IDEAS home Printed from https://ideas.repec.org/p/ris/kngedp/2018_002.html
   My bibliography  Save this paper

Is the consumption-income ratio stationary in African countries? Evidence from new time series tests that allow for structural breaks

Author

Listed:
  • Solarin, Sakiru Adebola

    (Faculty of Business Multimedia University Malaka)

  • Shahbaz, Muhammad

    (Montpellier Business School)

  • Stewart, Chris

    (Kingston University London)

Abstract

This paper examines whether the consumption-income ratio is stationary in 50 African countries. We use the residual augmented least squares (RALS-LM) unit root test that allows for structural breaks developed by Meng et al. (2014). The empirical evidence shows that the consumption-income ratio is stationary around structural breaks in most (44 out of 50) African countries. This is consistent with the predictions of most economic theory. The general finding of mean reversion implies that (policy) shocks are likely to have only temporary effects on the consumption-income ratio in most African countries.

Suggested Citation

  • Solarin, Sakiru Adebola & Shahbaz, Muhammad & Stewart, Chris, 2018. "Is the consumption-income ratio stationary in African countries? Evidence from new time series tests that allow for structural breaks," Economics Discussion Papers 2018-2, School of Economics, Kingston University London.
    • Handle: RePEc:ris:kngedp:2018_002
    as

    Download full text from publisher

    File URL: http://staffnet.kingston.ac.uk/~ku33681/RePEc/kin/papers/2018_002.pdf
    File Function: Full text
    Download Restriction: no
    ---><---

    Other versions of this item:

    References listed on IDEAS

    as
    1. Caballero, Ricardo J., 1990. "Consumption puzzles and precautionary savings," Journal of Monetary Economics, Elsevier, vol. 25(1), pages 113-136, January.
    2. Hall, Robert E, 1978. "Stochastic Implications of the Life Cycle-Permanent Income Hypothesis: Theory and Evidence," Journal of Political Economy, University of Chicago Press, vol. 86(6), pages 971-987, December.
    3. Wagner, Martin, 2008. "The carbon Kuznets curve: A cloudy picture emitted by bad econometrics?," Resource and Energy Economics, Elsevier, vol. 30(3), pages 388-408, August.
    4. Sakiru Solarin & Emmanuel Anoruo, 2015. "Nonlinearity and the Unit Root Hypothesis for African Per Capita Real GDP," International Economic Journal, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 29(4), pages 617-630, December.
    5. Elmi, Zahra (Mila) & Ranjbar, Omid, 2013. "Nonlinear adjustment to the mean reversion of consumption–income ratio," Economic Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 35(C), pages 477-480.
    6. Dong Wan Shin & Beong Soo So, 2001. "recursive Mean Adjustment for Unit Root Tests," Journal of Time Series Analysis, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 22(5), pages 595-612, September.
    7. William Easterly & Ross Levine, 1997. "Africa's Growth Tragedy: Policies and Ethnic Divisions," The Quarterly Journal of Economics, Oxford University Press, vol. 112(4), pages 1203-1250.
    8. Milton Friedman, 1957. "Introduction to "A Theory of the Consumption Function"," NBER Chapters, in: A Theory of the Consumption Function, pages 1-6, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    9. Junsoo Lee & Mark C. Strazicich, 2013. "Minimum LM unit root test with one structural break," Economics Bulletin, AccessEcon, vol. 33(4), pages 2483-2492.
    10. Modigliani, Franco, 1986. "Life Cycle, Individual Thrift, and the Wealth of Nations," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 76(3), pages 297-313, June.
    11. Mario Cerrato & Christian De Peretti & Chris Stewart, 2013. "Is The Consumption–Income Ratio Stationary? Evidence From Linear And Non-Linear Panel Unit Root Tests For Oecd And Non-Oecd Countries," Manchester School, University of Manchester, vol. 81(1), pages 102-120, January.
    12. Amsler, Christine & Lee, Junsoo, 1995. "An LM Test for a Unit Root in the Presence of a Structural Change," Econometric Theory, Cambridge University Press, vol. 11(2), pages 359-368, February.
    13. Steven Cook, 2003. "The nonstationarity of the consumption-income ratio: Evidence from more powerful Dickey-Fuller tests," Applied Economics Letters, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 10(7), pages 393-395.
    14. World Bank, 2016. "World Development Indicators 2016," World Bank Publications - Books, The World Bank Group, number 23969, December.
    15. Junsoo Lee & Mark C. Strazicich, 2003. "Minimum Lagrange Multiplier Unit Root Test with Two Structural Breaks," The Review of Economics and Statistics, MIT Press, vol. 85(4), pages 1082-1089, November.
    16. Junsoo Lee & Mark C. Strazicich & Ming Meng, 2012. "Two-Step LM Unit Root Tests with Trend-Breaks," Journal of Statistical and Econometric Methods, SCIENPRESS Ltd, vol. 1(2), pages 1-8.
    17. Diego Romero-Avila, 2008. "A confirmatory analysis of the unit root hypothesis for OECD consumption-income ratios," Applied Economics, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 40(17), pages 2271-2278.
    18. World Bank, 2007. "World Development Indicators 2007," World Bank Publications - Books, The World Bank Group, number 8150, December.
    19. Teboho Jeremiah Mosikari & Joel Hinaunye Eita, 2017. "Empirical test of the Ricardian Equivalence in the Kingdom of Lesotho," Cogent Economics & Finance, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 5(1), pages 1351674-135, January.
    20. Shu-Yi Liao & Mao-Lung Huang & Lan-Hsun Wang, 2011. "Mean-reverting behavior of consumption-income ratio in OECD countries: evidence from SURADF panel unit root tests," Economics Bulletin, AccessEcon, vol. 31(1), pages 679-686.
    21. Dimitris Christopoulos & Eftymios Tsionas, 2002. "Non-Sationarity in the Consumption-Income Ratio: Further Evidence from Panel and Assymetric Unit Root Tests," Economics Bulletin, AccessEcon, vol. 3(12), pages 1-5.
    22. Fallahi, Firouz, 2012. "The stationarity of consumption–income ratios: Evidence from bootstrapping confidence intervals," Economics Letters, Elsevier, vol. 115(1), pages 137-140.
    23. repec:ebl:ecbull:v:3:y:2002:i:12:p:1-5 is not listed on IDEAS
    24. Milton Friedman, 1957. "A Theory of the Consumption Function," NBER Books, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc, number frie57-1, May.
    25. Meng, Ming & Payne, James E. & Lee, Junsoo, 2013. "Convergence in per capita energy use among OECD countries," Energy Economics, Elsevier, vol. 36(C), pages 536-545.
    26. Ralf Becker & Walter Enders & Junsoo Lee, 2006. "A Stationarity Test in the Presence of an Unknown Number of Smooth Breaks," Journal of Time Series Analysis, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 27(3), pages 381-409, May.
    27. Caballero, Ricardo J, 1991. "Earnings Uncertainty and Aggregate Wealth Accumulation," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 81(4), pages 859-871, September.
    28. Romero-Ávila, Diego, 2009. "Are OECD consumption-income ratios stationary after all?," Economic Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 26(1), pages 107-117, January.
    29. Sadiye Baykara & Erdinç Telatar, 2012. "The Stationarity Of Consumption-Income Ratios With Nonlinear And Asymmetric Unit Root Tests: Evidence From Fourteen Transition Economies," Hacettepe University Department of Economics Working Papers 20129, Hacettepe University, Department of Economics.
    30. Sakiru Adebola SOLARIN, 2017. "The Stationarity of Consumption-Income Ratios: Nonlinear Evidence in ASEAN Countries," Journal for Economic Forecasting, Institute for Economic Forecasting, vol. 0(2), pages 109-123, June.
    31. Cook, Steven, 2005. "The stationarity of consumption-income ratios: Evidence from minimum LM unit root testing," Economics Letters, Elsevier, vol. 89(1), pages 55-60, October.
    32. Davidson, James E H, et al, 1978. "Econometric Modelling of the Aggregate Time-Series Relationship between Consumers' Expenditure and Income in the United Kingdom," Economic Journal, Royal Economic Society, vol. 88(352), pages 661-692, December.
    33. Sarantis, Nicholas & Stewart, Chris, 1999. "Is the consumption-income ratio stationary? Evidence from panel unit root tests," Economics Letters, Elsevier, vol. 64(3), pages 309-314, September.
    34. Kyung‐So Im & Junsoo Lee & Margie Tieslau, 2005. "Panel LM Unit‐root Tests with Level Shifts," Oxford Bulletin of Economics and Statistics, Department of Economics, University of Oxford, vol. 67(3), pages 393-419, June.
    35. Abeysinghe, Tilak & Choy, Keen Meng, 2004. "The aggregate consumption puzzle in Singapore," Journal of Asian Economics, Elsevier, vol. 15(3), pages 563-578, June.
    Full references (including those not matched with items on IDEAS)

    Citations

    Citations are extracted by the CitEc Project, subscribe to its RSS feed for this item.
    as


    Cited by:

    1. Mirza, Nawazish & Rahat, Birjees & Naqvi, Bushra & Rizvi, Syed Kumail Abbas, 2023. "Impact of Covid-19 on corporate solvency and possible policy responses in the EU," The Quarterly Review of Economics and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 87(C), pages 181-190.
    2. Saadet Kasman & Adnan Kasman, 2021. "Convergence in obesity and overweight rates across OECD countries: evidence from the stochastic and club convergence tests," Empirical Economics, Springer, vol. 61(2), pages 1063-1096, August.

    Most related items

    These are the items that most often cite the same works as this one and are cited by the same works as this one.
    1. Sakiru Adebola SOLARIN, 2017. "The Stationarity of Consumption-Income Ratios: Nonlinear Evidence in ASEAN Countries," Journal for Economic Forecasting, Institute for Economic Forecasting, vol. 0(2), pages 109-123, June.
    2. Shu‐Yi Liao & Lan‐Hsun Wang & Mao‐Lung Huang, 2019. "Does More Consumption Promote Real GDP Growth?," Scottish Journal of Political Economy, Scottish Economic Society, vol. 66(3), pages 384-403, July.
    3. Elmi, Zahra (Mila) & Ranjbar, Omid, 2013. "Nonlinear adjustment to the mean reversion of consumption–income ratio," Economic Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 35(C), pages 477-480.
    4. Mario Cerrato & Christian De Peretti & Chris Stewart, 2013. "Is The Consumption–Income Ratio Stationary? Evidence From Linear And Non-Linear Panel Unit Root Tests For Oecd And Non-Oecd Countries," Manchester School, University of Manchester, vol. 81(1), pages 102-120, January.
    5. Tuomas, Malinen, 2011. "Inequality and savings: a reassesment of the relationship in cointegrated panels," MPRA Paper 33350, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    6. Mario Cerrato & Christian de Peretti & Chris Stewart, 2008. "Is the consumption-income ratio stationary? Evidence from a nonlinear panel unit root test for OECD and non-OECD countries," Working Papers 2008_27, Business School - Economics, University of Glasgow.
    7. Orazio P. Attanasio, 1998. "Consumption Demand," NBER Working Papers 6466, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    8. Emilio Fernandez-Corugedo, 2004. "Consumption Theory," Handbooks, Centre for Central Banking Studies, Bank of England, number 23, April.
    9. Yulei Luo & William T. Smith & Heng-fu Zou, 2009. "The Spirit of Capitalism and Excess Smoothness," Annals of Economics and Finance, Society for AEF, vol. 10(2), pages 281-301, November.
    10. Gomes, Fábio A. R. & Franchini, Douglas de S., 2008. "The Stationarity of Consumption–Income Ratios: Evidence from South American Countries," Insper Working Papers wpe_123, Insper Working Paper, Insper Instituto de Ensino e Pesquisa.
    11. Saten Kumar, 2016. "Is the US Consumer Credit Asymmetric?," Scottish Journal of Political Economy, Scottish Economic Society, vol. 63(2), pages 194-215, May.
    12. Sadiye Baykara & Erdinç Telatar, 2012. "The Stationarity Of Consumption-Income Ratios With Nonlinear And Asymmetric Unit Root Tests: Evidence From Fourteen Transition Economies," Hacettepe University Department of Economics Working Papers 20129, Hacettepe University, Department of Economics.
    13. Luo, Yulei & Nie, Jun & Wang, Gaowang & Young, Eric, 2014. "What We Don't Know Doesn't Hurt Us: Rational Inattention and the Permanent Income Hypothesis in General Equilibrium," MPRA Paper 59182, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    14. Pemberton, James, 1997. "Modelling and measuring income uncertainty in life cycle models," Economic Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 14(1), pages 81-98, January.
    15. Le, Thai-Ha & Chang, Youngho & Park, Donghyun, 2017. "Energy demand convergence in APEC: An empirical analysis," Energy Economics, Elsevier, vol. 65(C), pages 32-41.
    16. Wang, Haijun, 2016. "Precautionary saving demand and consumption dynamics with the spirit of capitalism and regime switching," Journal of Mathematical Economics, Elsevier, vol. 64(C), pages 48-65.
    17. Tuomas Malinen, 2011. "Income Inequality and Savings: A Reassessment of the Relationship in Cointegrated Panels," DEGIT Conference Papers c016_076, DEGIT, Dynamics, Economic Growth, and International Trade.
    18. Wang, Neng, 2009. "Optimal consumption and asset allocation with unknown income growth," Journal of Monetary Economics, Elsevier, vol. 56(4), pages 524-534, May.
    19. Wang, Chong & Wang, Neng & Yang, Jinqiang, 2016. "Optimal consumption and savings with stochastic income and recursive utility," Journal of Economic Theory, Elsevier, vol. 165(C), pages 292-331.
    20. Wang, Neng, 2004. "Precautionary saving and partially observed income," Journal of Monetary Economics, Elsevier, vol. 51(8), pages 1645-1681, November.

    More about this item

    Keywords

    consumption-income ratio; African countries; unit root tests; structural breaks;
    All these keywords.

    JEL classification:

    • C22 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Single Equation Models; Single Variables - - - Time-Series Models; Dynamic Quantile Regressions; Dynamic Treatment Effect Models; Diffusion Processes
    • E12 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - General Aggregative Models - - - Keynes; Keynesian; Post-Keynesian; Modern Monetary Theory
    • E21 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Consumption, Saving, Production, Employment, and Investment - - - Consumption; Saving; Wealth

    NEP fields

    This paper has been announced in the following NEP Reports:

    Statistics

    Access and download statistics

    Corrections

    All material on this site has been provided by the respective publishers and authors. You can help correct errors and omissions. When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:ris:kngedp:2018_002. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.

    If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.

    If CitEc recognized a bibliographic reference but did not link an item in RePEc to it, you can help with this form .

    If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your RePEc Author Service profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.

    For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: Andrea Ingianni (email available below). General contact details of provider: https://edirc.repec.org/data/sekinuk.html .

    Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.

    IDEAS is a RePEc service. RePEc uses bibliographic data supplied by the respective publishers.