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Macroeconomic forecasts under the prism of error-correction models

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Angelos A. Antzoulatos

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Abstract

When the error correction term exhibits persistence, its change may convey useful information about short-run economic dynamics, which, if not taken sufficiently into account by a forecasting model, could be associated with predictable forecast errors. Such errors are documented in the DRI forecasts for the U.S. consumption, GNP and imports. The strong results, together with the very general assumptions behind the theoretical framework, suggest that similar predictable errors may be pervasive in the forecasts of other large-scale econometric models. Key Words: Error Correction Models, Forecasting, Consumption, GNP, Imports.

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Paper provided by Federal Reserve Bank of New York in its series Research Paper with number 9728.

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Date of creation: 1997
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Handle: RePEc:fip:fednrp:9728

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Related research
Keywords: Econometric models ; Forecasting ; Consumption (Economics) ; Gross national product ; Imports;

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  1. Cantor, Richard, 1985. "The consumption function and the precautionary demand for savings," Economics Letters, Elsevier, vol. 17(3), pages 207-210. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
  2. Miller, Bruce L., 1976. "The effect on optimal consumption of increased uncertainty in labor income in the multiperiod case," Journal of Economic Theory, Elsevier, vol. 13(1), pages 154-167, August. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
  3. Engle, Robert F & Granger, Clive W J, 1987. "Co-integration and Error Correction: Representation, Estimation, and Testing," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 55(2), pages 251-76, March. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
  4. Ricardo J. Caballero, 1992. "Near-Rationality, Heterogeneity and Aggregate Consumption," NBER Working Papers 4035, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
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  5. Angelos A. Antzoulatos, 1996. "Error correction mechanisms and short-run expectations," Staff Reports 10, Federal Reserve Bank of New York. [Downloadable!]
  6. Campbell, John Y & Mankiw, N Gregory, 1990. "Permanent Income, Current Income, and Consumption," Journal of Business & Economic Statistics, American Statistical Association, vol. 8(3), pages 265-79, July.
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  7. Skinner, Jonathan, 1988. "Risky income, life cycle consumption, and precautionary savings," Journal of Monetary Economics, Elsevier, vol. 22(2), pages 237-255, September. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
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  8. Victor Zarnowitz, 1991. "Has Macro-Forecasting Failed?," NBER Working Papers 3867, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
  9. Lewis, Karen K, 1989. "Changing Beliefs and Systematic Rational Forecast Errors with Evidence from Foreign Exchange," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 79(4), pages 621-36, September. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
  10. Deaton, Angus, 1991. "Saving and Liquidity Constraints," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 59(5), pages 1221-48, September. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
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  11. Foley, Duncan K & Hellwig, Martin F, 1975. "Asset Management with Trading Uncertainty," Review of Economic Studies, Blackwell Publishing, vol. 42(3), pages 327-46, July. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
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  12. Davidson, James E H, et al, 1978. "Econometric Modelling of the Aggregate Time-Series Relationship between Consumers' Expenditure and Income in the United Kingdom," Economic Journal, Royal Economic Society, vol. 88(352), pages 661-92, December. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
  13. Alogoskoufis, George & Smith, Ron, 1991. " On Error Correction Models: Specification, Interpretation, Estimation," Journal of Economic Surveys, Blackwell Publishing, vol. 5(1), pages 97-128.
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