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Forecasting bulk prices of Bordeaux wines using leading indicators

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  • Emmanuel Paroissien

    (SMART-LERECO - Structures et Marché Agricoles, Ressources et Territoires - INRAE - Institut National de Recherche pour l’Agriculture, l’Alimentation et l’Environnement - INSTITUT AGRO Agrocampus Ouest - Institut Agro - Institut national d'enseignement supérieur pour l'agriculture, l'alimentation et l'environnement, CREST-LEI - ENPC - École des Ponts ParisTech, Larefi - Laboratoire d'analyse et de recherche en économie et finance internationales - UB - Université de Bordeaux)

Abstract

Agricultural price forecasting has been being abandoned progressively by researchers ever since the development of large-scale agricultural futures markets. However, as with many other agricultural goods, there is no futures market for wine. This paper draws on the agricultural prices forecasting literature to develop a forecasting model for bulk wine prices. The price data include annual and monthly series for various wine types that are produced in the Bordeaux region. The predictors include several leading economic indicators of supply and demand shifts. The stock levels and quantities produced are found to have the highest predictive power. The preferred annual and monthly forecasting models outperform naive random walk forecasts by 27.1% and 3.4% respectively; their mean absolute percentage errors are 2.7% and 3.4% respectively. A simple trading strategy based on monthly forecasts is estimated to increase profits by 3.3% relative to a blind strategy that consists of always selling at the spot price.

Suggested Citation

  • Emmanuel Paroissien, 2020. "Forecasting bulk prices of Bordeaux wines using leading indicators," Post-Print hal-02408202, HAL.
    • Handle: RePEc:hal:journl:hal-02408202
    DOI: 10.1016/j.ijforecast.2019.04.021
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    Cited by:

    1. Algieri, Bernardina & Iania, Leonardo & Leccadito, Arturo & Meloni, Giulia, 2023. "Message in a Bottle: Forecasting wine prices," LIDAM Discussion Papers LFIN 2023004, Université catholique de Louvain, Louvain Finance (LFIN).
    2. Philippe Masset & Jean‐Philippe Weisskopf, 2022. "At what price should Bordeaux wines be released?," Economic Inquiry, Western Economic Association International, vol. 60(1), pages 392-412, January.

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