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A Composite Approach to Forecasting State Government Revenues

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Author Info

  • Thomas M Fullerton Jr

    (University of Texas at El Paso)

Abstract

Fiscal uncertainty has led many states to utilize a variety of economic and revenue forecasting methods. To improve accuracy, many budget analysts use alternative projections generated by different techniques. Composite modeling goes a step further and allows users to systematically combine two or more forecasts. This paper examines the effectiveness of composite forecasting of sales tax revenues in Idaho. Baseline projections are provided by an econometric model and by a univariate time series equation. Composite forecasts are found to outperform both baseline models. Combined forecasts are also found to be more precise than executive branch forecasts actually adopted from 1982 through 1985.

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Bibliographic Info

Paper provided by EconWPA in its series Public Economics with number 0408006.

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Length: 8 pages
Date of creation: 25 Aug 2004
Date of revision:
Handle: RePEc:wpa:wuwppe:0408006

Note: Type of Document - doc; pages: 8
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Web page: http://128.118.178.162

Related research

Keywords: Composite Forecasting; State Taxes; Applied Econometrics;

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References

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  1. Thomas M Fullerton Jr, 2004. "Rational Reactions to Temporary Sales Tax Legislation," Public Economics 0408004, EconWPA.
  2. Bretschneider, Stuart I. & Gorr, Wilpen L. & Grizzle, Gloria & Klay, Earle, 1989. "Political and organizational influences on the accuracy of forecasting state government revenues," International Journal of Forecasting, Elsevier, vol. 5(3), pages 307-319.
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Citations

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Cited by:
  1. Fullerton, Jr., Thomas M. & Taylor West, Carol A., 1998. "Regional Econometric Housing Start Forecast Accuracy in Florida," The Review of Regional Studies, Southern Regional Science Association, vol. 28(3), pages 15-42, Winter.
  2. Laurent Moulin & Matteo Sala & Andrea Silvestrini & David Veredas, 2008. "Using intra annual information to forecast the annual state deficit. The case of France," ULB Institutional Repository 2013/136217, ULB -- Universite Libre de Bruxelles.
  3. Thomas M Fullerton Jr & Eiichi Araki, 2004. "New Directions in Latin American Macroeconometrics," Development and Comp Systems 0408002, EconWPA.

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