcia, Philip

Abstract

Recent research has provided mixed results regarding the presence of a time-varying risk premium in agricultural futures markets. In this paper we test for the presence of a time-varying risk premium and market efficiency focusing on the properties of the underlying data. Specifically, we examine the same markets and period used by McKenzie and Holt (2002) and extend the analysis through 2004. Our results show that accounting for the structural break in the early seventies plays a key role in the findings. In contrast to McKenzie and Holt, we find no evidence of time-varying risk premium in the four commodities analyzed. The corn market appears to be (weak form) efficient. Hogs, live cattle, and soybean meal futures contracts show evidence of inefficiency, which suggests an inability of these markets to incorporate all available information in the futures prices. Our results identify the importance of careful examination of the data as failure to do so can lead to inappropriate conclusions.

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Bibliographic Info

Paper provided by NCR-134 Conference on Applied Commodity Price Analysis, Forecasting, and Market Risk Management in its series 2005 Conference, April 18-19, 2005, St. Louis, Missouri with number 19051.

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Date of creation: 2005
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Handle: RePEc:ags:ncrfiv:19051

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Web page: http://www.agebb.missouri.edu/ncrext/ncr134/

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Keywords: Marketing;

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References

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  1. Rausser, Gordon C. & Carter, Colin A., 1982. "Futures market efficiency in the soybean complex," Department of Agricultural & Resource Economics, UC Berkeley, Working Paper Series qt7d48x9qc, Department of Agricultural & Resource Economics, UC Berkeley.
  2. Hartzmark, Michael L, 1987. "Returns to Individual Traders of Futures: Aggregate Results," Journal of Political Economy, University of Chicago Press, vol. 95(6), pages 1292-1306, December.
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Citations

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Cited by:
  1. Armah, Stephen E., 2008. "Establishing the Presence of a Risk Premium in the Cocoa Futures Market: An Econometric Analysis," 2008 Annual Meeting, July 27-29, 2008, Orlando, Florida 6778, American Agricultural Economics Association (New Name 2008: Agricultural and Applied Economics Association).
  2. Boetel, Brenda L. & Liu, Donald J., 2008. "Incorporating Structural Changes in Agricultural and Food Price Analysis: An Application to the U.S. Beef and Pork Sectors," Working Papers 44076, University of Minnesota, The Food Industry Center.
  3. Bozic, Marin & Newton, John & Thraen, Cameron S. & Gould, Brian W., 2012. "Parametric Bootstrap Tests for Futures Price and Implied Volatility Biases with Application to Rating Livestock Margin Insurance for Dairy Cattle," Staff Papers 135077, University of Minnesota, Department of Applied Economics.
  4. Prehn, Sören & Glauben, Thomas & Loy, Jens-Peter & Pies, Ingo & Will, Matthias Georg, 2014. "The impact of long-only index funds on price discovery and market performance in agricultural futures markets," IAMO Discussion Papers 147, Leibniz Institute of Agricultural Development in Central and Eastern Europe (IAMO).
  5. Adjemian, Michael K. & Garcia, Philip & Irwin, Scott & Smith, Aaron, 2013. "Non-Convergence in Domestic Commodity Futures Markets: Causes, Consequences, and Remedies," Economic Information Bulletin 155381, United States Department of Agriculture, Economic Research Service.
  6. Schnake, Kristin N. & Karali, Berna & Dorfman, Jeffrey H., 2012. "The Informational Content of Distant-Delivery Futures Contracts," Journal of Agricultural and Resource Economics, Western Agricultural Economics Association, vol. 37(2), August.
  7. Prehn, Sören & Glauben, Thomas & Loy, Jens-Peter & Pies, Ingo & Will, Matthias Georg, 2013. "Der Einfluss von Long-only-Indexfonds auf die Preisfindung und das Marktergebnis an landwirtschaftlichen Warenterminmärkten," IAMO Discussion Papers 142, Leibniz Institute of Agricultural Development in Central and Eastern Europe (IAMO).
  8. Feuz, Dillon M., 2009. "A Comparison of the Effectiveness of Using Futures, Options, LRP Insurance, or AGR-Lite Insurance to Manage Risk for Cow-calf Producers," 2009 Conference, April 20-21, 2009, St. Louis, Missouri 53046, NCCC-134 Conference on Applied Commodity Price Analysis, Forecasting, and Market Risk Management.
  9. Pandey, Ajay, . "Hedging Effectiveness of Constant and Time Varying Hedge Ratio in Indian Stock and Commodity Futures Markets," IIMA Working Papers WP2008-06-01, Indian Institute of Management Ahmedabad, Research and Publication Department.

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