Revenue Forecasting Practices: Differences across Countries and Consequences for Forecasting Performance
AbstractThis paper reviews the practice and performance of revenue forecasting in selected OECD countries. While the mean forecast errors are small in most countries, the precision of the forecasts measured by the standard deviation of the forecast error differs substantially across countries. Based on a comparison of forecasting practices we show that these differences can be attributed to a large part to differences in the timing of the forecasts and in the tax structure. In addition, we find some evidence that differences in methods and institutions also matter for the forecasting precision. In particular, we find that the use of macroeconomic models as well as the independence of revenue forecasting are associated with a lower standard deviation of the forecast error.
Download InfoIf you experience problems downloading a file, check if you have the proper application to view it first. In case of further problems read the IDEAS help page. Note that these files are not on the IDEAS site. Please be patient as the files may be large.
Bibliographic InfoPaper provided by CESifo Group Munich in its series CESifo Working Paper Series with number 2628.
Date of creation: 2009
Date of revision:
revenue forecasting; international comparison; OECD countries; forecast error;
Other versions of this item:
- Thiess Buettner & Bjoern Kauder, 2010. "Revenue Forecasting Practices: Differences across Countries and Consequences for Forecasting Performance," Fiscal Studies, Institute for Fiscal Studies, vol. 31(3), pages 313-340, 09.
- H11 - Public Economics - - Structure and Scope of Government - - - Structure and Scope of Government
- H68 - Public Economics - - National Budget, Deficit, and Debt - - - Forecasts of Budgets, Deficits, and Debt
Please report citation or reference errors to , or , if you are the registered author of the cited work, log in to your RePEc Author Service profile, click on "citations" and make appropriate adjustments.:
- Frits Bos, 2007. "The Dutch fiscal framework; history, current practice and the role of the CPB," CPB Document 150, CPB Netherlands Bureau for Economic Policy Analysis.
- Auerbach, Alan J., 1999.
"On the Performance and Use of Government Revenue Forecasts,"
National Tax Journal,
National Tax Association, vol. 52(n. 4), pages 765-82, December.
- Auerbach, Alan Jeffrey, 1999. "On the Performance and Use of Government Revenue Forecasts," Berkeley Olin Program in Law & Economics, Working Paper Series qt8h845262, Berkeley Olin Program in Law & Economics.
- Teresa Leal & Javier J. Pérez & Mika Tujula & Jean-Pierre Vidal, 2008.
"Fiscal Forecasting: Lessons from the Literature and Challenges,"
Institute for Fiscal Studies, vol. 29(3), pages 347-386, 09.
- Leal, Teresa & Pérez, Javier J. & Tujula, Mika & Vidal, Jean-Pierre, 2007. "Fiscal forecasting: lessons from the literature and challenges," Working Paper Series 0843, European Central Bank.
- Richard Boylan, 2008. "Political distortions in state forecasts," Public Choice, Springer, vol. 136(3), pages 411-427, September.
- Lars Jonung & Martin Larch, 2004.
"Improving fiscal policy in the EU: the case for independent forecasts,"
European Economy - Economic Papers
210, Directorate General Economic and Monetary Affairs (DG ECFIN), European Commission.
- Lars Jonung & Martin Larch, 2006. "Improving fiscal policy in the EU: the case for independent forecasts," Economic Policy, CEPR & CES & MSH, vol. 21(47), pages 491-534, 07.
- Feenberg, Daniel R, et al, 1989.
"Testing the Rationality of State Revenue Forecasts,"
The Review of Economics and Statistics,
MIT Press, vol. 71(2), pages 300-308, May.
- Feenberg, D.R. & Gentry, W. & Gilroy, D. & Rosen, H.S., 1988. "Testing The Rationality Of State Revenue Forecasts," Papers 16, Princeton, Woodrow Wilson School - Discussion Paper.
- Daniel R. Feenberg & William Gentry & David Gilroy & Harvey S. Rosen, 1988. "Testing the Rationality of State Revenue Forecasts," NBER Working Papers 2628, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
- Bretschneider, Stuart I. & Gorr, Wilpen L. & Grizzle, Gloria & Klay, Earle, 1989. "Political and organizational influences on the accuracy of forecasting state government revenues," International Journal of Forecasting, Elsevier, vol. 5(3), pages 307-319.
- Tim Pike & David Savage, 1998. "Forecasting the public finances in the Treasury," Fiscal Studies, Institute for Fiscal Studies, vol. 19(1), pages 49-62, February.
- Georgia Kaplanoglou & Vassilis T. Rapanos, 2011.
"The Greek fiscal crisis and the role of fiscal governance,"
LSE Research Online Documents on Economics
36432, London School of Economics and Political Science, LSE Library.
- Georgia Kaplanoglou & Vassilis T. Rapanos, 2011. "The Greek Fiscal Crisis and the Role of Fiscal Governance," GreeSE â Hellenic Observatory Papers on Greece and Southeast Europe 48, Hellenic Observatory, LSE.
- António Afonso & Rui Carvalho, 2014. "Revenue Forecast Errors in the European Union," Working Papers Department of Economics 2014/02, ISEG - School of Economics and Management, Department of Economics, University of Lisbon.
- Ondřej BAYER, 2013. "Research of Estimates of Tax Revenue: An Overview," European Financial and Accounting Journal, University of Economics, Prague, vol. 2013(3).
- Athanassios Petralias & Sotirios Petros & Pródromos Prodromídis, 2013.
"Greece in Recession: Economic predictions, mispredictions and policy implications,"
GreeSE â Hellenic Observatory Papers on Greece and Southeast Europe
75, Hellenic Observatory, LSE.
- Athanassios Petralias & Sotirios Petros & Pródromos Prodromídis, 2013. "Greece in recession: economic predictions, mispredictions and policy implications," LSE Research Online Documents on Economics 52626, London School of Economics and Political Science, LSE Library.
- Cepparulo, Alessandra & Gastaldi, Francesca & Giuriato, Luisa & Sacchi, Agnese, 2011. "Budgeting versus implementing fiscal policy:the Italian case," MPRA Paper 32474, University Library of Munich, Germany.
- Andersen, Torben M., 2013. "Fiscal policy targeting under imperfect information," Journal of International Money and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 34(C), pages 114-130.
For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: (Julio Saavedra).
If references are entirely missing, you can add them using this form.