Regional Econometric Housing Start Forecast Accuracy in Florida
AbstractRegional econometric forecasting accuracy assessment has traditionally received less attention than its macroeconometric counterpart. While evidence is available that state and local employment forecasts perform well relative to standard benchmarks, little is known about the historical performance of widely cited regional housing start forecasts. This paper attempts to partially fill that gap in the literature by assessing the accuracy of previously published residential construction forecasts for Florida and its six largest metropolitan areas. Results indicate that regional econometric housing start forecasts are less reliable than regional employment structural model forecasts.
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Bibliographic InfoPaper provided by EconWPA in its series Urban/Regional with number 0403004.
Length: 34 pages
Date of creation: 23 Mar 2004
Date of revision:
Note: Type of Document - doc; pages: 34
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Regional econometrics; housing starts; forecast accuracy;
Other versions of this item:
- Fullerton, Jr., Thomas M. & Taylor West, Carol A., 1998. "Regional Econometric Housing Start Forecast Accuracy in Florida," The Review of Regional Studies, Southern Regional Science Association, vol. 28(3), pages 15-42, Winter.
- C53 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Econometric Modeling - - - Forecasting and Prediction Models; Simulation Methods
This paper has been announced in the following NEP Reports:
- NEP-ALL-2004-03-28 (All new papers)
- NEP-ECM-2004-03-28 (Econometrics)
- NEP-GEO-2004-03-28 (Economic Geography)
- NEP-URE-2004-03-28 (Urban & Real Estate Economics)
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