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Forecasting for Environmental Decision Making

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Author Info

  • J. S. Armstrong

    (The Wharton School)

Abstract

Those making environmental decisions must not only characterize the present, they must also forecast the future. They must do so for at least two reasons. First, if a no-action alternative is pursued, they must consider whether current trends will be favorable or unfavorable in the future. Second, if an intervention is pursued instead, they must evaluate both its probable success given future trends and its impacts on the human and natural environment. Forecasting, by which I mean explicit processes for determining what is likely to happen in the future, can help address each of these areas.

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File URL: http://128.118.178.162/eps/get/papers/0502/0502017.pdf
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Bibliographic Info

Paper provided by EconWPA in its series General Economics and Teaching with number 0502017.

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Length: 25 pages
Date of creation: 04 Feb 2005
Date of revision:
Handle: RePEc:wpa:wuwpgt:0502017

Note: Type of Document - pdf; pages: 25
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Web page: http://128.118.178.162

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Keywords: forecasting; environment;

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References

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  1. Deirdre N. McCloskey & Stephen T. Ziliak, 1996. "The Standard Error of Regressions," Journal of Economic Literature, American Economic Association, vol. 34(1), pages 97-114, March.
  2. Alison Hubbard Ashton & Robert H. Ashton, 1985. "Aggregating Subjective Forecasts: Some Empirical Results," Management Science, INFORMS, vol. 31(12), pages 1499-1508, December.
  3. Yokuma, J. Thomas & Armstrong, J. Scott, 1995. "Beyond accuracy: Comparison of criteria used to select forecasting methods," International Journal of Forecasting, Elsevier, vol. 11(4), pages 591-597, December.
  4. JS Armstrong & Fred Collopy, 2004. "Causal Forces: Structuring Knowledge for Time-series Extrapolation," General Economics and Teaching 0412003, EconWPA.
  5. Collopy, Fred & Armstrong, J. Scott, 1992. "Expert opinions about extrapolation and the mystery of the overlooked discontinuities," International Journal of Forecasting, Elsevier, vol. 8(4), pages 575-582, December.
  6. Fred Collopy & JS Armstrong, 2004. "Rule-Based Forecasting: Development and Validation of an Expert Systems Approach to Combining Time Series Extrapolations," General Economics and Teaching 0412004, EconWPA.
  7. Chatfield, Chris, 1995. "Positive or negative?," International Journal of Forecasting, Elsevier, vol. 11(4), pages 501-502, December.
  8. Adya, Monica & Collopy, Fred & Armstrong, J. Scott & Kennedy, Miles, 2001. "Automatic identification of time series features for rule-based forecasting," International Journal of Forecasting, Elsevier, vol. 17(2), pages 143-157.
  9. Bretschneider, Stuart I. & Gorr, Wilpen L. & Grizzle, Gloria & Klay, Earle, 1989. "Political and organizational influences on the accuracy of forecasting state government revenues," International Journal of Forecasting, Elsevier, vol. 5(3), pages 307-319.
  10. Don Fullerton & Thomas C. Kinnaman, 1994. "Household Responses to Pricing Garbage by the Bag," CARE Working Papers 9402, The University of Texas at Austin, Center for Applied Research in Economics.
  11. Dalrymple, Douglas J., 1987. "Sales forecasting practices: Results from a United States survey," International Journal of Forecasting, Elsevier, vol. 3(3-4), pages 379-391.
  12. J. S. Armstrong, 2005. "Forecasting by Extrapolation: Conclusions from 25 Years of Research," General Economics and Teaching 0502025, EconWPA.
  13. Clemen, Robert T., 1989. "Combining forecasts: A review and annotated bibliography," International Journal of Forecasting, Elsevier, vol. 5(4), pages 559-583.
  14. Robert C. Blattberg & Stephen J. Hoch, 1990. "Database Models and Managerial Intuition: 50% Model + 50% Manager," Management Science, INFORMS, vol. 36(8), pages 887-899, August.
  15. Winston, Clifford, 1993. "Economic Deregulation: Days of Reckoning for Microeconomists," Journal of Economic Literature, American Economic Association, vol. 31(3), pages 1263-89, September.
  16. JS Armstrong, 2004. "Forecasting Methods for Conflict Situations," General Economics and Teaching 0412025, EconWPA.
  17. JS Armstrong & Philip D. Hutcherson, 2005. "Predicting The Outcome of Marketing Negotiations: Role-Playing versus Unaided Opinions," General Economics and Teaching 0502040, EconWPA.
  18. JS Armstrong & Terry Overton, 2005. "Estimating Nonresponse Bias in Mail Surveys," General Economics and Teaching 0502044, EconWPA.
  19. JS Armstrong & Fred Collopy, 2004. "Integration of Statistical Methods and Judgment for Time Series," General Economics and Teaching 0412024, EconWPA.
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Cited by:
  1. Green, Kesten C. & Armstrong, J. Scott, 2007. "Global warming: Forecasts by scientists versus scientific forecasts," MPRA Paper 4361, University Library of Munich, Germany.

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