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A Note on the Export-Led Growth Hypothesis: A Time Series Approach

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Author Info
Per-Ola Maneschiöld
Abstract

The export-led growth hypothesis is analysed for Argentina, Brazil, and Mexico using cointegration and causality techniques. Cointegration is found for Argentina and Mexico in both a pre-break and post-break period, where the break is related to the introduction of the NAFTA. Furthermore, the causal relationship is either bi-directional or unidirectional from export to GDP revealing support to the hypothesis and an outward oriented policy.

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Publisher Info
Article provided by Instituto de Economía. Pontificia Universidad Católica de Chile. in its journal Cuadernos de Economía.

Volume (Year): 45 (2008)
Issue (Month): 132 ()
Pages: 293-302
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Handle: RePEc:ioe:cuadec:v:45:y:2008:i:132:p:293-302

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Related research
Keywords: Export-Led Growth; Cointegration; Causality; Argentina; Brazil; Mexico;

Find related papers by JEL classification:
F43 - International Economics - - Macroeconomic Aspects of International Trade and Finance - - - Economic Growth of Open Economies
C22 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Single Equation Models; Single Variables - - - Time-Series Models; Dynamic Quantile Regressions

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  1. Dickey, David A & Fuller, Wayne A, 1981. "Likelihood Ratio Statistics for Autoregressive Time Series with a Unit Root," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 49(4), pages 1057-72, June. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
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  3. Johansen, Soren & Juselius, Katarina, 1990. "Maximum Likelihood Estimation and Inference on Cointegration--With Applications to the Demand for Money," Oxford Bulletin of Economics and Statistics, Department of Economics, University of Oxford, vol. 52(2), pages 169-210, May.
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  5. Panas, Epaminondas & Vamvoukas, George, 2002. "Further Evidence on the Export-Led Growth Hypothesis," Applied Economics Letters, Taylor and Francis Journals, vol. 9(11), pages 731-35, September. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
  6. Geweke, John & Meese, Richard & Dent, Warren, 1983. "Comparing alternative tests of causality in temporal systems : Analytic results and experimental evidence," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 21(2), pages 161-194, February. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
  7. Thornton, John, 1996. "Cointegration, causality and export-led growth in Mexico, 1895-1992," Economics Letters, Elsevier, vol. 50(3), pages 413-416, March. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
  8. Balassa, Bela, 1985. "Exports, policy choices, and economic growth in developing countries after the 1973 oil shock," Journal of Development Economics, Elsevier, vol. 18(1), pages 23-35. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
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  12. Ahmad, Jaleel & Harnhirun, Somchai, 1995. "Unit roots and cointegration in estimating causality between exports and economic growth: Empirical evidence from the ASEAN countries," Economics Letters, Elsevier, vol. 49(3), pages 329-334, September. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
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