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Specification of a Borderplex Econometric Forecasting Model

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  • Thomas M Fullerton Jr

    (University of Texas at El Paso)

Abstract

Historically linked by geography, trade, and culture, border areas of the United States and Mexico are becoming even more closely integrated by the elimination of trade and investment barriers under the North American Free Trade Agreement. Greater economic integration raises the question of whether the traditional approach to regional econometric modeling is applicable to border metropolitan areas. This paper examines this issue with respect to the El Paso - Ciudad Juarez borderplex by specifying and estimating an econometric model and then simulating it under different currency conditions. Simulation output from the model is then compared and contrasted with extroplations from a Bayesian vector autoregression model. Results indicate that the traditional model provides a viable means for analyzing international border region business trends.

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Bibliographic Info

Paper provided by EconWPA in its series Urban/Regional with number 0405006.

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Length: 19 pages
Date of creation: 25 May 2004
Date of revision:
Handle: RePEc:wpa:wuwpur:0405006

Note: Type of Document - doc; pages: 19
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Web page: http://128.118.178.162

Related research

Keywords: Border economics; regional econometrics; currency devaluation;

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References

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  1. Christopher D. Carroll & Jeffrey C. Fuhrer & David W. Wilcox, 1991. "Does consumer sentiment affect household spending? If so why?," Finance and Economics Discussion Series 168, Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System (U.S.).
  2. Thomas M. Fullerton Jr. & Carol T. West, 2004. "Regional Econometric Housing Start Forecast Accuracy in Florida," Urban/Regional 0403004, EconWPA.
  3. Carroll, Christopher D & Fuhrer, Jeffrey C & Wilcox, David W, 1994. "Does Consumer Sentiment Forecast Household Spending? If So, Why?," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 84(5), pages 1397-1408, December.
  4. Zarnowitz, Victor & Lambros, Louis A, 1987. "Consensus and Uncertainty in Economic Prediction," Journal of Political Economy, University of Chicago Press, vol. 95(3), pages 591-621, June.
  5. David E. Runkle, 1987. "Vector autoregressions and reality," Staff Report 107, Federal Reserve Bank of Minneapolis.
  6. Pflaumer, Peter, 1992. "Forecasting US population totals with the Box-Jenkins approach," International Journal of Forecasting, Elsevier, vol. 8(3), pages 329-338, November.
  7. Carol Taylor West & Thomas M. Fullerton Jr., 2004. "Assessing the Historical Accuracy of Regional Economic Forecasts," Urban/Regional 0404009, EconWPA.
  8. Runkle, David E, 1987. "Vector Autoregressions and Reality," Journal of Business & Economic Statistics, American Statistical Association, vol. 5(4), pages 437-42, October.
  9. Hanson, Gordon H, 1996. "Localization Economies, Vertical Organization, and Trade," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 86(5), pages 1266-78, December.
  10. Gonzalez, Pilar & Moral, Paz, 1995. "An analysis of the international tourism demand in Spain," International Journal of Forecasting, Elsevier, vol. 11(2), pages 233-251, June.
  11. Thomas M Fullerton Jr, 2004. "Cross Border Business Cycle (Impacts on Commercial Electricity Demand," Urban/Regional 0407010, EconWPA.
  12. Runkle, David E, 1987. "Vector Autoregressions and Reality: Reply," Journal of Business & Economic Statistics, American Statistical Association, vol. 5(4), pages 454, October.
  13. Thomas M Fullerton Jr & Eiichi Araki, 2004. "New Directions in Latin American Macroeconometrics," Development and Comp Systems 0408002, EconWPA.
  14. Thomas M Fullerton Jr, 2004. "Rational Reactions to Temporary Sales Tax Legislation," Public Economics 0408004, EconWPA.
  15. Thomas M Fullerton Jr, 2004. "International Trade and Investment," Urban/Regional 0409010, EconWPA.
  16. Victor Zarnowitz & Louis A. Lambros, 1987. "Consensus and Uncertainty in Economic Prediction," NBER Working Papers 1171, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
  17. Granger, Clive W J, 1996. "Can We Improve the Perceived Quality of Economic Forecasts?," Journal of Applied Econometrics, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 11(5), pages 455-73, Sept.-Oct.
  18. Lester Hunt & Martin Snell, 1997. "Comparative Properties of Local Econometric Models in the UK," Regional Studies, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 31(9), pages 891-901.
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Citations

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Cited by:
  1. Thomas M Fullerton Jr, 2005. "Borderplex Bridge and Air Econometric Forecast Accuracy," Urban/Regional 0501005, EconWPA.
  2. De Leon, Marycruz & Fullerton, Thomas M., Jr. & Kelley, Brian W., 2009. "Tolls, Exchange Rates, and Borderplex International Bridge Traffic," MPRA Paper 19861, University Library of Munich, Germany.
  3. Thomas M Fullerton Jr & David A Schauer, 2004. "Short-Run Maquiladora Employment Dynamics," Urban/Regional 0407007, EconWPA.
  4. Thomas M Fullerton Jr & David A Schauer, 2004. "Regional Econometric Assessment of Aggregate Water Consumption Trends," Urban/Regional 0407006, EconWPA.
  5. Arnold Cote, K. Nicole & Smith, Wm. Doyle & Fullerton, Thomas M., Jr., 2010. "Municipal Non-Residential Real Property Valuation Forecast Accuracy," MPRA Paper 32116, University Library of Munich, Germany, revised 11 Feb 2011.
  6. Thomas M Fullerton Jr & Arturo Elias, 2004. "Short-Term Water Consumption Dynamics in El Paso, Texas," Others 0410005, EconWPA.
  7. Thomas M. Fullerton Jr. & George Novela, 2010. "Metropolitan Maquiladora Econometric Forecast Accuracy," Journal for Economic Forecasting, Institute for Economic Forecasting, vol. 0(3), pages 124-140, September.
  8. Thomas M. Fullerton Jr. & Juan Alberto Luevano & Carol Taylor West, 2004. "Accuracy of Regional Single-Family Housing Start Forecasts," Urban/Regional 0404010, EconWPA.
  9. Thomas M Fullerton Jr, 2004. "Empirical Evidence Regarding El Paso Property Tax Abatements: 1988-2001," Public Economics 0405007, EconWPA.
  10. Thomas M Fullerton Jr & Roberto Tinajero, 2004. "Cross Border Cargo Vehicle Flows," International Trade 0405006, EconWPA.
  11. Kincal, Gokce & Fullerton, Thomas M., Jr. & Holcomb, James H. & Barraza de Anda, Martha P., 2010. "Cross Border Business Cycle Impacts on the El Paso Housing Market," MPRA Paper 29095, University Library of Munich, Germany, revised 2010.

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