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Assessing the Historical Accuracy of Regional Economic Forecasts

Author

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  • Carol Taylor West

    (University of Florida)

  • Thomas M. Fullerton Jr.

    (University of Florida)

Abstract

This article provides a systematic review of regional employment forecasts in Florida and 19 metropolitan statistical areas. One-quarter- ahead to ten-quarter-ahead forecasts are analyzed for a seven-year period that includes a complete business cycle. Structural econometric model forecasts are shown to compare favorably to univariate benchmark extrapolations. Strucutral model dependency on macroeconometric model forecast inputs is not found to hamper regional predictive accuracy.

Suggested Citation

  • Carol Taylor West & Thomas M. Fullerton Jr., 2004. "Assessing the Historical Accuracy of Regional Economic Forecasts," Urban/Regional 0404009, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    • Handle: RePEc:wpa:wuwpur:0404009
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    References listed on IDEAS

    as
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    8. Weller, Barry R & Kurre, James A, 1987. "Applicability of the Transfer Function Approach to Forecasting Employment Levels in Small Regions," The Annals of Regional Science, Springer;Western Regional Science Association, vol. 21(1), pages 34-43, March.
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    12. Coomes, Paul A., 1992. "A Kalman filter formulation for noisy regional job data," International Journal of Forecasting, Elsevier, vol. 7(4), pages 473-481, March.
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    Citations

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    Cited by:

    1. Carol T. West & M. S. Deepak, 2001. "Policy Sensitivity in Dynamic Optimization Models: A Study Remembering William Alonso’s Regional Modeling Perspectives," International Regional Science Review, , vol. 24(3), pages 302-327, July.
    2. Thomas M. Fullerton JR., 2001. "Specification of a Borderplex Econometric Forecasting Model," International Regional Science Review, , vol. 24(2), pages 245-260, April.
    3. repec:rre:publsh:v:33:y:2003:i:1:p:85-103 is not listed on IDEAS
    4. Robert Lehmann & Klaus Wohlrabe, 2014. "Regional economic forecasting: state-of-the-art methodology and future challenges," Economics and Business Letters, Oviedo University Press, vol. 3(4), pages 218-231.
    5. Thomas M Fullerton Jr & David A Schauer, 2004. "Regional Econometric Assessment of Aggregate Water Consumption Trends," Urban/Regional 0407006, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    6. Federico Lampis, 2016. "Forecasting the sectoral GVA of a small Spanish region," Economics and Business Letters, Oviedo University Press, vol. 5(2), pages 38-44.
    7. Thomas M Fullerton Jr, 2005. "Borderplex Bridge and Air Econometric Forecast Accuracy," Urban/Regional 0501005, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    8. Fullerton, Jr., Thomas M. & Taylor West, Carol A., 1998. "Regional Econometric Housing Start Forecast Accuracy in Florida," The Review of Regional Studies, Southern Regional Science Association, vol. 28(3), pages 15-42, Winter.
    9. Eff, E. Anthon, 1998. "An Improved Technique for Obtaining Current Sub-state Income Estimates," The Review of Regional Studies, Southern Regional Science Association, vol. 28(2), pages 91-103, Fall.
    10. Thomas M. Fullerton Jr. & Juan Alberto Luevano & Carol Taylor West, 2004. "Accuracy of Regional Single-Family Housing Start Forecasts," Urban/Regional 0404010, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    11. Fullerton, Thomas Jr. & Laaksonen, Mika M. & West, Carol T., 2001. "Regional multi-family housing start forecast accuracy," International Journal of Forecasting, Elsevier, vol. 17(2), pages 171-180.

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    More about this item

    Keywords

    Regional econometrics; forecast accuracy assessment;

    JEL classification:

    • R - Urban, Rural, Regional, Real Estate, and Transportation Economics

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