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Stock Market Fluctuations and Consumption Behaviour: Some Recent Evidence

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Laurence Boone
Claude Giorno
Pete Richardson ()

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Abstract

This paper examines the likely influence of recent stock market fluctuations on major OECD economies, focusing on wealth effects and consumption. After reviewing the relevant theoretical framework and available empirical evidence, consumption functions are estimated for the US including the influence of financial wealth. The resulting estimates of the marginal propensity to consume out of financial wealth are extrapolated to other G7 countries, allowing for differences in stock market capitalisation, and compared with ones obtained more directly from consumption functions that include stock market prices as an explanatory variable. Simulations are then carried out to assess the potential world impact of a major fall in stock market prices in the G7 countries using a version of the OECD INTERLINK model which embodies the latter equations. The overall effects are found to be significant, particularly when relevant international linkage mechanisms are taken into account ...


Ce papier analyse les effets richesses potentiels générés par les fluctuations récentes des marché d’actifs financiers des principals économies de l’OCDE. Après une présentation rapide des fondements théoriques et des résultats empiriques récents, des fonctions de consommation incluant une variable de richesse financière sont estimées pour les Etats-Unis, permettant de calculer des propensions marginales à consommer les gains de richesse financière. Celles-ci sont alors extrapolées pour les autres pays du G7, en tenant compte des différences de ratio de capitalisation boursière. Elles sont ensuite comparées à des propensions estimées à partir de fonctions de consommation incluant le prix des actifs boursiers. Ces dernières sont intégrées au modèle INTERLINK de l’OCDE, ce qui permet de simuler l’impact potentiel sur l’activité réel d’un crash financier dans les pays du G7. Les effets sur l’économie globale sont significatifs, particulièrement lorsque sont pris en compte les ...

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Paper provided by OECD Economics Department in its series OECD Economics Department Working Papers with number 208.

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Date of creation: 02 Dec 1998
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Handle: RePEc:oec:ecoaaa:208-en

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  1. W. Jos Jansen & Ad C.J. Stokman, 2004. "Foreign Direct Investment and International Business Cycle Comovement," Macroeconomics 0402029, EconWPA. [Downloadable!]
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  2. Francesco Zollino, 2001. "Personal Saving and Social Security in Italy: Fresh Evidence from a Time Series Analysis," Temi di discussione (Economic working papers) 417, Bank of Italy, Economic Research Department. [Downloadable!]
  3. Tamim Bayoumi & Hali Edison, 2003. "Is Wealth Increasingly Driving Consuption?," DNB Staff Reports (discontinued) 101, Netherlands Central Bank. [Downloadable!]
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  5. W.Jos Jansen & Ad C.J.Stokman, 2003. "The Importance of Multinational Companies for Global Economic Linkages," DNB Staff Reports (discontinued) 99, Netherlands Central Bank. [Downloadable!]
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  6. Ricardo M. Sousa, 2003. "Property of stocks and wealth effects on consumption," NIPE Working Papers 2/2003, NIPE - Universidade do Minho. [Downloadable!]
  7. Abdelaziz Rouabah, 2006. "L'identité de Fisher et l'interaction entre l'inflation et la rentabilité des actions: l'importance des régimes sous-jacents aux marchés boursiers," BCL working papers cahier_etude_18, Central Bank of Luxembourg. [Downloadable!]
  8. Bharat Barot & Zan Yang, 2004. "House Prices and Housing Investment in Sweden and the UK. Econometric analysis for the period 1970-1998," Macroeconomics 0409022, EconWPA. [Downloadable!]
  9. Nikola Dvornak & Marion Kohler, 2003. "Housing Wealth, Stock Market Wealth and Consumption: A Panel Analysis for Australia," RBA Research Discussion Papers rdp2003-07, Reserve Bank of Australia. [Downloadable!]
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  10. Johann Burgstaller, 2002. "Are stock returns a leading indicator for real macroeconomic developments?," Economics working papers 2002-07, Department of Economics, Johannes Kepler University Linz, Austria. [Downloadable!]
  11. Nicholas Apergis & Stephen M. Miller, 2005. "Consumption asymmetry and the stock market: New evidence through a threshold adjustment model," Working papers 2005-08, University of Connecticut, Department of Economics. [Downloadable!]
  12. Bharat Barot, 2004. "Growth and Business Cycles for the Swedish Economy 1963-1999," Macroeconomics 0409017, EconWPA. [Downloadable!]
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  13. Nicholas Apergis & Stephen M. Miller, 2004. "Consumption Asymmetry and the Stock Market: Empirical Evidence," Working papers 2004-43, University of Connecticut, Department of Economics, revised Apr 2006. [Downloadable!]
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  14. Nicholas Apergis & Stephen M. Miller, 2004. "Consumption Asymmetry and the Stock Market: Further Evidence," Working papers 2004-19, University of Connecticut, Department of Economics. [Downloadable!]
  15. Hali J. Edison & Torsten Sløk, 2001. "Wealth Effects and the New Economy," IMF Working Papers 01/77, International Monetary Fund. [Downloadable!]
  16. Barot, Bharat & Yang, Zan, 2002. "House Prices and Housing Investment in Sweden and the United Kingdom: Econometric Analysis for the Period 1970-1998," Working Paper 80, National Institute of Economic Research.
  17. Nicholas Apergis & Stephen M. Miller, 2005. "Resurrecting the Wealth Effect on Consumption: Further Analysis and Extension," Working papers 2005-57, University of Connecticut, Department of Economics. [Downloadable!]
  18. Norbert Funke, 2003. "Stock Market Developments and Private Consumer Spending in Emerging Markets," IMF Working Papers 02/238, International Monetary Fund. [Downloadable!]
  19. Yanick Desnoyers, 2001. "L'effet de la richesse sur la consommation aux États-Unis," Working Papers 01-14, Bank of Canada. [Downloadable!]
  20. Quentin Wibaut, 2000. "Politique monétaire et prix des actifs: le cas des Etats-Unis," Documents series 200008-3, National Bank of Belgium. [Downloadable!]
  21. Khoon Lek Goh & Richard Downing, 2002. "Modelling New Zealand Consumption Expenditure over the 1990s," Treasury Working Paper Series 02/19, New Zealand Treasury. [Downloadable!]
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