Accuracy of Regional Single-Family Housing Start Forecasts
AbstractRegional single-family housing start forecasts are used in numerous banking, government, public utility, and retail applications. Despite that, they have not been systematically examined for predictive accuracy. This article analyzes quarterly single-family housing start forecasts for Florida and its six largest metropolitan economies. The sample period covers 1985:1 through 1996:2 and includes a complete business cycle. In contrast to regional employment, the econometric housing activity forecasts do not fare well against univariate ARIMA and random walk benchmarks.
Download InfoIf you experience problems downloading a file, check if you have the proper application to view it first. In case of further problems read the IDEAS help page. Note that these files are not on the IDEAS site. Please be patient as the files may be large.
Bibliographic InfoPaper provided by EconWPA in its series Urban/Regional with number 0404010.
Length: 17 pages
Date of creation: 23 Apr 2004
Date of revision:
Note: Type of Document - doc; pages: 17
Contact details of provider:
Web page: http://184.108.40.206
Regional housing start forecasts;
Find related papers by JEL classification:
- R - Urban, Rural, Regional, Real Estate, and Transportation Economics
This paper has been announced in the following NEP Reports:
- NEP-ALL-2004-04-25 (All new papers)
- NEP-GEO-2004-04-25 (Economic Geography)
- NEP-URE-2004-04-25 (Urban & Real Estate Economics)
Please report citation or reference errors to , or , if you are the registered author of the cited work, log in to your RePEc Author Service profile, click on "citations" and make appropriate adjustments.:
- Stephen K. McNees, 1992. "How large are economic forecast errors?," New England Economic Review, Federal Reserve Bank of Boston, issue Jul, pages 25-42.
- Ashley, Richard, 1988. "On the relative worth of recent macroeconomic forecasts," International Journal of Forecasting, Elsevier, vol. 4(3), pages 363-376.
- Mizrach, Bruce, 1992. "The distribution of the Theil U-statistic in bivariate normal populations," Economics Letters, Elsevier, vol. 38(2), pages 163-167, February.
- Thomas M. Fullerton JR., 2001.
"Specification of a Borderplex Econometric Forecasting Model,"
International Regional Science Review,
, vol. 24(2), pages 245-260, April.
- Thomas M Fullerton Jr, 2004. "Specification of a Borderplex Econometric Forecasting Model," Urban/Regional 0405006, EconWPA.
- Carol Taylor West & Thomas M. Fullerton Jr., 2004. "Assessing the Historical Accuracy of Regional Economic Forecasts," Urban/Regional 0404009, EconWPA.
- Topel, Robert H & Rosen, Sherwin, 1988. "Housing Investment in the United States," Journal of Political Economy, University of Chicago Press, vol. 96(4), pages 718-40, August.
- Fullerton, Jr., Thomas M. & Taylor West, Carol A., 1998.
"Regional Econometric Housing Start Forecast Accuracy in Florida,"
The Review of Regional Studies,
Southern Regional Science Association, vol. 28(3), pages 15-42, Winter.
- Thomas M. Fullerton Jr. & Carol T. West, 2004. "Regional Econometric Housing Start Forecast Accuracy in Florida," Urban/Regional 0403004, EconWPA.
- Lester Hunt & Martin Snell, 1997. "Comparative Properties of Local Econometric Models in the UK," Regional Studies, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 31(9), pages 891-901.
- Fullerton, Thomas Jr. & Laaksonen, Mika M. & West, Carol T., 2001. "Regional multi-family housing start forecast accuracy," International Journal of Forecasting, Elsevier, vol. 17(2), pages 171-180.
- Thomas M. Fullerton Jr. & Ana Cecilia Nava, 2004. "Short-Term Water Dynamics in Chihuahua City, Mexico," Urban/Regional 0404001, EconWPA.
- Croce, Roberto M. & Haurin, Donald R., 2009. "Predicting turning points in the housing market," Journal of Housing Economics, Elsevier, vol. 18(4), pages 281-293, December.
- Thomas M Fullerton Jr, 2005. "Borderplex Bridge and Air Econometric Forecast Accuracy," Urban/Regional 0501005, EconWPA.
- Bradley Ewing & Yongsheng Wang, 2005. "Single housing starts and macroeconomic activity: an application of generalized impulse response analysis," Applied Economics Letters, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 12(3), pages 187-190.
For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: (EconWPA).
If references are entirely missing, you can add them using this form.