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Is money informative? Evidence form a large model used for policy analysis

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  • Filippo Altissimo
  • Eugenio Gaiotti

    ()
    (Bank of Italy, Economic Research Department)

  • Alberto Locarno

Abstract

In this paper we assess whether monetary variables, which are observed with little delay, conveyed marginal information on the state of the Italian economy in the 1990s, taking as a benchmark the forecasting errors generated by the quarterly model used by the Bank of Italy. We follow two approaches. First we map monetary surprises into estimates of the structural disturbances using a Kalman filter approach, in order to improve the forecasts. Then we look at the sample correlations among forecasting errors in monetary and real variables, thereby taking into account links that may not be accounted for by the modelÂ’s structure. We find that bank interest rates have a strong information content. Monetary aggregates play no role according to the first approach; according to the second approach they do, but the economic interpretation of this finding is not straightforward. All in all, the results highlight the role of financial prices and quantities as indicators of the state of the economy. However, they do not imply a mechanical policy reaction to this information, as both the strength and the sign of the relationship between the surprises in monetary and real variables depend on the source of the shocks.

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Bibliographic Info

Paper provided by Bank of Italy, Economic Research and International Relations Area in its series Temi di discussione (Economic working papers) with number 445.

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Date of creation: Jul 2002
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Handle: RePEc:bdi:wptemi:td_445_02

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Keywords: monetary aggregates; information variables; Kalman filtering; forecasting;

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  1. Coenen, Günter & Levin, Andrew T. & Wieland, Volker, 2001. "Data uncertainty and the role of money as an information variable for monetary policy," Working Paper Series 0084, European Central Bank.
  2. Siviero, S. & Terlizzese, D. & Visco, I., 1999. "Are Model-Based Inflation Forecasts Used in Monetary Policymaking? A Case Study," Papers 357, Banca Italia - Servizio di Studi.
  3. Angelini, P. & Hendry, D.F. & Rinaldi, R., 1993. "An Econometric Analysis of Money Demand in Italy," Papers 219, Banca Italia - Servizio di Studi.
  4. Lars E.O. Svensson & Michael Woodford, 2000. "Indicator variables for optimal policy," Proceedings, Federal Reserve Bank of San Francisco.
  5. Giorgio Rodano & Enrico Saltari, 2001. "Consumption and fiscal policies: medium-run non-Keynesian effects," Temi di discussione (Economic working papers) 426, Bank of Italy, Economic Research and International Relations Area.
  6. Mark Gertler & Jordi Gali & Richard Clarida, 1999. "The Science of Monetary Policy: A New Keynesian Perspective," Journal of Economic Literature, American Economic Association, vol. 37(4), pages 1661-1707, December.
  7. Sandef, J. & Don, F. J. H. & van den Berg, P. J. C. M., 1984. "Adjustment of projections to recent observations," European Economic Review, Elsevier, vol. 26(1-2), pages 153-166.
  8. Laurence H. Meyer, 2001. "Does money matter?," Review, Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis, issue May, pages 1-16.
  9. Michael Dotsey & Christopher Otrok, 1994. "M2 and monetary policy: a critical review of the recent debate," Economic Quarterly, Federal Reserve Bank of Richmond, issue Win, pages 41-49.
  10. Sandro Trento & Massimo Warglien, 2001. "Nuove tecnologie e cambiamenti organizzativi: alcune implicazioni per le imprese italiane," Temi di discussione (Economic working papers) 428, Bank of Italy, Economic Research and International Relations Area.
  11. Michael Dotsey & Carl D. Lantz & Lawrence Santucci, 2000. "Is money useful in the conduct of monetary policy?," Economic Quarterly, Federal Reserve Bank of Richmond, issue Fall, pages 23-48.
  12. Andrea Brandolini & Piero Cipollone, 2001. "Multifactor Productivity and Labour Quality in Italy, 1981-2000," Temi di discussione (Economic working papers) 422, Bank of Italy, Economic Research and International Relations Area.
  13. Kalchbrenner, J H & Tinsley, Peter A, 1976. "On the Use of Feedback Control in the Design of Aggregate Monetary Policy," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 66(2), pages 349-55, May.
  14. Domenico J. Marchetti & Francesco Nucci, 2001. "Labor effort over the business cycle," Temi di discussione (Economic working papers) 424, Bank of Italy, Economic Research and International Relations Area.
  15. repec:cup:cbooks:9780521783248 is not listed on IDEAS
  16. Eugenio Gaiotti & Andrea Generale, 2001. "Does monetary policy have asymmetric effects? A look at the investment decisions of Italian firms," Temi di discussione (Economic working papers) 429, Bank of Italy, Economic Research and International Relations Area.
  17. Dotsey, Michael & Hornstein, Andreas, 2003. "Should a monetary policymaker look at money?," Journal of Monetary Economics, Elsevier, vol. 50(3), pages 547-579, April.
  18. Nicoletti-Altimari, Sergio, 2001. "Does money lead inflation in the euro area?," Working Paper Series 0063, European Central Bank.
  19. Friedman, Benjamin M., 1990. "Targets and instruments of monetary policy," Handbook of Monetary Economics, in: B. M. Friedman & F. H. Hahn (ed.), Handbook of Monetary Economics, edition 1, volume 2, chapter 22, pages 1185-1230 Elsevier.
  20. Trecroci, Carmine & Vega, Juan Luis, 2000. "The information content of M3 for future inflation," Working Paper Series 0033, European Central Bank.
  21. Gaiotti, E. & Nicoletti-Altimari, S., 1996. "Monetary Policy Transmission, the Exchange Rate and Long-Term Yields under Different Hypothesis on Expectations," Papers 276, Banca Italia - Servizio di Studi.
  22. Benjamin M. Friedman, 1984. "The value of intermediate targets in implementing monetary policy," Proceedings - Economic Policy Symposium - Jackson Hole, Federal Reserve Bank of Kansas City, pages 169-199.
  23. Stefano Neri, 2001. "Assessing the effects of monetary and fiscal policy," Temi di discussione (Economic working papers) 425, Bank of Italy, Economic Research and International Relations Area.
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Citations

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Cited by:
  1. Paolo Angelini & Paolo Del Giovane & Stefano Siviero & Daniele Terlizzese, 2002. "Monetary Policy Rules for the Euro Area: What Role for National Information?," Temi di discussione (Economic working papers) 457, Bank of Italy, Economic Research and International Relations Area.
  2. Claus Brand & Hans-Eggert Reimers & Franz Seitz, 2003. "Narrow Money and the Business Cycle: Theoretical aspects and euro area evdence," Macroeconomics 0303012, EconWPA.
  3. Matteo Bugamelli & Luigi Infante, 2003. "Sunk Costs of Exports," Temi di discussione (Economic working papers) 469, Bank of Italy, Economic Research and International Relations Area.

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