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Konjunkturprognosen heute – Möglichkeiten und Probleme

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  • Wolfgang Nierhaus

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Abstract

Mit Konjunkturprognosen wird auf hochaggregierter Ebene die Entwicklung der Wirtschaft im laufenden und im folgenden Jahr vorausgeschätzt. Im Mittelpunkt stehen Aussagen über Tempoänderungen und Wendepunkte von makroökonomischen Variablen im zyklischen Wirtschaftsgeschehen. Konjunkturprognosen sind bedingte Wahrscheinlichkeitsaussagen. Weil sich die Bedingungen immer wieder ändern, ist es nötig, die Prognosen anzupassen. Auch wenn mit Prognosen die Unsicherheit über die Zukunft nicht beseitigt werden kann, so erleichtern sie die Planung der Unternehmen und helfen der Wirtschafts- und Finanzpolitik, sich auf die zukünftige Entwicklung besser einzustellen.

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Bibliographic Info

Article provided by Ifo Institute for Economic Research at the University of Munich in its journal ifo Schnelldienst.

Volume (Year): 66 (2013)
Issue (Month): 01 (01)
Pages: 25-32

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Handle: RePEc:ces:ifosdt:v:66:y:2013:i:01:p:25-32

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Keywords: Prognose; Konjunkturprognose; Sozialprodukt; Volkswirtschaftliche Gesamtrechnung;

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  1. Chatfield, Chris, 1993. "Calculating Interval Forecasts: Reply," Journal of Business & Economic Statistics, American Statistical Association, American Statistical Association, vol. 11(2), pages 143-44, April.
  2. David Hendry & Grayham E. Mizon, 2012. "Forecasting from Structural Econometric Models," Economics Series Working Papers, University of Oxford, Department of Economics 597, University of Oxford, Department of Economics.
  3. Chatfield, Chris, 1993. "Calculating Interval Forecasts," Journal of Business & Economic Statistics, American Statistical Association, American Statistical Association, vol. 11(2), pages 121-35, April.
  4. Carmen M. Reinhart & Kenneth S. Rogoff, 2009. "This Time Is Different: Eight Centuries of Financial Folly," Economics Books, Princeton University Press, Princeton University Press, edition 1, volume 1, number 8973.
  5. Henshel, Richard L., 1995. "The Grunberg/Modigliani and Simon possibility theorem: A social psychological critique," Journal of Behavioral and Experimental Economics (formerly The Journal of Socio-Economics), Elsevier, Elsevier, vol. 24(3), pages 501-520.
  6. Wolfgang Nierhaus, 2008. "Preisbereinigtes Bruttoinlandsprodukt: Zur Veröffentlichungspraxis im Gemeinschaftsgutachten," Ifo Schnelldienst, Ifo Institute for Economic Research at the University of Munich, Ifo Institute for Economic Research at the University of Munich, vol. 61(09), pages 15-18, 05.
  7. Klaus Abberger & Wolfgang Nierhaus, 2007. "Das ifo Geschäftsklima und Wendepunkte der deutschen Konjunktur," Ifo Schnelldienst, Ifo Institute for Economic Research at the University of Munich, Ifo Institute for Economic Research at the University of Munich, vol. 60(03), pages 26-31, 02.
  8. Stephen K. McNees, 1988. "How accurate are macroeconomic forecasts?," New England Economic Review, Federal Reserve Bank of Boston, Federal Reserve Bank of Boston, issue Jul, pages 15-36.
  9. Wolfgang Nierhaus & Jan-Egbert Sturm, 2003. "Methoden der Konjunkturprognose," Ifo Schnelldienst, Ifo Institute for Economic Research at the University of Munich, Ifo Institute for Economic Research at the University of Munich, vol. 56(04), pages 7-23, 02.
  10. Kai Carstensen & Steffen Henzel & Johannes Mayr & Klaus Wohlrabe, 2009. "IFOCAST: Methoden der ifo-Kurzfristprognose," Ifo Schnelldienst, Ifo Institute for Economic Research at the University of Munich, Ifo Institute for Economic Research at the University of Munich, vol. 62(23), pages 15-28, December.
  11. Emile Grunberg & Franco Modigliani, 1954. "The Predictability of Social Events," Journal of Political Economy, University of Chicago Press, University of Chicago Press, vol. 62, pages 465.
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