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Grasshoppers, Ants and Pre-Retirement Wealth: A Test of Permanent Income Consumers

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Author Info
Erik Hurst (University of Chicago and NBER)

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Abstract

This paper shows that households who enter retirement with low wealth consistently followed non-permanent income consumption rules during their working years. Using the Panel Study of Income Dynamics (PSID), household wealth in 1989 is predicted for a sample of 50-65 year olds using both current and past income, occupation, demographic, employment, and health characteristics. Using the residuals from this first stage regression, the sample of pre-retired households is subsetted into households who save ‘lower’ than predicted and all other households. By construction, these households had similar opportunities to save; the average household in both these sub-samples are very similar along all observable income and demographic characteristics. It is then shown that households in the low wealth residual sample had much larger declines in consumption upon retirement. Such a result is consistent with the household having inadequately planned for retirement. The panel component of the PSID is then used to analyze the consumption behavior of these households early in their lifecycle. It is shown that these low pre-retirement wealth households had consumption growth that responded to predictable changes in income during their early working years. No such behavior was found among the other pre-retired households. Moreover, the low wealth residual households responded both to predictable income increases as well as predictable income declines, a result that is inconsistent with a liquidity constraints explanation. After ruling out other theories of consumption to explain these facts, it is concluded that households who entered retirement with lower than predicted wealth consistently followed near sighted consumption plans during their working lives.

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Paper provided by University of Michigan, Michigan Retirement Research Center in its series Working Papers with number wp088.

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Length: 46 pages
Date of creation: Sep 2004
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Handle: RePEc:mrr:papers:wp088

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Please report citation or reference errors to , or , if you are the registered author of the cited work, log in to your RePEc Author Service profile, click on "citations" and make appropriate adjustments.:
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  14. repec:fth:harver:1435 is not listed on IDEAS
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  19. John Ameriks & Andrew Caplin & John Leahy, 2003. "Wealth Accumulation And The Propensity To Plan," The Quarterly Journal of Economics, MIT Press, vol. 118(3), pages 1007-1047, August. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
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Full references

Cited by:
(explanations, Please report citation or reference errors to , or , if you are the registered author of the cited work, log in to your RePEc Author Service profile, click on "citations" and make appropriate adjustments.)

  1. Ricardo Reis, 2004. "Inattentive Consumers," NBER Working Papers 10883, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
    Other versions:
  2. Annamaria Lusardi, 2006. "Planning and Financial Literacy: How Do Women Fare?," Working Papers wp136, University of Michigan, Michigan Retirement Research Center. [Downloadable!]
  3. Erik Hurst & Arthur Kennickell & Annamaria Lusardi & Francisco Torralba, 2006. "Precautionary Savings and the Importance of Business Owners," CFS Working Paper Series 2006/16, Center for Financial Studies. [Downloadable!]
    Other versions:
  4. Joseph Gruber & Robert Martin, 2003. "Precautionary savings and the wealth distribution with illiquid durables," International Finance Discussion Papers 773, Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System (U.S.). [Downloadable!]
  5. Erik Hurst & Paul Willen, 2004. "Social Security and unsecured debt," Public Policy Discussion Paper 04-10, Federal Reserve Bank of Boston. [Downloadable!]
    Other versions:
  6. James Choi & David Laibson & Brigitte Madrian & Andrew Metrick, 2005. "Optimal Defaults and Active Decisions," Levine's Bibliography 666156000000000488, UCLA Department of Economics. [Downloadable!]
    Other versions:
  7. Robert F. Martin Joseph W. Gruber, 2004. "Does Housing Wealth Make Us Less Equal? The Role of Durable Goods in the Distribution of Wealth," Econometric Society 2004 North American Summer Meetings 15, Econometric Society. [Downloadable!]
  8. John Karl Scholz & Ananth Seshadri & Surachai Khitatrakun, 2004. "Are Americans Saving "Optimally" for Retirement?," NBER Working Papers 10260, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
    Other versions:
  9. Jürgen Maurer & André Meier, 2008. "Smooth it Like the “Joneses?” Estimating Peer-Group Effects in Intertemporal Consumption Choice," MEA discussion paper series 08167, Mannheim Research Institute for the Economics of Aging (MEA), University of Mannheim. [Downloadable!]
  10. Annamaria Lusardi, 2008. "Household Saving Behavior: The Role of Financial Literacy, Information, and Financial Education Programs," NBER Working Papers 13824, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
  11. Erik Hurst, 2008. "The Retirement of a Consumption Puzzle," NBER Working Papers 13789, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
  12. Annamaria Lusardi & Olivia Mitchell, 2007. "Financial Literacy and Retirement Planning: New Evidence from the Rand American Life Panel," Working Papers wp157, University of Michigan, Michigan Retirement Research Center. [Downloadable!]
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