Reported earnings and analyst forecasts as competing sources of information: A new approach
AbstractWe apply a new methodology, modified Granger causality tests, to further analyze the information flows between earnings and forecasts. Our application focuses on the dynamic interaction between reported earnings and analystsâ€™ forecasts. Based on long time series of analyst earnings forecasts and reported earnings, we provide formal and compelling evidence of bi-directional â€˜causalityâ€™. Further, we report that the lag structure in information flows is longer than has been documented in the previous literature. This is consistent with our expectation that, in addition to past earnings reports, the forecasts themselves make a significant contribution to the information that is reflected in future earnings. However, the presence of feedback also suggests that past earnings reports, as well as past forecasts, are incorporated into later forecasts. Collectively, our findings imply that the information in earnings reports has inherent positive value and that forecasts do not fully substitute for earnings releases.
Download InfoIf you experience problems downloading a file, check if you have the proper application to view it first. In case of further problems read the IDEAS help page. Note that these files are not on the IDEAS site. Please be patient as the files may be large.
Bibliographic InfoArticle provided by Australian School of Business in its journal Australian Journal of Management.
Volume (Year): 37 (2012)
Issue (Month): 3 (December)
Contact details of provider:
Web page: http://www.agsm.edu.au
Analyst forecasts; Granger causality; information flows; reported earnings;
Other versions of this item:
- H.M. Anderson & H. Chan & R. Faff & Y.K. Ho, 2007. "Reported Earnings and Analyst Forecasts as Competing Sources of Information: A New Approach," ANU Working Papers in Economics and Econometrics 2007-488, Australian National University, College of Business and Economics, School of Economics.
- G14 - Financial Economics - - General Financial Markets - - - Information and Market Efficiency; Event Studies
- M41 - Business Administration and Business Economics; Marketing; Accounting - - Accounting - - - Accounting
- C32 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Multiple or Simultaneous Equation Models; Multiple Variables - - - Time-Series Models; Dynamic Quantile Regressions; Dynamic Treatment Effect Models
Please report citation or reference errors to , or , if you are the registered author of the cited work, log in to your RePEc Author Service profile, click on "citations" and make appropriate adjustments.:
- John Y. Campbell & Robert J. Shiller, 1989.
"Interpreting Cointegrated Models,"
NBER Working Papers
2568, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
- Toda, Hiro Y. & Yamamoto, Taku, 1995. "Statistical inference in vector autoregressions with possibly integrated processes," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 66(1-2), pages 225-250.
- Asquith, Paul & Mikhail, Michael B. & Au, Andrea S., 2005. "Information content of equity analyst reports," Journal of Financial Economics, Elsevier, vol. 75(2), pages 245-282, February.
- Lennox, Clive S. & Park, Chul W., 2006. "The informativeness of earnings and management's issuance of earnings forecasts," Journal of Accounting and Economics, Elsevier, vol. 42(3), pages 439-458, December.
- Ball, Ray & Bartov, Eli, 1996. "How naive is the stock market's use of earnings information?," Journal of Accounting and Economics, Elsevier, vol. 21(3), pages 319-337, June.
- Foster, George, 1981. "Intra-industry information transfers associated with earnings releases," Journal of Accounting and Economics, Elsevier, vol. 3(3), pages 201-232, December.
- Marco Aiolfi & Carlos Capistrán & Allan Timmermann, 2010.
2010-04, Banco de México.
- Collins, Daniel W. & Kothari, S. P., 1989. "An analysis of intertemporal and cross-sectional determinants of earnings response coefficients," Journal of Accounting and Economics, Elsevier, vol. 11(2-3), pages 143-181, July.
- Bartov, Eli & Givoly, Dan & Hayn, Carla, 2002. "The rewards to meeting or beating earnings expectations," Journal of Accounting and Economics, Elsevier, vol. 33(2), pages 173-204, June.
- Brennan, Michael J & Jegadeesh, Narasimhan & Swaminathan, Bhaskaran, 1993. "Investment Analysis and the Adjustment of Stock Prices to Common Information," Review of Financial Studies, Society for Financial Studies, vol. 6(4), pages 799-824.
- Collins, Daniel W. & Maydew, Edward L. & Weiss, Ira S., 1997. "Changes in the value-relevance of earnings and book values over the past forty years," Journal of Accounting and Economics, Elsevier, vol. 24(1), pages 39-67, December.
- Jones, Jefferson P & Morton, Richard M & Schaefer, Thomas F, 2000. " Valuation Implications of Investment Opportunities and Earnings Permanence," Review of Quantitative Finance and Accounting, Springer, vol. 15(1), pages 21-35, July.
- Granger, C W J, 1969. "Investigating Causal Relations by Econometric Models and Cross-Spectral Methods," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 37(3), pages 424-38, July.
- Beaver, William & Lambert, Richard & Morse, Dale, 1980. "The information content of security prices," Journal of Accounting and Economics, Elsevier, vol. 2(1), pages 3-28, March.
- Frankel, Richard & Kothari, S.P. & Weber, Joseph, 2006. "Determinants of the informativeness of analyst research," Journal of Accounting and Economics, Elsevier, vol. 41(1-2), pages 29-54, April.
For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: (SAGE Publications).
If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.
If references are entirely missing, you can add them using this form.
If the full references list an item that is present in RePEc, but the system did not link to it, you can help with this form.
If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.
Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.