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The Price-Forecasting Performance of Futures Markets for Live Cattle and Hogs: A Disaggregated Analysis

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  • Larry Martin
  • Philip Garcia

Abstract

Four hypotheses about the price-forecasting performance of live cattle and hog futures are tested using disaggregated data. Live cattle futures are found to have inadequate forecasting performance for each hypothesis and do not provide better forecasts than lagged cash prices. Live hog futures perform well for three hypotheses, but not when economic conditions are unstable. Hog futures provide better forecasts than lagged cash prices. The analysis does not support the contention that these futures markets are agencies for rational price formation.

Suggested Citation

  • Larry Martin & Philip Garcia, 1981. "The Price-Forecasting Performance of Futures Markets for Live Cattle and Hogs: A Disaggregated Analysis," American Journal of Agricultural Economics, Agricultural and Applied Economics Association, vol. 63(2), pages 209-215.
    • Handle: RePEc:oup:ajagec:v:63:y:1981:i:2:p:209-215.
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