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Regional Econometric Housing Start Forecast Accuracy in Florida

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Author Info

  • Thomas M. Fullerton Jr.

    (University of Texas at El Paso)

  • Carol T. West

    (University of Florida)

Abstract

Regional econometric forecasting accuracy assessment has traditionally received less attention than its macroeconometric counterpart. While evidence is available that state and local employment forecasts perform well relative to standard benchmarks, little is known about the historical performance of widely cited regional housing start forecasts. This paper attempts to partially fill that gap in the literature by assessing the accuracy of previously published residential construction forecasts for Florida and its six largest metropolitan areas. Results indicate that regional econometric housing start forecasts are less reliable than regional employment structural model forecasts.

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Bibliographic Info

Paper provided by EconWPA in its series Urban/Regional with number 0403004.

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Length: 34 pages
Date of creation: 23 Mar 2004
Date of revision:
Handle: RePEc:wpa:wuwpur:0403004

Note: Type of Document - doc; pages: 34
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Web page: http://128.118.178.162

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Keywords: Regional econometrics; housing starts; forecast accuracy;

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References

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  5. Carol Taylor West & Thomas M. Fullerton Jr., 2004. "Assessing the Historical Accuracy of Regional Economic Forecasts," Urban/Regional, EconWPA 0404009, EconWPA.
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  7. Thomas M Fullerton Jr, 2004. "International Trade and Investment," Urban/Regional, EconWPA 0409010, EconWPA.
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  16. Topel, Robert H & Rosen, Sherwin, 1988. "Housing Investment in the United States," Journal of Political Economy, University of Chicago Press, University of Chicago Press, vol. 96(4), pages 718-40, August.
  17. Taylor, Carol A. & Theil, Henri, 1988. "Modeling the accuracy of certain regional predictions," Regional Science and Urban Economics, Elsevier, vol. 18(4), pages 453-462, November.
  18. Coulson N. Edward, 1993. "The Sources of Sectoral Fluctuations in Metropolitan Areas," Journal of Urban Economics, Elsevier, vol. 33(1), pages 76-94, January.
  19. Pissarides, Christopher A & Wadsworth, Jonathan, 1989. "Unemployment and the Inter-regional Mobility of Labour," Economic Journal, Royal Economic Society, Royal Economic Society, vol. 99(397), pages 739-55, September.
  20. Thomas M Fullerton Jr, 2004. "A Composite Approach to Forecasting State Government Revenues," Public Economics 0408006, EconWPA.
  21. Ashley, Richard, 1988. "On the relative worth of recent macroeconomic forecasts," International Journal of Forecasting, Elsevier, vol. 4(3), pages 363-376.
  22. DiPasquale Denise & Wheaton William C., 1994. "Housing Market Dynamics and the Future of Housing Prices," Journal of Urban Economics, Elsevier, vol. 35(1), pages 1-27, January.
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Cited by:
  1. Thomas M Fullerton Jr, 2004. "Specification of a Borderplex Econometric Forecasting Model," Urban/Regional, EconWPA 0405006, EconWPA.
  2. Thomas M Fullerton Jr, 2005. "Borderplex Bridge and Air Econometric Forecast Accuracy," Urban/Regional, EconWPA 0501005, EconWPA.
  3. Fullerton, Thomas Jr. & Laaksonen, Mika M. & West, Carol T., 2001. "Regional multi-family housing start forecast accuracy," International Journal of Forecasting, Elsevier, vol. 17(2), pages 171-180.
  4. Thomas M. Fullerton Jr. & Juan Alberto Luevano & Carol Taylor West, 2004. "Accuracy of Regional Single-Family Housing Start Forecasts," Urban/Regional, EconWPA 0404010, EconWPA.
  5. Thomas M Fullerton Jr & David A Schauer, 2004. "Regional Econometric Assessment of Aggregate Water Consumption Trends," Urban/Regional, EconWPA 0407006, EconWPA.

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