How do young people choose college majors?
AbstractPrevious studies on the determinants of the choice of college major have assumed a constant probability of success across majors or a constant earnings stream across majors. Our model disregards these two restrictive assumptions in computing an expected earnings variable to explain the probability that a student will choose a specific major among four choices of concentrations. The construction of an expected earnings variable requires information on the student's perceived probability of success, the predicted earnings of graduates in all majors and the student's expected earnings if he (she) fails to complete a college program. Using data from the National Longitudinal Survey of Youth, we evaluate the chances of success in all majors for all the individuals in the sample. Second, the individuals' predicted earnings of graduates in all majors are obtained using Rumberger and Thomas's (1993) regression estimates from a 1987 Survey of Recent College Graduates. Third, we obtain idiosyncratic estimates of earnings alternative of not attending college or by dropping out with a condition derived from our college major decision-making model applied to our sample of college students. Finally, with a mixed multinominal logit model, we explain the individuals' choice of a major. The results of the paper show that the expected earnings variable is essential in the choice of a college major. There are, however, significant differences in the impact of expected earnings by gender and race. Les Ã©tudes antÃ©rieures sur les dÃ©terminants du choix d'une filiÃ¨re universitaire ont prÃ©sumÃ© une probabilitÃ© constante de succÃ¨s entre les diffÃ©rentes filiÃ¨res d'Ã©tudes ou des revenus constants entre les filiÃ¨res. Notre modÃ¨le dÃ©passe ces deux hypothÃ¨ses restrictives en construisant une variable de revenus anticipÃ©s pour expliquer la probabilitÃ© qu'un Ã©tudiant choisisse une filiÃ¨re parmi quatre domaines de spÃ©cialisation. La construction d'une variable de revenus anticipÃ©
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Bibliographic InfoArticle provided by Elsevier in its journal Economics of Education Review.
Volume (Year): 21 (2002)
Issue (Month): 6 (December)
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Web page: http://www.elsevier.com/locate/econedurev
Other versions of this item:
- Montmarquette, C. & Cannings, C. & Mahseredjian,S., 1997. "How do Young People Choose College Majors?," Cahiers de recherche 9719, Centre interuniversitaire de recherche en économie quantitative, CIREQ.
- MONTMARQUETTE, Claude & CANNINGS, Kathy & MAHSEREDJIAN, Sophie, 1997. "How do Young People Choose College Majors?," Cahiers de recherche 9719, Universite de Montreal, Departement de sciences economiques.
- Kathy Cannings & Sophie Mahseredjian & Claude Montmarquette, 1997. "How Do Young People Choose College Majors ?," CIRANO Working Papers 97s-38, CIRANO.
- I20 - Health, Education, and Welfare - - Education - - - General
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