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Revenue Forecasting Practices: Differences across Countries and Consequences for Forecasting Performance

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  • Thiess Buettner
  • Bjoern Kauder

Abstract

This paper reviews the practice and performance of revenue forecasting in selected OECD countries. While the mean forecast errors are small in most countries, the precision of the forecasts measured by the standard deviation of the forecast error differs substantially across countries. Based on a comparison of forecasting practices we show that these differences can be attributed to a large part to differences in the timing of the forecasts and in the tax structure. In addition, we find some evidence that differences in methods and institutions also matter for the forecasting precision. In particular, we find that the use of macroeconomic models as well as the independence of revenue forecasting are associated with a lower standard deviation of the forecast error.

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Bibliographic Info

Article provided by Institute for Fiscal Studies in its journal Fiscal Studies.

Volume (Year): 31 (2010)
Issue (Month): 3 (09)
Pages: 313-340

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Handle: RePEc:ifs:fistud:v:31:y:2010:i:3:p:313-340

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  1. Lars Jonung & Martin Larch, 2006. "Improving fiscal policy in the EU: the case for independent forecasts," Economic Policy, CEPR & CES & MSH, vol. 21(47), pages 491-534, 07.
  2. Auerbach, Alan Jeffrey, 1999. "On the Performance and Use of Government Revenue Forecasts," Berkeley Olin Program in Law & Economics, Working Paper Series qt8h845262, Berkeley Olin Program in Law & Economics.
  3. Teresa Leal & Javier J. Pérez & Mika Tujula & Jean-Pierre Vidal, 2008. "Fiscal Forecasting: Lessons from the Literature and Challenges," Fiscal Studies, Institute for Fiscal Studies, vol. 29(3), pages 347-386, 09.
  4. Tim Pike & David Savage, 1998. "Forecasting the public finances in the Treasury," Fiscal Studies, Institute for Fiscal Studies, vol. 19(1), pages 49-62, February.
  5. Daniel R. Feenberg & William Gentry & David Gilroy & Harvey S. Rosen, 1989. "Testing the Rationality of State Revenue Forecasts," NBER Working Papers 2628, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
  6. Bretschneider, Stuart I. & Gorr, Wilpen L. & Grizzle, Gloria & Klay, Earle, 1989. "Political and organizational influences on the accuracy of forecasting state government revenues," International Journal of Forecasting, Elsevier, vol. 5(3), pages 307-319.
  7. Richard Boylan, 2008. "Political distortions in state forecasts," Public Choice, Springer, vol. 136(3), pages 411-427, September.
  8. Frits Bos, 2007. "The Dutch fiscal framework; history, current practice and the role of the CPB," CPB Document 150, CPB Netherlands Bureau for Economic Policy Analysis.
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Cited by:
  1. Athanassios Petralias & Sotirios Petros & Pródromos Prodromídis, 2013. "Greece in Recession: Economic predictions, mispredictions and policy implications," GreeSE – Hellenic Observatory Papers on Greece and Southeast Europe 75, Hellenic Observatory, LSE.
  2. Georgia Kaplanoglou & Vassilis T. Rapanos, 2011. "The Greek fiscal crisis and the role of fiscal governance," LSE Research Online Documents on Economics 36432, London School of Economics and Political Science, LSE Library.
  3. Georgia Kaplanoglou & Vassilis T. Rapanos, 2011. "The Greek Fiscal Crisis and the Role of Fiscal Governance," GreeSE – Hellenic Observatory Papers on Greece and Southeast Europe 48, Hellenic Observatory, LSE.
  4. Cepparulo, Alessandra & Gastaldi, Francesca & Giuriato, Luisa & Sacchi, Agnese, 2011. "Budgeting versus implementing fiscal policy:the Italian case," MPRA Paper 32474, University Library of Munich, Germany.
  5. Ondřej BAYER, 2013. "Research of Estimates of Tax Revenue: An Overview," European Financial and Accounting Journal, University of Economics, Prague, vol. 2013(3).
  6. Andersen, Torben M., 2013. "Fiscal policy targeting under imperfect information," Journal of International Money and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 34(C), pages 114-130.
  7. António Afonso & Rui Carvalho, 2014. "Revenue Forecast Errors in the European Union," Working Papers Department of Economics 2014/02, ISEG - School of Economics and Management, Department of Economics, University of Lisbon.

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