Accuracy of Regional Single-Family Housing Start Forecasts
AbstractRegional single-family housing start forecasts are used in numerous banking, government, public utility, and retail applications. Despite that, they have not been systematically examined for predictive accuracy. This article analyzes quarterly single-family housing start forecasts for Florida and its six largest metropolitan economies. The sample period covers 1985:1 through 1996:2 and includes a complete business cycle. In contrast to regional employment, the econometric housing activity forecasts do not fare well against univariate ARIMA and random walk benchmarks.
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Bibliographic InfoPaper provided by EconWPA in its series Urban/Regional with number 0404010.
Length: 17 pages
Date of creation: 23 Apr 2004
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Regional housing start forecasts;
Find related papers by JEL classification:
- R - Urban, Rural, Regional, Real Estate, and Transportation Economics
This paper has been announced in the following NEP Reports:
- NEP-ALL-2004-04-25 (All new papers)
- NEP-GEO-2004-04-25 (Economic Geography)
- NEP-URE-2004-04-25 (Urban & Real Estate Economics)
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