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Accuracy of Regional Single-Family Housing Start Forecasts

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Author Info

  • Thomas M. Fullerton Jr.

    (University of Texas at El Paso)

  • Juan Alberto Luevano

    (University of Texas at El Paso)

  • Carol Taylor West

    (University of Florida)

Abstract

Regional single-family housing start forecasts are used in numerous banking, government, public utility, and retail applications. Despite that, they have not been systematically examined for predictive accuracy. This article analyzes quarterly single-family housing start forecasts for Florida and its six largest metropolitan economies. The sample period covers 1985:1 through 1996:2 and includes a complete business cycle. In contrast to regional employment, the econometric housing activity forecasts do not fare well against univariate ARIMA and random walk benchmarks.

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Bibliographic Info

Paper provided by EconWPA in its series Urban/Regional with number 0404010.

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Length: 17 pages
Date of creation: 23 Apr 2004
Date of revision:
Handle: RePEc:wpa:wuwpur:0404010

Note: Type of Document - doc; pages: 17
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Keywords: Regional housing start forecasts;

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References

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  1. Stephen K. McNees, 1992. "How large are economic forecast errors?," New England Economic Review, Federal Reserve Bank of Boston, issue Jul, pages 25-42.
  2. Ashley, Richard, 1988. "On the relative worth of recent macroeconomic forecasts," International Journal of Forecasting, Elsevier, vol. 4(3), pages 363-376.
  3. Mizrach, Bruce, 1992. "The distribution of the Theil U-statistic in bivariate normal populations," Economics Letters, Elsevier, vol. 38(2), pages 163-167, February.
  4. Thomas M. Fullerton JR., 2001. "Specification of a Borderplex Econometric Forecasting Model," International Regional Science Review, , vol. 24(2), pages 245-260, April.
  5. Carol Taylor West & Thomas M. Fullerton Jr., 2004. "Assessing the Historical Accuracy of Regional Economic Forecasts," Urban/Regional 0404009, EconWPA.
  6. Topel, Robert H & Rosen, Sherwin, 1988. "Housing Investment in the United States," Journal of Political Economy, University of Chicago Press, vol. 96(4), pages 718-40, August.
  7. Fullerton, Jr., Thomas M. & Taylor West, Carol A., 1998. "Regional Econometric Housing Start Forecast Accuracy in Florida," The Review of Regional Studies, Southern Regional Science Association, vol. 28(3), pages 15-42, Winter.
  8. Lester Hunt & Martin Snell, 1997. "Comparative Properties of Local Econometric Models in the UK," Regional Studies, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 31(9), pages 891-901.
  9. Fullerton, Thomas Jr. & Laaksonen, Mika M. & West, Carol T., 2001. "Regional multi-family housing start forecast accuracy," International Journal of Forecasting, Elsevier, vol. 17(2), pages 171-180.
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Citations

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Cited by:
  1. Thomas M. Fullerton Jr. & Ana Cecilia Nava, 2004. "Short-Term Water Dynamics in Chihuahua City, Mexico," Urban/Regional 0404001, EconWPA.
  2. Croce, Roberto M. & Haurin, Donald R., 2009. "Predicting turning points in the housing market," Journal of Housing Economics, Elsevier, vol. 18(4), pages 281-293, December.
  3. Thomas M Fullerton Jr, 2005. "Borderplex Bridge and Air Econometric Forecast Accuracy," Urban/Regional 0501005, EconWPA.
  4. Bradley Ewing & Yongsheng Wang, 2005. "Single housing starts and macroeconomic activity: an application of generalized impulse response analysis," Applied Economics Letters, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 12(3), pages 187-190.

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