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Near-Rationality, Heterogeneity, and Aggregate Consumption

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Author Info
Caballero, Ricardo J

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Abstract

The simple permanent-income model provides a good description of the medium-long run behavior of aggregate non-durables consumption, but fails to describe its short run behavior. In this paper I, present a non-representative agent model with near-rational macroeconomic units a la Akerlof-Yellen that simultaneously explains the observed excess smoothness of consumption to wealth innovations and the excess sensitivity of consumption to lagged income changes. This models also explains conditional asymmetries found in the data: in good times, consumers respond more promptly to positive than negative wealth shocks; while the opposite is true in bad times. In spite of the presence of large non-diversifiable idiosyncratic uncertainty, the estimated dollar equivalent utility cost of the macroeconomic near-rational strategy required to explain the aggregate facts is only about 0.037 percent of consumption per year, where [gamma] is the coefficient of relative risk aversion. Copyright 1995 by Ohio State University Press.

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Publisher Info
Article provided by Blackwell Publishing in its journal Journal of Money, Credit and Banking.

Volume (Year): 27 (1995)
Issue (Month): 1 (February)
Pages: 29-48
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Handle: RePEc:mcb:jmoncb:v:27:y:1995:i:1:p:29-48

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References listed on IDEAS
Please report citation or reference errors to , or , if you are the registered author of the cited work, log in to your RePEc Author Service profile, click on "citations" and make appropriate adjustments.:
  1. John H. Cochrane, 1989. "The Sensitivity of Tests of the Intertemporal Allocation of Consumption to Near-Rational Alternatives," NBER Working Papers 2730, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
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  2. Hall, Robert E, 1978. "Stochastic Implications of the Life Cycle-Permanent Income Hypothesis: Theory and Evidence," Journal of Political Economy, University of Chicago Press, vol. 86(6), pages 971-87, December. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
    Other versions:
  3. Caballero, R.J., 1990. "A Fallacy Of Composition," Discussion Papers 1990_01, Columbia University, Department of Economics.
  4. Akerlof, George A & Yellen, Janet L, 1985. "Can Small Deviations from Rationality Make Significant Differences to Economic Equilibria?," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 75(4), pages 708-20, September. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
  5. Deaton, A. & Grosh, M., 1998. "Consumption," Papers 191, Princeton, Woodrow Wilson School - Development Studies.
  6. Robert E. Hall, 1987. "Consumption," NBER Working Papers 2265, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
  7. Ricardo J. Caballero, 1991. "Durable Goods: An Explanation for Their Slow Adjustment," NBER Working Papers 3748, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
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Cited by:
(explanations, Please report citation or reference errors to , or , if you are the registered author of the cited work, log in to your RePEc Author Service profile, click on "citations" and make appropriate adjustments.)

  1. Angelos A. Antzoulatos, 1997. "Macroeconomic forecasts under the prism of error-correction models," Research Paper 9728, Federal Reserve Bank of New York. [Downloadable!]
  2. Katsunori Watanabe & Takayuki Watanabe & Tsutomu Watanabe, 1999. "Tax Policy and Consumer Spending: Evidence from Japanese Fiscal Experiments," NBER Working Papers 7252, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
  3. Ricardo Reis, 2004. "Inattentive Consumers," NBER Working Papers 10883, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
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  4. Steven Cook, 2000. "Durability and Asymmetry in UK Consumers' Expenditure," International Review of Applied Economics, Taylor and Francis Journals, vol. 14(1), pages 113-121, January. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
  5. David S. Johnson & Jonathan A. Parker & Nicholas S. Souleles, 2004. "Household Expenditure and the Income Tax Rebates of 2001," NBER Working Papers 10784, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
    Other versions:
  6. Angelos A. Antzoulatos, 1997. "Non-linear consumption dynamics," Research Paper 9726, Federal Reserve Bank of New York. [Downloadable!]
  7. Nicholas Apergis & Stephen M. Miller, 2004. "Consumption Asymmetry and the Stock Market: Further Evidence," Working papers 2004-19, University of Connecticut, Department of Economics. [Downloadable!]
  8. James B. Bullard & George W. Evans & Seppo Honkapohja, 2007. "A model of near-rational exuberance," Working Papers 2007-009, Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis. [Downloadable!]
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