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Is money informative? Evidence form a large model used for policy analysis

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Author Info
Filippo Altissimo
Eugenio Gaiotti () (Bank of Italy, Economic Research Department)
Alberto Locarno

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Abstract

In this paper we assess whether monetary variables, which are observed with little delay, conveyed marginal information on the state of the Italian economy in the 1990s, taking as a benchmark the forecasting errors generated by the quarterly model used by the Bank of Italy. We follow two approaches. First we map monetary surprises into estimates of the structural disturbances using a Kalman filter approach, in order to improve the forecasts. Then we look at the sample correlations among forecasting errors in monetary and real variables, thereby taking into account links that may not be accounted for by the modelÂ’s structure. We find that bank interest rates have a strong information content. Monetary aggregates play no role according to the first approach; according to the second approach they do, but the economic interpretation of this finding is not straightforward. All in all, the results highlight the role of financial prices and quantities as indicators of the state of the economy. However, they do not imply a mechanical policy reaction to this information, as both the strength and the sign of the relationship between the surprises in monetary and real variables depend on the source of the shocks.

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Paper provided by Bank of Italy, Economic Research Department in its series Temi di discussione (Economic working papers) with number 445.

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Date of creation: Jul 2002
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Handle: RePEc:bdi:wptemi:td_445_02

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Related research
Keywords: monetary aggregates; information variables; Kalman filtering; forecasting;

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Find related papers by JEL classification:
C53 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Econometric Modeling - - - Forecasting and Other Model Applications
E52 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Monetary Policy, Central Banking, and the Supply of Money and Credit - - - Monetary Policy
E58 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Monetary Policy, Central Banking, and the Supply of Money and Credit - - - Central Banks and Their Policies
E65 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Macroeconomic Policy, Macroeconomic Aspects of Public Finance, and General Outlook - - - Studies of Particular Policy Episodes

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Please report citation or reference errors to , or , if you are the registered author of the cited work, log in to your RePEc Author Service profile, click on "citations" and make appropriate adjustments.:

  1. Richard Clarida & Jordi Gali & Mark Gertler, 1999. "The Science of Monetary Policy: A New Keynesian Perspective," Journal of Economic Literature, American Economic Association, vol. 37(4), pages 1661-1707, December. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
    Other versions:
  2. Lars E.O. Svensson & Michael Woodford, 2000. "Indicator Variables for Optimal Policy," NBER Working Papers 7953, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
    Other versions:
  3. Eugenio Gaiotti & Andrea Generale, 2001. "Does monetary policy have asymmetric effects? A look at the investment decisions of Italian firms," Temi di discussione (Economic working papers) 429, Bank of Italy, Economic Research Department. [Downloadable!]
    Other versions:
  4. Angelini, P. & Hendry, D.F. & Rinaldi, R., 1993. "An Econometric Analysis of Money Demand in Italy," Papers 219, Banca Italia - Servizio di Studi.
  5. Benjamin M. Friedman, 1984. "The value of intermediate targets in implementing monetary policy," Proceedings, Federal Reserve Bank of Kansas City, pages 169-199.
  6. Stefano Neri, 2001. "Assessing the effects of monetary and fiscal policy," Temi di discussione (Economic working papers) 425, Bank of Italy, Economic Research Department. [Downloadable!]
  7. Siviero, S. & Terlizzese, D. & Visco, I., 1999. "Are Model-Based Inflation Forecasts Used in Monetary Policymaking? A Case Study," Papers 357, Banca Italia - Servizio di Studi.
    Other versions:
  8. Kalchbrenner, J H & Tinsley, Peter A, 1976. "On the Use of Feedback Control in the Design of Aggregate Monetary Policy," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 66(2), pages 349-55, May. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
  9. Friedman, Benjamin M., 1990. "Targets and instruments of monetary policy," Handbook of Monetary Economics, in: B. M. Friedman & F. H. Hahn (ed.), Handbook of Monetary Economics, edition 1, volume 2, chapter 22, pages 1185-1230 Elsevier. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
  10. Sandro Trento & Massimo Warglien, 2001. "Nuove tecnologie e cambiamenti organizzativi: alcune implicazioni per le imprese italiane," Temi di discussione (Economic working papers) 428, Bank of Italy, Economic Research Department. [Downloadable!]
  11. Carmine Trecroci & Juan Luis Vega-Croissier, 2000. "The information content of M3 for future inflation," Working Paper Series 33, European Central Bank. [Downloadable!]
  12. Sergio Nicoletti Altimari, 2001. "Does money lead inflation in the euro area?," Working Paper Series 063, European Central Bank. [Downloadable!]
  13. Laurence H. Meyer, 2001. "Does money matter?," Review, Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis, issue May, pages 1-16. [Downloadable!]
  14. Michael Dotsey & Christopher Otrok, 1994. "M2 and monetary policy: a critical review of the recent debate," Economic Quarterly, Federal Reserve Bank of Richmond, issue Win, pages 41-49. [Downloadable!]
  15. Giorgio Rodano & Enrico Saltari, 2001. "Consumption and fiscal policies: medium-run non-Keynesian effects," Temi di discussione (Economic working papers) 426, Bank of Italy, Economic Research Department. [Downloadable!]
  16. Michael Dotsey & Carl D. Lantz & Lawrence Santucci, 2000. "Is money useful in the conduct of monetary policy?," Economic Quarterly, Federal Reserve Bank of Richmond, issue Fall, pages 23-48. [Downloadable!]
  17. Gunter Coenen & Andrew Levin & Volker Wieland, 2001. "Data uncertainty and the role of money as an information variable for monetary policy," Finance and Economics Discussion Series 2001-54, Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System (U.S.). [Downloadable!]
    Other versions:
  18. Gaiotti, E. & Nicoletti-Altimari, S., 1996. "Monetary Policy Transmission, the Exchange Rate and Long-Term Yields under Different Hypothesis on Expectations," Papers 276, Banca Italia - Servizio di Studi.
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Cited by:
(explanations, Please report citation or reference errors to , or , if you are the registered author of the cited work, log in to your RePEc Author Service profile, click on "citations" and make appropriate adjustments.)

  1. Paolo Angelini & Paolo Del Giovane & Stefano Siviero & Daniele Terlizzese, 2002. "Monetary Policy Rules for the Euro Area: What Role for National Information?," Temi di discussione (Economic working papers) 457, Bank of Italy, Economic Research Department. [Downloadable!]
  2. Dean Amel & Colleen Barnes & Fabio Panetta & Carmelo Salleo, 2002. "Consolidation and efficiency in the financial sector: a review of the international evidence," Temi di discussione (Economic working papers) 464, Bank of Italy, Economic Research Department. [Downloadable!]
  3. Claus Brand & Hans-Eggert Reimers & Franz Seitz, 2003. "Narrow Money and the Business Cycle: Theoretical aspects and euro area evdence," Macroeconomics 0303012, EconWPA. [Downloadable!]
  4. Paolo Angelini, 2002. "Liquidity and Announcement Effects in the Euro Area," Temi di discussione (Economic working papers) 451, Bank of Italy, Economic Research Department. [Downloadable!]
    Other versions:
  5. Giovanni D'Alessio & Ivan Faiella, 2002. "Non-response behaviour in the Bank of ItalyÂ’s Survey of Household Income and Wealth," Temi di discussione (Economic working papers) 462, Bank of Italy, Economic Research Department. [Downloadable!]
  6. Filippo Altissimo & Alberto Locarno & Stefano Siviero, 2002. "Dealing with forward-looking expectations and policy rules in quantifying the channels of transmission of monetary policy," Temi di discussione (Economic working papers) 460, Bank of Italy, Economic Research Department. [Downloadable!]
  7. Libero Monteforte & Stefano Siviero, 2002. "The economic consequences of euro area modelling shortcuts," Temi di discussione (Economic working papers) 458, Bank of Italy, Economic Research Department. [Downloadable!]
  8. Silvia Magri, 2002. "Italian households' debt: determinants of demand and supply," Temi di discussione (Economic working papers) 454, Bank of Italy, Economic Research Department. [Downloadable!]
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