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How accurate are macroeconomic forecasts?

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  • Stephen K. McNees
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    Bibliographic Info

    Article provided by Federal Reserve Bank of Boston in its journal New England Economic Review.

    Volume (Year): (1988)
    Issue (Month): Jul ()
    Pages: 15-36

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    Handle: RePEc:fip:fedbne:y:1988:i:jul:p:15-36

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    Keywords: Forecasting ; Macroeconomics;

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    Cited by:
    1. Dennis Hoffman & Robert H. Rasche, 1989. "The Demand For Money in the U.S. During the Great Depression: Estimates and Comparison with the Post War Experience," NBER Working Papers 3217, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    2. Carol Taylor West & Thomas M. Fullerton Jr., 2004. "Assessing the Historical Accuracy of Regional Economic Forecasts," Urban/Regional 0404009, EconWPA.
    3. Karine Bouthevillain, 1993. "La prévision macro-économique : précision relative et consensus," Économie et Prévision, Programme National Persée, vol. 108(2), pages 97-126.
    4. Pierre Morin & Pierre Malgrange & Catherine Doz & Carine Bouthevillain & Didier Borowski, 1991. "Vingt ans de prévisions macro-économiques : une évaluation sur données françaises," Économie et Prévision, Programme National Persée, vol. 99(3), pages 43-65.
    5. Fildes, Robert & Stekler, Herman, 2002. "The state of macroeconomic forecasting," Journal of Macroeconomics, Elsevier, vol. 24(4), pages 435-468, December.
    6. Michael T. Belongia, 1988. "Are economic forecasts by government agencies biased? Accurate?," Review, Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis, issue Nov, pages 15-23.
    7. John C. Robertson & Ellis W. Tallman, 1998. "Data vintages and measuring forecast model performance," Economic Review, Federal Reserve Bank of Atlanta, issue Q 4, pages 4-20.
    8. Gavin, William T. & Mandal, Rachel J., 2003. "Evaluating FOMC forecasts," International Journal of Forecasting, Elsevier, vol. 19(4), pages 655-667.
    9. Joutz, Fred & Stekler, H. O., 2000. "An evaluation of the predictions of the Federal Reserve," International Journal of Forecasting, Elsevier, vol. 16(1), pages 17-38.
    10. William T. Gavin & Kevin L. Kliesen, 2006. "Forecasting inflation and output: comparing data-rich models with simple rules," Working Papers 2006-054, Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis.
    11. Ullrich Heilemann & Herman O. Stekler, 2013. "Has The Accuracy of Macroeconomic Forecasts for Germany Improved?," German Economic Review, Verein für Socialpolitik, vol. 14(2), pages 235-253, 05.
    12. Wolfgang Nierhaus, 2014. "Wirtschaftskonjunktur 2013: Prognose und Wirklichkeit," Ifo Schnelldienst, Ifo Institute for Economic Research at the University of Munich, vol. 67(02), pages 41-46, 01.
    13. Victor Zarnowitz, 1991. "Has Macro-Forecasting Failed?," NBER Working Papers 3867, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    14. Menzie David Chinn, 1991. "Beware of econometricians bearing estimates: Policy analysis in a “unit root” world," Journal of Policy Analysis and Management, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 10(4), pages 546-567.
    15. Stephen K. McNees, 1990. "Man vs. model? The role of judgment in forecasting," New England Economic Review, Federal Reserve Bank of Boston, issue Jul, pages 41-52.
    16. Vuchelen, Jef & Gutierrez, Maria-Isabel, 2005. "A direct test of the information content of the OECD growth forecasts," International Journal of Forecasting, Elsevier, vol. 21(1), pages 103-117.
    17. Higgins, Matthew L. & Mishra, Sagarika, 2014. "State dependent asymmetric loss and the consensus forecast of real U.S. GDP growth," Economic Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 38(C), pages 627-632.
    18. Wolfgang Nierhaus, 2013. "Konjunkturprognosen heute – Möglichkeiten und Probleme," Ifo Schnelldienst, Ifo Institute for Economic Research at the University of Munich, vol. 66(01), pages 25-32, 01.

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