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Forecasting for Environmental Decision Making

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Author Info
JS Armstrong (The Wharton School - University of Pennsylvania)

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Abstract

Those making environmental decisions must not only characterize the present, they must also forecast the future. They must do so for at least two reasons. First, if a no-action alternative is pursued, they must consider whether current trends will be favorable or unfavorable in the future. Second, if an intervention is pursued instead, they must evaluate both its probable success given future trends and its impacts on the human and natural environment. Forecasting, by which I mean explicit processes for determining what is likely to happen in the future, can help address each of these areas.

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Publisher Info
Paper provided by EconWPA in its series General Economics and Teaching with number 0412023.

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Length: 25 pages
Date of creation: 10 Dec 2004
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Handle: RePEc:wpa:wuwpgt:0412023

Note: Type of Document - pdf; pages: 25
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Web page: http://129.3.20.41

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Related research
Keywords: forecasting environment decision making environmental decision making

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A - General Economics and Teaching

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References listed on IDEAS
Please report citation or reference errors to , or , if you are the registered author of the cited work, log in to your RePEc Author Service profile, click on "citations" and make appropriate adjustments.:
  1. Deirdre N. McCloskey & Stephen T. Ziliak, 1996. "The Standard Error of Regressions," Journal of Economic Literature, American Economic Association, vol. 34(1), pages 97-114, March. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
  2. J. S. Armstrong, 2005. "Forecasting by Extrapolation: Conclusions from 25 Years of Research," General Economics and Teaching 0502025, EconWPA. [Downloadable!]
  3. Fred Collopy & JS Armstrong, 2004. "Rule-Based Forecasting: Development and Validation of an Expert Systems Approach to Combining Time Series Extrapolations," General Economics and Teaching 0412004, EconWPA. [Downloadable!]
  4. Bretschneider, Stuart I. & Gorr, Wilpen L. & Grizzle, Gloria & Klay, Earle, 1989. "Political and organizational influences on the accuracy of forecasting state government revenues," International Journal of Forecasting, Elsevier, vol. 5(3), pages 307-319. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
  5. JS Armstrong & Terry Overton, 2005. "Estimating Nonresponse Bias in Mail Surveys," General Economics and Teaching 0502044, EconWPA. [Downloadable!]
  6. Collopy, Fred & Armstrong, J. Scott, 1992. "Expert opinions about extrapolation and the mystery of the overlooked discontinuities," International Journal of Forecasting, Elsevier, vol. 8(4), pages 575-582, December. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
  7. JS Armstrong & Philip D. Hutcherson, 2005. "Predicting The Outcome of Marketing Negotiations: Role-Playing versus Unaided Opinions," General Economics and Teaching 0502040, EconWPA. [Downloadable!]
  8. Fullerton, Don & Kinnaman, Thomas C, 1996. "Household Responses to Pricing Garbage by the Bag," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 86(4), pages 971-84, September. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
    Other versions:
  9. JS Armstrong, 2004. "Forecasting Methods for Conflict Situations," General Economics and Teaching 0412025, EconWPA. [Downloadable!]
  10. JS Armstrong & Fred Collopy, 2004. "Causal Forces: Structuring Knowledge for Time-series Extrapolation," General Economics and Teaching 0412003, EconWPA. [Downloadable!]
  11. Yokuma, J. Thomas & Armstrong, J. Scott, 1995. "Beyond accuracy: Comparison of criteria used to select forecasting methods," International Journal of Forecasting, Elsevier, vol. 11(4), pages 591-597, December. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
  12. Clemen, Robert T., 1989. "Combining forecasts: A review and annotated bibliography," International Journal of Forecasting, Elsevier, vol. 5(4), pages 559-583. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
  13. Winston, Clifford, 1993. "Economic Deregulation: Days of Reckoning for Microeconomists," Journal of Economic Literature, American Economic Association, vol. 31(3), pages 1263-89, September. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
  14. Adya, Monica & Collopy, Fred & Armstrong, J. Scott & Kennedy, Miles, 2001. "Automatic identification of time series features for rule-based forecasting," International Journal of Forecasting, Elsevier, vol. 17(2), pages 143-157. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
  15. Chatfield, Chris, 1995. "Positive or negative?," International Journal of Forecasting, Elsevier, vol. 11(4), pages 501-502, December. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
  16. JS Armstrong & Fred Collopy, 2004. "Integration of Statistical Methods and Judgment for Time Series," General Economics and Teaching 0412024, EconWPA. [Downloadable!]
Full references

Cited by:
(explanations, Please report citation or reference errors to , or , if you are the registered author of the cited work, log in to your RePEc Author Service profile, click on "citations" and make appropriate adjustments.)

  1. Green, Kesten C. & Armstrong, J. Scott, 2007. "Global warming: Forecasts by scientists versus scientific forecasts," MPRA Paper 4361, University Library of Munich, Germany. [Downloadable!]
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