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Assessing the Historical Accuracy of Regional Economic Forecasts

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Author Info

  • Carol Taylor West

    (University of Florida)

  • Thomas M. Fullerton Jr.

    (University of Florida)

Abstract

This article provides a systematic review of regional employment forecasts in Florida and 19 metropolitan statistical areas. One-quarter- ahead to ten-quarter-ahead forecasts are analyzed for a seven-year period that includes a complete business cycle. Structural econometric model forecasts are shown to compare favorably to univariate benchmark extrapolations. Strucutral model dependency on macroeconometric model forecast inputs is not found to hamper regional predictive accuracy.

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Bibliographic Info

Paper provided by EconWPA in its series Urban/Regional with number 0404009.

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Length: 16 pages
Date of creation: 21 Apr 2004
Date of revision:
Handle: RePEc:wpa:wuwpur:0404009

Note: Type of Document - doc; pages: 16
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Web page: http://128.118.178.162

Related research

Keywords: Regional econometrics; forecast accuracy assessment;

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References

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  1. Weller, Barry R., 1989. "National indicator series as quantitative predictors of small region monthly employment levels," International Journal of Forecasting, Elsevier, vol. 5(2), pages 241-247.
  2. Ashley, Richard, 1988. "On the relative worth of recent macroeconomic forecasts," International Journal of Forecasting, Elsevier, vol. 4(3), pages 363-376.
  3. Coomes, Paul A., 1992. "A Kalman filter formulation for noisy regional job data," International Journal of Forecasting, Elsevier, vol. 7(4), pages 473-481, March.
  4. Mizrach, Bruce, 1992. "The distribution of the Theil U-statistic in bivariate normal populations," Economics Letters, Elsevier, vol. 38(2), pages 163-167, February.
  5. Paul A. Anderson, 1979. "Help for the regional economic forecaster: vector autoregression," Quarterly Review, Federal Reserve Bank of Minneapolis, issue Sum.
  6. Stephen K. McNees, 1992. "How large are economic forecast errors?," New England Economic Review, Federal Reserve Bank of Boston, issue Jul, pages 25-42.
  7. Stephen K. McNees, 1988. "How accurate are macroeconomic forecasts?," New England Economic Review, Federal Reserve Bank of Boston, issue Jul, pages 15-36.
  8. Taylor, Carol A., 1982. "Econometric modeling of urban and other substate areas : An analysis of alternative methodologies," Regional Science and Urban Economics, Elsevier, vol. 12(3), pages 425-448, August.
  9. Ahlburg, Dennis A. & Land, Kenneth C., 1992. "Population forecasting: Guest editors' introduction," International Journal of Forecasting, Elsevier, vol. 8(3), pages 289-299, November.
  10. Glennon, Dennis & Lane, Julia & Johnson, Stanley, 1987. "Regional econometric models that reflect labor market relations," International Journal of Forecasting, Elsevier, vol. 3(2), pages 299-312.
  11. Weller, Barry R & Kurre, James A, 1987. "Applicability of the Transfer Function Approach to Forecasting Employment Levels in Small Regions," The Annals of Regional Science, Springer, vol. 21(1), pages 34-43, March.
  12. Nelson, Charles R, 1972. "The Prediction Performance of the FRB-MIT-PENN Model of the U.S. Economy," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 62(5), pages 902-17, December.
  13. Fullerton, Thomas Jr., 1989. "A composite approach to forecasting state government revenues: Case study of the Idaho sales tax," International Journal of Forecasting, Elsevier, vol. 5(3), pages 373-380.
  14. George I. Treyz & Dan S. Rickman & Gang Shao, 1991. "The REMI Economic-Demographic Forecasting and Simulation Model," International Regional Science Review, , vol. 14(3), pages 221-253, December.
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Citations

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Cited by:
  1. Fullerton, Jr., Thomas M. & Taylor West, Carol A., 1998. "Regional Econometric Housing Start Forecast Accuracy in Florida," The Review of Regional Studies, Southern Regional Science Association, vol. 28(3), pages 15-42, Winter.
  2. Thomas M. Fullerton JR., 2001. "Specification of a Borderplex Econometric Forecasting Model," International Regional Science Review, , vol. 24(2), pages 245-260, April.
  3. Thomas M Fullerton Jr & David A Schauer, 2004. "Regional Econometric Assessment of Aggregate Water Consumption Trends," Urban/Regional 0407006, EconWPA.
  4. Thomas M. Fullerton Jr. & Juan Alberto Luevano & Carol Taylor West, 2004. "Accuracy of Regional Single-Family Housing Start Forecasts," Urban/Regional 0404010, EconWPA.
  5. Thomas M Fullerton Jr, 2005. "Borderplex Bridge and Air Econometric Forecast Accuracy," Urban/Regional 0501005, EconWPA.

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