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New Directions in Latin American Macroeconometrics

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  • Thomas M Fullerton Jr

    (University of Texas at El Paso)

  • Eiichi Araki

    (St. Andrews Univesity at Osaka)

Abstract

An overview of modeling and forecasting methodologies for price trends and other macroeconomic variables in Latin America is provided. Five approaches are reviewed within the time series and econometric traditions from which they are selected. Each method is reviewed within the context of data constraints commonly encountered throughout the region.

Suggested Citation

  • Thomas M Fullerton Jr & Eiichi Araki, 2004. "New Directions in Latin American Macroeconometrics," Development and Comp Systems 0408002, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    • Handle: RePEc:wpa:wuwpdc:0408002
    Note: Type of Document - doc; pages: 14
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    References listed on IDEAS

    as
    1. Runkle, David E, 1987. "Vector Autoregressions and Reality," Journal of Business & Economic Statistics, American Statistical Association, vol. 5(4), pages 437-442, October.
    2. Thomas M Fullerton Jr, 2004. "Currency Movements and International Border Crossings," Urban/Regional 0407008, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    3. Wallis, Kenneth F & Whitley, John D, 1991. " Large-Scale Econometric Models of National Economies," Scandinavian Journal of Economics, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 93(2), pages 283-314.
    4. Thomas M Fullerton Jr, 2004. "A Composite Approach to Forecasting State Government Revenues," Public Economics 0408006, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    5. Nadeem U. Haque & Kajal Lahiri & Peter J. Montiel, 1990. "A Macroeconometric Model for Developing Countries," IMF Staff Papers, Palgrave Macmillan, vol. 37(3), pages 537-559, September.
    6. Thomas M Fullerton Jr, 2004. "Confessions of an International Forecaster," Econometrics 0409006, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    7. Tomas M Fullerton & Ajay Kapur, 1991. "Predicción de multiplicadores monetarios en Colombia, Ecuador y Venezuela," Lecturas de Economía, Universidad de Antioquia, Departamento de Economía, issue 35, pages 53-86.
    8. Palma, Pedro A. & Fontiveros, Domingo, 1988. "A comparative sensitivity analysis of the MODVEN VII macroeconomic model for Venezuela," Economic Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 5(4), pages 286-346, October.
    9. Thomas M Fullerton Jr, 2004. "Short-Run Price Movements in Ecuador," Macroeconomics 0407028, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    10. Kamas, Linda, 1995. "Monetary policy and inflation under the crawling peg: Some evidence from VARs for Colombia," Journal of Development Economics, Elsevier, vol. 46(1), pages 145-161, February.
    11. Thomas M. Fullerton, 1993. "Un modelo macroeconométrico para pronosticar la economía colombiana," Revista ESPE - Ensayos Sobre Política Económica, Banco de la República, vol. 12(24), pages 101-136, December.
    12. Runkle, David E, 1987. "Vector Autoregressions and Reality: Reply," Journal of Business & Economic Statistics, American Statistical Association, vol. 5(4), pages 454-454, October.
    13. David E. Runkle, 1987. "Vector autoregressions and reality," Staff Report 107, Federal Reserve Bank of Minneapolis.
    14. Clemen, Robert T., 1989. "Combining forecasts: A review and annotated bibliography," International Journal of Forecasting, Elsevier, vol. 5(4), pages 559-583.
    15. Lutkepohl, Helmut, 1990. "Asymptotic Distributions of Impulse Response Functions and Forecast Error Variance Decompositions of Vector Autoregressive Models," The Review of Economics and Statistics, MIT Press, vol. 72(1), pages 116-125, February.
    16. Edwards, Sebastian, 1993. "Openness, Trade Liberalization, and Growth in Developing Countries," Journal of Economic Literature, American Economic Association, vol. 31(3), pages 1358-1393, September.
    17. Fullerton, Thomas Jr., 1993. "Inflationary trends in Colombia," Journal of Policy Modeling, Elsevier, vol. 15(4), pages 463-468, August.
    18. Carl F. Christ, 1993. "Assessing applied econometric results," Review, Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis, issue Mar, pages 71-94.
    19. Ize, Alain & Salas, Javier, 1985. "Prices and output in the Mexican economy Emperical testing of alternative hypotheses," Journal of Development Economics, Elsevier, vol. 17(3), pages 175-199, April.
    20. Davidson, James E H, et al, 1978. "Econometric Modelling of the Aggregate Time-Series Relationship between Consumers' Expenditure and Income in the United Kingdom," Economic Journal, Royal Economic Society, vol. 88(352), pages 661-692, December.
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    22. Zellner, A., 1992. ""Time Series Analysis, Forecasting and Econometric Modeling : The Structural Econometric Modeling , Time Series Analysis (SEMTSA) Approach"," Papers 90-92-22, California Irvine - School of Social Sciences.
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    Cited by:

    1. Thomas M. Fullerton JR., 2001. "Specification of a Borderplex Econometric Forecasting Model," International Regional Science Review, , vol. 24(2), pages 245-260, April.
    2. Thomas Fullerton & Miwa Hattori & Cuauhtémoc Calderón, 2001. "Error correction exchange rate modeling: Evidence for Mexico," Journal of Economics and Finance, Springer;Academy of Economics and Finance, vol. 25(3), pages 358-368, September.
    3. Thomas M Fullerton Jr, 2004. "Cross Border Business Cycle (Impacts on Commercial Electricity Demand," Urban/Regional 0407010, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    4. Thomas M. Fullerton, Jr., 1999. "Inflationary pressure determinants in México," Estudios Económicos, El Colegio de México, Centro de Estudios Económicos, vol. 14(1), pages 33-51.
    5. Alejandro D. Jacobo, 2002. "Taking the business cycle´s pulse to some Latin American economies: Is there a rhythmical beat?," Estudios Económicos, El Colegio de México, Centro de Estudios Económicos, vol. 17(2), pages 219-245.
    6. Thomas M Fullerton Jr & Eiichi Araki, 2004. "A Theoretical Model of Industrial Economy Inflationary Dynamics," Macroeconomics 0408007, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    7. Thomas M Fullerton Jr & Roberto Tinajero, 2004. "Short-Run Price Dynamics in Mexico," Macroeconomics 0407027, University Library of Munich, Germany.

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    More about this item

    Keywords

    Latin America; Macroeconometrics; Time Series;
    All these keywords.

    JEL classification:

    • O11 - Economic Development, Innovation, Technological Change, and Growth - - Economic Development - - - Macroeconomic Analyses of Economic Development

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