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Structural Regional Factors that Determine Absolute and Relative Accuracy of U.S. Regional Labor Market Forecasts

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  • West, Carol Taylor
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    Abstract

    Panel data on regional employment forecasts from structural equation econometric models and time-series models are used to examine whether accuracy of the forecasts can be predicted, both absolutely and relatively. Specification of accuracy includes the time forecast was made, forecast horizon, and regional economic/demographic characteristics. The estimated model is able to predict accuracy of each forecast set at high step lengths but is less successful at low step lengths and is not successful at all in predicting relative accuracy. Regional characteristics are significant determinants of accuracy for both sets of forecasts, but the significant characteristics differ across methodologies and step lengths.

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    Bibliographic Info

    Article provided by Southern Agricultural Economics Association in its journal Journal of Agricultural and Applied Economics.

    Volume (Year): 35 (2003)
    Issue (Month): ()
    Pages:

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    Handle: RePEc:ags:joaaec:43291

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    Related research

    Keywords: forecasting accuracy; panel data; regional economies models;

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    1. Armstrong, J. Scott, 1989. "Combining forecasts: The end of the beginning or the beginning of the end?," International Journal of Forecasting, Elsevier, vol. 5(4), pages 585-588.
    2. Glennon, Dennis & Lane, Julia & Johnson, Stanley, 1987. "Regional econometric models that reflect labor market relations," International Journal of Forecasting, Elsevier, vol. 3(2), pages 299-312.
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