IDEAS home Printed from https://ideas.repec.org/a/ces/ifosdt/v66y2013i01p25-32.html
   My bibliography  Save this article

Economic Forecasts Today– Possibilities and Problems

Author

Listed:
  • Wolfgang Nierhaus

Abstract

Economic forecasts estimate economic developments in the present and forthcoming year at a highly aggregated level. The focus lies on statements regarding changes in the pace of the economy and the turning points of macroeconomic variables in cyclical economic activity. Economic forecasts are conditional probability statements. The fact that conditions change constantly makes it necessary to adjust forecasts accordingly. Even if forecasts cannot dispel uncertainty regarding the future, they make it easier for companies to plan and facilitate adjustments in economic and financial policy in line with future developments.

Suggested Citation

  • Wolfgang Nierhaus, 2013. "Economic Forecasts Today– Possibilities and Problems," ifo Schnelldienst, ifo Institute - Leibniz Institute for Economic Research at the University of Munich, vol. 66(01), pages 25-32, January.
    • Handle: RePEc:ces:ifosdt:v:66:y:2013:i:01:p:25-32
    as

    Download full text from publisher

    File URL: https://www.ifo.de/DocDL/ifosd_2013_01_3.pdf
    Download Restriction: no
    ---><---

    References listed on IDEAS

    as
    1. Carmen M. Reinhart & Kenneth S. Rogoff, 2009. "Varieties of Crises and Their Dates," Introductory Chapters, in: This Time Is Different: Eight Centuries of Financial Folly, Princeton University Press.
    2. Reinhart, Karmen & Rogoff, Kenneth, 2009. ""This time is different": panorama of eight centuries of financial crises," Ekonomicheskaya Politika / Economic Policy, Russian Presidential Academy of National Economy and Public Administration, vol. 1, pages 77-114, March.
    3. Projektgruppe Gemeinschaftsdiagnose, 2008. "Deutschland am Rande einer Rezession: Gemeinschaftsdiagnose Herbst 2008," Wirtschaft im Wandel, Halle Institute for Economic Research (IWH), vol. 14(2. Sonder), pages 1-87.
    4. Klaus Abberger & Wolfgang Nierhaus, 2007. "The Ifo Business Climate and turning points of the German business cycle," ifo Schnelldienst, ifo Institute - Leibniz Institute for Economic Research at the University of Munich, vol. 60(03), pages 26-31, February.
    5. Carmen M. Reinhart & Kenneth S. Rogoff, 2014. "This Time is Different: A Panoramic View of Eight Centuries of Financial Crises," Annals of Economics and Finance, Society for AEF, vol. 15(2), pages 215-268, November.
    6. Chatfield, Chris, 1993. "Calculating Interval Forecasts: Reply," Journal of Business & Economic Statistics, American Statistical Association, vol. 11(2), pages 143-144, April.
    7. Wolfgang Nierhaus & Jan-Egbert Sturm, 2003. "Methods of business cycle forecasting," ifo Schnelldienst, ifo Institute - Leibniz Institute for Economic Research at the University of Munich, vol. 56(04), pages 7-23, February.
    8. Stephen K. McNees, 1988. "How accurate are macroeconomic forecasts?," New England Economic Review, Federal Reserve Bank of Boston, issue Jul, pages 15-36.
    9. David Hendry & Grayham E. Mizon, 2012. "Forecasting from Structural Econometric Models," Economics Series Working Papers 597, University of Oxford, Department of Economics.
    10. Heilemann, Ullrich & Stekler, H. O., 2003. "Has the accuracy of German macroeconomic forecasts improved?," Technical Reports 2003,31, Technische Universität Dortmund, Sonderforschungsbereich 475: Komplexitätsreduktion in multivariaten Datenstrukturen.
    11. Chatfield, Chris, 1993. "Calculating Interval Forecasts," Journal of Business & Economic Statistics, American Statistical Association, vol. 11(2), pages 121-135, April.
    12. Emile Grunberg & Franco Modigliani, 1954. "The Predictability of Social Events," Journal of Political Economy, University of Chicago Press, vol. 62, pages 465-465.
    13. Henshel, Richard L., 1995. "The Grunberg/Modigliani and Simon possibility theorem: A social psychological critique," Journal of Behavioral and Experimental Economics (formerly The Journal of Socio-Economics), Elsevier, vol. 24(3), pages 501-520.
    14. Wolfgang Nierhaus, 2008. "Price-adjusted GDP and the practice followed by the Institutes in the Joint Economic Analysis," ifo Schnelldienst, ifo Institute - Leibniz Institute for Economic Research at the University of Munich, vol. 61(09), pages 15-18, May.
    15. Kai Carstensen & Steffen Henzel & Johannes Mayr & Klaus Wohlrabe, 2009. "IFOCAST: Methods of the Ifo short-term forecast," ifo Schnelldienst, ifo Institute - Leibniz Institute for Economic Research at the University of Munich, vol. 62(23), pages 15-28, December.
    Full references (including those not matched with items on IDEAS)

    Citations

    Citations are extracted by the CitEc Project, subscribe to its RSS feed for this item.
    as


    Cited by:

    1. Wolfgang Nierhaus, 2015. "Economic Situation in 2014: Forecast and Reality," ifo Schnelldienst, ifo Institute - Leibniz Institute for Economic Research at the University of Munich, vol. 68(02), pages 43-49, January.

    Most related items

    These are the items that most often cite the same works as this one and are cited by the same works as this one.
    1. Wolfgang Nierhaus & Timo Wollmershäuser, 2016. "ifo Konjunkturumfragen und Konjunkturanalyse: Band II," ifo Forschungsberichte, ifo Institute - Leibniz Institute for Economic Research at the University of Munich, number 72.
    2. Stefan Sauer & Klaus Wohlrabe, 2020. "ifo Handbuch der Konjunkturumfragen," ifo Beiträge zur Wirtschaftsforschung, ifo Institute - Leibniz Institute for Economic Research at the University of Munich, number 88.
    3. Wolfgang Nierhaus, 2017. "Economic Activity in 2016: Forecast and Reality," ifo Schnelldienst, ifo Institute - Leibniz Institute for Economic Research at the University of Munich, vol. 70(02), pages 72-78, January.
    4. repec:lan:wpaper:470 is not listed on IDEAS
    5. Wolfgang Nierhaus, 2019. "Business Cycle 2018: Forecast and Reality," ifo Schnelldienst, ifo Institute - Leibniz Institute for Economic Research at the University of Munich, vol. 72(03), pages 22-29, February.
    6. Wolfgang Nierhaus, 2020. "Economic Business Cycle 2019: Forecast and Reality," ifo Schnelldienst, ifo Institute - Leibniz Institute for Economic Research at the University of Munich, vol. 73(01), pages 51-57, January.
    7. Wolfgang Nierhaus, 2015. "Economic Situation in 2014: Forecast and Reality," ifo Schnelldienst, ifo Institute - Leibniz Institute for Economic Research at the University of Munich, vol. 68(02), pages 43-49, January.
    8. Jamus Jerome Lim & Terence Tan, 2016. "Endogenous transactions costs and institutions in the 2007/08 financial crisis," Journal of Regulatory Economics, Springer, vol. 49(1), pages 56-85, February.
    9. Wolfgang Nierhaus, 2018. "Economic Situation 2017: Forecast and Reality," ifo Schnelldienst, ifo Institute - Leibniz Institute for Economic Research at the University of Munich, vol. 71(03), pages 35-42, February.
    10. Wolfgang Nierhaus, 2016. "Business Cycle 2015: Forecast and Reality," ifo Schnelldienst, ifo Institute - Leibniz Institute for Economic Research at the University of Munich, vol. 69(03), pages 34-40, February.
    11. repec:lan:wpaper:425 is not listed on IDEAS
    12. repec:lan:wpaper:539557 is not listed on IDEAS
    13. repec:lan:wpaper:413 is not listed on IDEAS
    14. Tölö, Eero, 2019. "Predicting systemic financial crises with recurrent neural networks," Bank of Finland Research Discussion Papers 14/2019, Bank of Finland.
    15. Dani Rodrik, 2018. "Populism and the economics of globalization," Journal of International Business Policy, Palgrave Macmillan, vol. 1(1), pages 12-33, June.
    16. Caruso, Alberto & Reichlin, Lucrezia & Ricco, Giovanni, 2019. "Financial and fiscal interaction in the Euro Area crisis: This time was different," European Economic Review, Elsevier, vol. 119(C), pages 333-355.
    17. Daisuke Ikeda & Toan Phan & Timothy Sablik, 2020. "Asset Bubbles and Global Imbalances," Richmond Fed Economic Brief, Federal Reserve Bank of Richmond, vol. 20, pages 1-4, January.
    18. Karen K. Lewis, 2011. "Global Asset Pricing," Annual Review of Financial Economics, Annual Reviews, vol. 3(1), pages 435-466, December.
    19. Carmen M. Reinhart & Kenneth S. Rogoff, 2014. "Recovery from Financial Crises: Evidence from 100 Episodes," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 104(5), pages 50-55, May.
    20. Claudio Borio, 2013. "On Time, Stocks and Flows: Understanding the Global Macroeconomic Challenges," National Institute Economic Review, National Institute of Economic and Social Research, vol. 225(1), pages 3-13, August.
    21. Ibrahim Ari & Muammer Koc, 2018. "Sustainable Financing for Sustainable Development: Understanding the Interrelations between Public Investment and Sovereign Debt," Sustainability, MDPI, vol. 10(11), pages 1-25, October.
    22. Steven J. Davis & John C. Haltiwanger & Kyle Handley & Ben Lipsius & Josh Lerner & Javier Miranda, 2021. "The economic effects of private equity buyouts," Jena Economics Research Papers 2021-013, Friedrich-Schiller-University Jena.
    23. Lamperti, Francesco & Bosetti, Valentina & Roventini, Andrea & Tavoni, Massimo & Treibich, Tania, 2021. "Three green financial policies to address climate risks," Journal of Financial Stability, Elsevier, vol. 54(C).
    24. Manuel Funke & Moritz Schularick & Christoph Trebesch, 2023. "Populist Leaders and the Economy," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 113(12), pages 3249-3288, December.

    More about this item

    JEL classification:

    • C22 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Single Equation Models; Single Variables - - - Time-Series Models; Dynamic Quantile Regressions; Dynamic Treatment Effect Models; Diffusion Processes
    • C53 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Econometric Modeling - - - Forecasting and Prediction Models; Simulation Methods
    • E32 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Prices, Business Fluctuations, and Cycles - - - Business Fluctuations; Cycles

    Statistics

    Access and download statistics

    Corrections

    All material on this site has been provided by the respective publishers and authors. You can help correct errors and omissions. When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:ces:ifosdt:v:66:y:2013:i:01:p:25-32. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.

    If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.

    If CitEc recognized a bibliographic reference but did not link an item in RePEc to it, you can help with this form .

    If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your RePEc Author Service profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.

    For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: Klaus Wohlrabe (email available below). General contact details of provider: https://edirc.repec.org/data/ifooode.html .

    Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.

    IDEAS is a RePEc service. RePEc uses bibliographic data supplied by the respective publishers.