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Cross Border Cargo Vehicle Flows

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Author Info

  • Thomas M Fullerton Jr

    (University of Texas at El Paso)

  • Roberto Tinajero

    (University of Texas at El Paso)

Abstract

Increases in international merchandise trade plus growth in the northern Mexico maquiladora sector have caused the volume of cargo vehicle flows through border metropolitan areas to expand in recent decades. To examine whether the trends associated with these developments can be successfully modeled, short-term time series characteristics of cross- border cargo vehicle through El Paso, Texas are analyzed. Univariate and transfer function ARIMA methodologies are employed using data from January 1980 through December 1999. Maquiladora employment in Ciudad Juarez, nonagricultural employment in El Paso, the real exchange rate, industrial activity in Mexico, and U.S. industrial activity are found to influence monthly changes in border region cargo vehicle flows.

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Bibliographic Info

Paper provided by EconWPA in its series International Trade with number 0405006.

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Length: 27 pages
Date of creation: 21 May 2004
Date of revision:
Handle: RePEc:wpa:wuwpit:0405006

Note: Type of Document - doc; pages: 27
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Web page: http://128.118.178.162

Related research

Keywords: Border economics; time series econometrics; cargo vehicles;

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References

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  1. Thomas Fullerton & W. Sawyer & Richard Sprinkle, 1999. "Latin American trade elasticities," Journal of Economics and Finance, Springer, vol. 23(2), pages 143-156, June.
  2. Thomas M Fullerton Jr, 2004. "Cross Border Business Cycle (Impacts on Commercial Electricity Demand," Urban/Regional 0407010, EconWPA.
  3. Thomas M Fullerton Jr, 2004. "Currency Movements and International Border Crossings," Urban/Regional 0407008, EconWPA.
  4. Tiao, George C & Tsay, Ruey S, 1983. "Multiple Time Series Modeling and Extended Sample Cross-Correlations," Journal of Business & Economic Statistics, American Statistical Association, vol. 1(1), pages 43-56, January.
  5. Lucinda Vargas, 1999. "NAFTA's first five years (part 1)," Business Frontier, Federal Reserve Bank of Dallas.
  6. Thomas M Fullerton Jr, 2004. "Specification of a Borderplex Econometric Forecasting Model," Urban/Regional 0405006, EconWPA.
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Citations

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Cited by:
  1. Thomas M Fullerton Jr & Richard L Sprinkle & Roberto Tinajero, 2004. "El Paso Customs District Cross-Border Trade Flows," International Trade 0406001, EconWPA.
  2. Thomas Fullerton & Roberto Tinajero & Martha Barraza de Anda, 2006. "Short-Term Water Consumption Patterns in Ciudad Juárez, Mexico," Atlantic Economic Journal, International Atlantic Economic Society, vol. 34(4), pages 467-479, December.
  3. Thomas M Fullerton Jr, 2005. "Borderplex Bridge and Air Econometric Forecast Accuracy," Urban/Regional 0501005, EconWPA.
  4. Thomas M. Fullerton Jr. & George Novela, 2010. "Metropolitan Maquiladora Econometric Forecast Accuracy," Journal for Economic Forecasting, Institute for Economic Forecasting, vol. 0(3), pages 124-140, September.

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