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Regional Econometric Housing Start Forecast Accuracy in Florida

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  • Fullerton, Jr., Thomas M.

    (University of Texas at El Paso)

  • Taylor West, Carol A.

    (University of Florida)

Abstract

Regional econometric forecasting accuracy assessment has traditionally received less attention than its national macroeconometric counterpart. While evidence is available that state and local employment forecasts perform well relative to standard benchmarks, little is known about the historical performance of widely cited regional housing start forecasts. This paper attempts to fill partially that gap in the literature by assessing the accuracy of previously published residential construction forecasts for Florida and its six largest metropolitan areas. Results indicate that regional econometric housing start forecasts are less reliable than regional employment structural model forecasts.

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Bibliographic Info

Article provided by Southern Regional Science Association in its journal The Review of Regional Studies.

Volume (Year): 28 (1998)
Issue (Month): 3 (Winter)
Pages: 15-42

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Handle: RePEc:rre:publsh:v:28:y:1998:i:3:p:15-42

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  1. Carol Taylor West & Thomas M. Fullerton Jr., 2004. "Assessing the Historical Accuracy of Regional Economic Forecasts," Urban/Regional 0404009, EconWPA.
  2. Diebold, Francis X & Mariano, Roberto S, 1995. "Comparing Predictive Accuracy," Journal of Business & Economic Statistics, American Statistical Association, vol. 13(3), pages 253-63, July.
  3. Taylor, Carol A., 1982. "Econometric modeling of urban and other substate areas : An analysis of alternative methodologies," Regional Science and Urban Economics, Elsevier, vol. 12(3), pages 425-448, August.
  4. DiPasquale Denise & Wheaton William C., 1994. "Housing Market Dynamics and the Future of Housing Prices," Journal of Urban Economics, Elsevier, vol. 35(1), pages 1-27, January.
  5. Coulson N. Edward, 1993. "The Sources of Sectoral Fluctuations in Metropolitan Areas," Journal of Urban Economics, Elsevier, vol. 33(1), pages 76-94, January.
  6. Topel, Robert H & Rosen, Sherwin, 1988. "Housing Investment in the United States," Journal of Political Economy, University of Chicago Press, vol. 96(4), pages 718-40, August.
  7. Gatzlaff Dean H. & Ling David C., 1994. "Measuring Changes in Local House Prices: An Empirical Investigation of Alternative Methodologies," Journal of Urban Economics, Elsevier, vol. 35(2), pages 221-244, March.
  8. Su, Vincent, 1978. "An Error Analysis of Econometric and Noneconometric Forecasts," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 68(2), pages 306-12, May.
  9. Howrey, E Philip & Klein, Lawrence R & McCarthy, Michael D, 1974. "Notes on Testing the Predictive Performance of Econometric Models," International Economic Review, Department of Economics, University of Pennsylvania and Osaka University Institute of Social and Economic Research Association, vol. 15(2), pages 366-83, June.
  10. Mizrach, Bruce, 1992. "The distribution of the Theil U-statistic in bivariate normal populations," Economics Letters, Elsevier, vol. 38(2), pages 163-167, February.
  11. Thomas M Fullerton Jr, 2004. "A Composite Approach to Forecasting State Government Revenues," Public Economics 0408006, EconWPA.
  12. Pissarides, Christopher A & Wadsworth, Jonathan, 1989. "Unemployment and the Inter-regional Mobility of Labour," Economic Journal, Royal Economic Society, vol. 99(397), pages 739-55, September.
  13. Mills Edwin S. & Lubuele Luan' Sende, 1995. "Projecting Growth of Metropolitan Areas," Journal of Urban Economics, Elsevier, vol. 37(3), pages 344-360, May.
  14. DiPasquale, Denise & Wheaton, William C., 1992. "The cost of capital, tax reform, and the future of the rental housing market," Journal of Urban Economics, Elsevier, vol. 31(3), pages 337-359, May.
  15. McNees, Stephen K, 1978. "The "Rationality" of Economic Forecasts," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 68(2), pages 301-05, May.
  16. Thomas M Fullerton Jr, 2004. "International Trade and Investment," Urban/Regional 0409010, EconWPA.
  17. Knight J. R. & Hill R. Carter & Sirmans C. F., 1993. "Estimation of Hedonic Housing Price Models Using Nonsample Information: A Monte Carlo Study," Journal of Urban Economics, Elsevier, vol. 34(3), pages 319-346, November.
  18. Stephen K. McNees, 1992. "How large are economic forecast errors?," New England Economic Review, Federal Reserve Bank of Boston, issue Jul, pages 25-42.
  19. Ashley, Richard, 1988. "On the relative worth of recent macroeconomic forecasts," International Journal of Forecasting, Elsevier, vol. 4(3), pages 363-376.
  20. Gordon, Ian R, 1985. "The Cyclical Interaction between Regional Migration, Employment and Unemployment: A Time Series Analysis for Scotland," Scottish Journal of Political Economy, Scottish Economic Society, vol. 32(2), pages 135-58, June.
  21. Taylor, Carol A. & Theil, Henri, 1988. "Modeling the accuracy of certain regional predictions," Regional Science and Urban Economics, Elsevier, vol. 18(4), pages 453-462, November.
  22. Kolb, R. A. & Stekler, H. O., 1990. "The lead and accuracy of macroeconomic forecasts," Journal of Macroeconomics, Elsevier, vol. 12(1), pages 111-123.
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Cited by:
  1. Thomas M Fullerton Jr & David A Schauer, 2004. "Regional Econometric Assessment of Aggregate Water Consumption Trends," Urban/Regional 0407006, EconWPA.
  2. Thomas M Fullerton Jr, 2005. "Borderplex Bridge and Air Econometric Forecast Accuracy," Urban/Regional 0501005, EconWPA.
  3. Thomas M Fullerton Jr, 2004. "Specification of a Borderplex Econometric Forecasting Model," Urban/Regional 0405006, EconWPA.
  4. Thomas M. Fullerton Jr. & Juan Alberto Luevano & Carol Taylor West, 2004. "Accuracy of Regional Single-Family Housing Start Forecasts," Urban/Regional 0404010, EconWPA.
  5. Fullerton, Thomas Jr. & Laaksonen, Mika M. & West, Carol T., 2001. "Regional multi-family housing start forecast accuracy," International Journal of Forecasting, Elsevier, vol. 17(2), pages 171-180.

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