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Grasshoppers, Ants, and Pre-Retirement Wealth: A Test of Permanent Income

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Erik Hurst

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Abstract

This paper shows that households who enter retirement with low wealth consistently followed non-permanent income consumption rules during their working years. Using the Panel Study of Income Dynamics (PSID), household wealth in 1989 is predicted for a sample of 50-65 year olds using both current and past income, occupation, demographic, employment, and health characteristics. Using the residuals from this first stage regression, the sample of pre-retired households is subsetted into households who save 'lower' than predicted and all other households. The panel component of the PSID is then used to analyze the consumption behavior of these households early in their lifecycle. It is shown that these low pre-retirement wealth households had consumption growth that responded to predictable changes in income during their early working years. No such behavior was found among the other pre-retired households. Moreover, the low wealth residual households responded both to predictable income increases as well as predictable income declines, a result that is inconsistent with a liquidity constraints explanation. After ruling out other theories of consumption to explain these facts, it is concluded that households who entered retirement with lower than predicted wealth consistently followed near sighted consumption plans during their working lives.

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Paper provided by National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc in its series NBER Working Papers with number 10098.

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Date of creation: Nov 2003
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Handle: RePEc:nbr:nberwo:10098

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E2 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Macroeconomics: Consumption, Saving, Production, Employment, and Investment
J2 - Labor and Demographic Economics - - Demand and Supply of Labor

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Please report citation or reference errors to , or , if you are the registered author of the cited work, log in to your RePEc Author Service profile, click on "citations" and make appropriate adjustments.:
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    Other versions:
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Cited by:
(explanations, Please report citation or reference errors to , or , if you are the registered author of the cited work, log in to your RePEc Author Service profile, click on "citations" and make appropriate adjustments.)

  1. Kingston, Geoffrey, 2004. "Superannuation: A Guide to the Field for Australian Economists," Economic Analysis and Policy (EAP), Queensland University of Technology (QUT), School of Economics and Finance, vol. 34(2), pages 203-26, September. [Downloadable!]
  2. Burman, L.E. & Coe, N.B. & Dworsky, M. & Gale, W.G., 2008. "Effects of Public Policies on the Disposition of Pre-retirement Lump-Sum Distributions: Rational and Behavioral Influences," Discussion Paper 2008-94, Tilburg University, Center for Economic Research. [Downloadable!]
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