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Metropolitan Maquiladora Econometric Forecast Accuracy

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  • Thomas M. Fullerton Jr.

    ()
    (Department of Economics & Finance, University of Texas at El Paso, El Paso, TX 79968-0543, Telephone 915-747-7747, Facsimile 915- 747-6282)

  • George Novela

    ()

Abstract

Maquiladora in-bond manufacturing activities occupy positions of collective importance within many regional economies across Mexico. To date, empirical evidence regarding the predictability of maquiladora activities in Mexico has not been attempted. To partially fill that gap in the literature, two sets of in-bond industry econometric forecasts for metropolitan economies in Northern Mexico are analyzed. Empirical results indicate that accurate forecasts of metropolitan maquiladora variables may prove elusive.

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Bibliographic Info

Article provided by Institute for Economic Forecasting in its journal Romanian Journal for Economic Forecasting.

Volume (Year): (2010)
Issue (Month): 3 (September)
Pages: 124-140

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Handle: RePEc:rjr:romjef:v::y:2010:i:3:p:124-140

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Keywords: Regional Maquiladora Forecasting;

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References

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  1. Ashley, Richard, 1988. "On the relative worth of recent macroeconomic forecasts," International Journal of Forecasting, Elsevier, vol. 4(3), pages 363-376.
  2. Thomas M. Fullerton JR., 2001. "Specification of a Borderplex Econometric Forecasting Model," International Regional Science Review, , vol. 24(2), pages 245-260, April.
  3. Feenstra, Robert C. & Hanson, Gordon H., 1997. "Foreign direct investment and relative wages: Evidence from Mexico's maquiladoras," Journal of International Economics, Elsevier, vol. 42(3-4), pages 371-393, May.
  4. Mathan Satchi & Jonathan Temple, 2008. "Online Appendix for "Labor Markets and Productivity in Developing Countries"," Technical Appendices 06-167, Review of Economic Dynamics.
  5. Thomas M Fullerton Jr, 2005. "Borderplex Bridge and Air Econometric Forecast Accuracy," Urban/Regional 0501005, EconWPA.
  6. Mendoza, Jorge Eduardo & Calderon, Cuauhtemoc, 2001. "Determinantes Regionales de la Industria Maquiladora de Exportación en los Estados de la Frontera Norte
    [Regional determinants of the export maquiladora industry in the Northern Border states of M
    ," MPRA Paper 3105, University Library of Munich, Germany, revised 2001.
  7. Ashley, R & Granger, C W J & Schmalensee, R, 1980. "Advertising and Aggregate Consumption: An Analysis of Causality," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 48(5), pages 1149-67, July.
  8. Mathan Satchi & Jonathan Temple, 2008. "Labour Markets and Productivity in Developing Countries," Studies in Economics 0805, Department of Economics, University of Kent.
  9. Lila J. Truett & Dale B. Truett, 2007. "Nafta And The Maquiladoras: Boon Or Bane?," Contemporary Economic Policy, Western Economic Association International, vol. 25(3), pages 374-386, 07.
  10. Fair, Ray C & Shiller, Robert J, 1990. "Comparing Information in Forecasts from Econometric Models," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 80(3), pages 375-89, June.
  11. Roberto Coronado & Thomas M. Fullerton Jr. & Don P. Clark, 2004. "Short-run maquiladora employment dynamics in Tijuana," The Annals of Regional Science, Springer, vol. 38(4), pages 751-763, December.
  12. Thomas M Fullerton Jr & Roberto Tinajero, 2004. "Cross Border Cargo Vehicle Flows," International Trade 0405006, EconWPA.
  13. Mollick, Andre Varella & Wvalle-Vazquez, Karina, 2006. "Chinese competition and its effects on Mexican maquiladoras," Journal of Comparative Economics, Elsevier, vol. 34(1), pages 130-145, March.
  14. Diebold, Francis X & Mariano, Roberto S, 2002. "Comparing Predictive Accuracy," Journal of Business & Economic Statistics, American Statistical Association, vol. 20(1), pages 134-44, January.
  15. Jes�S Ca�As & Thomas M. Fullerton & Wm. Doyle Smith, 2007. "Maquiladora Employment Dynamics in Nuevo Laredo," Growth and Change, Gatton College of Business and Economics, University of Kentucky, vol. 38(1), pages 23-38.
  16. Thomas M Fullerton Jr & Luis Bernardo Torres Ruiz, 2005. "Maquiladora Employment Dynamics in Chihuahua City, Mexico," Development and Comp Systems 0501006, EconWPA.
  17. Cuauhtemoc CALDERON VILLARREAL & Eduardo Mendoza, 2005. "Determinantes Regionales De La Maquila De Exportacion En La Frontera Norte," Urban/Regional 0511001, EconWPA.
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Cited by:
  1. Arnold Cote, K. Nicole & Smith, Wm. Doyle & Fullerton, Thomas M., Jr., 2010. "Municipal Non-Residential Real Property Valuation Forecast Accuracy," MPRA Paper 32116, University Library of Munich, Germany, revised 11 Feb 2011.

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