Assessing the Historical Accuracy of Regional Economic Forecasts
AbstractThis article provides a systematic review of regional employment forecasts in Florida and 19 metropolitan statistical areas. One-quarter- ahead to ten-quarter-ahead forecasts are analyzed for a seven-year period that includes a complete business cycle. Structural econometric model forecasts are shown to compare favorably to univariate benchmark extrapolations. Strucutral model dependency on macroeconometric model forecast inputs is not found to hamper regional predictive accuracy.
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Bibliographic InfoPaper provided by EconWPA in its series Urban/Regional with number 0404009.
Length: 16 pages
Date of creation: 21 Apr 2004
Date of revision:
Note: Type of Document - doc; pages: 16
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Regional econometrics; forecast accuracy assessment;
Find related papers by JEL classification:
- R - Urban, Rural, Regional, Real Estate, and Transportation Economics
This paper has been announced in the following NEP Reports:
- NEP-ALL-2004-04-25 (All new papers)
- NEP-GEO-2004-04-25 (Economic Geography)
- NEP-URE-2004-04-25 (Urban & Real Estate Economics)
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