House Prices and Housing Investment in Sweden and the UK. Econometric analysis for the period 1970-1998
AbstractWe estimate quarterly dynamic housing demand and investment supply models for Sweden and UK for the sample period 1970-1998 using an Error Correction Method (ECM). This method requires as a preliminary step that we test for the order of integration and cointegration. The ECM models seem appropriate as the dynamics of both short-run (changes) and (long- run levels) adjustment processes are modelled. To facilitate comparisons of results between Sweden and UK we model both countries identically with approximately almost the same exogenous variables. The results indicate that the volatility in house prices and housing investment can be sought in the fundamentals representing the demand and supply sides in accordance with theoretical conceptions and experience of how the housing market works. The long run income elasticities for Sweden and UK are constrained to be 1.0 and 1.0 respectively. The long runs semi- elasticity for interest rates are 2.1 and 0.9 for Sweden and UK. The speed of adjustment on the demand side is 0.12 and 0.23 and on the supply side is 0.06 and 0.48 for Sweden respectively UK. Granger causality tests indicate that income Granger causes prices for Sweden, while for UK there is also a feedback from house prices to income. Prices Granger cause financial wealth for Sweden, while for UK it's vice versa. House prices cause household debt for Sweden, while for UK there is a feedback from debt. Interest rates Granger cause house prices for UK and Sweden. In both countries Tobin’s q Granger cause housing investment. Generally the diagnostic tests indicate that the model specifications were satisfactory to the unknown data generating process. Keywords: House prices, Housing investment, Tobins' q, Error Correction, Cointegration, long run and elasticities, forecasting ability.
Download InfoIf you experience problems downloading a file, check if you have the proper application to view it first. In case of further problems read the IDEAS help page. Note that these files are not on the IDEAS site. Please be patient as the files may be large.
Bibliographic InfoPaper provided by EconWPA in its series Macroeconomics with number 0409022.
Date of creation: 23 Sep 2004
Date of revision:
Note: Type of Document - pdf
Contact details of provider:
Web page: http://188.8.131.52
House prices; Housing investment; Tobins' q; Error Correction; Cointegration; long run and elasticities; forecasting ability.;
Find related papers by JEL classification:
- E - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics
This paper has been announced in the following NEP Reports:
- NEP-ALL-2004-09-30 (All new papers)
- NEP-MAC-2004-09-30 (Macroeconomics)
- NEP-URE-2004-09-30 (Urban & Real Estate Economics)
Please report citation or reference errors to , or , if you are the registered author of the cited work, log in to your RePEc Author Service profile, click on "citations" and make appropriate adjustments.:
- Alogoskoufis, George & Smith, Ron, 1991. " On Error Correction Models: Specification, Interpretation, Estimation," Journal of Economic Surveys, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 5(1), pages 97-128.
- Clements, Michael P. & Hendry, David F., 1997. "An empirical study of seasonal unit roots in forecasting," International Journal of Forecasting, Elsevier, vol. 13(3), pages 341-355, September.
- Davidson, James E H, et al, 1978. "Econometric Modelling of the Aggregate Time-Series Relationship between Consumers' Expenditure and Income in the United Kingdom," Economic Journal, Royal Economic Society, vol. 88(352), pages 661-92, December.
- Case, Karl E. & Quigley, John M. & Shiller, Robert J., 2012.
"Comparing Wealth Effects: The Stock Market versus The Housing Market,"
Department of Economics, Working Paper Series
qt6px1d1sc, Department of Economics, Institute for Business and Economic Research, UC Berkeley.
- Case Karl E. & Quigley John M. & Shiller Robert J., 2005. "Comparing Wealth Effects: The Stock Market versus the Housing Market," The B.E. Journal of Macroeconomics, De Gruyter, vol. 5(1), pages 1-34, May.
- Case, Karl E. & Quigley, John M. & Shiller, Robert J., 2001. "Comparing Wealth Effects: The Stock Market versus The Housing Market," Department of Economics, Working Paper Series qt44k6g6vx, Department of Economics, Institute for Business and Economic Research, UC Berkeley.
- Case, Karl E. & Quigley, John M. & Shiller, Robert J., 2005. "Comparing Wealth Effects: The Stock Market versus the Housing Market," Berkeley Program on Housing and Urban Policy, Working Paper Series qt28d3s92s, Berkeley Program on Housing and Urban Policy.
- Karl E. Case & Robert J. Shiller & John M. Quigley, 2001. "Comparing Wealth Effects: The Stock Market Versus the Housing Market," NBER Working Papers 8606, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
- Karl E. Case & John M. Quigley & Robert J. Shiller, 2001. "Comparing Wealth Effects: The Stock Market versus the Housing Market," Cowles Foundation Discussion Papers 1335, Cowles Foundation for Research in Economics, Yale University.
- Karl E. Case, John M. Quigley, Robert J. Shiller., 2001. "Comparing Wealth Effects: The Stock Market versus The Housing Market," Economics Working Papers E01-308, University of California at Berkeley.
- Bharat Barot, 2001.
"An Econometric Demand�Supply Model For Swedish Private Housing,"
European Journal of Housing Policy,
Taylor and Francis Journals, vol. 1(3), pages 417-444, December.
- Bharat Barot, 2001. "An Econometric Demand-Supply Model For Swedish Private Housing," International Journal of Housing Policy, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 1(3), pages 417-444.
- Barot, Bharat & Takala, Kari, 1998. "House Prices and Inflation: A Cointegration Analysis for Finland and Sweden," Research Discussion Papers 12/1998, Bank of Finland.
- Dolado, Juan J & Jenkinson, Tim & Sosvilla-Rivero, Simon, 1990. " Cointegration and Unit Roots," Journal of Economic Surveys, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 4(3), pages 249-73.
- Breusch, T S, 1978. "Testing for Autocorrelation in Dynamic Linear Models," Australian Economic Papers, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 17(31), pages 334-55, December.
- Engle, Robert F & Granger, Clive W J, 1987. "Co-integration and Error Correction: Representation, Estimation, and Testing," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 55(2), pages 251-76, March.
- Berg, Lennart & Bergstrom, Reinhold, 1995. " Housing and Financial Wealth, Financial Deregulation and Consumption--The Swedish Case," Scandinavian Journal of Economics, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 97(3), pages 421-39, September.
- Laurence Boone & Claude Giorno & Pete Richardson, 1998. "Stock Market Fluctuations and Consumption Behaviour: Some Recent Evidence," OECD Economics Department Working Papers 208, OECD Publishing.
- Ming-Chi Chen & Kanak Patel, 1998. "House Price Dynamics and Granger Causality: An Analysis of Taipei New Dwelling Market," International Real Estate Review, Asian Real Estate Society, vol. 1(1), pages 101-126.
- Philip Arestis & Ana Rosa Gonzalez, 2013. "Modeling the Housing Market in OECD Countries," Economics Working Paper Archive wp_764, Levy Economics Institute, The.
For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: (EconWPA).
If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.
If references are entirely missing, you can add them using this form.
If the full references list an item that is present in RePEc, but the system did not link to it, you can help with this form.
If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.
Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.