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Dinámica de corto plazo del empleo en las maquiladoras de Reynosa, Tamaulipas
[Short-run dynamics of payrolls in the maquiladora sector of Reynosa, Tamaulipas (Mexico)]

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Author Info

  • Fullerton, Thomas M., Jr.
  • Vazquez Morales, Juan Carlos
  • Barraza de Anda, Martha P.

Abstract

This research analyzes short-run payroll dynamics associated with the maquiladora export sector of Reynosa, Tamaulipas, Mexico. Parameter estimation is carried out using linear transfer function ARIMA analysis. In contrast to other metropolitan economies for which similar econometric analyses have been completed, real currency movements are not found to be statistically significant. Explanatory variables that do satisfy the significance criterion include industrial activity in the United States, real wages, and the number of factories in operation. Out-of-sample simulations indicate that the model is relatively accurate for forecasts of to 1- to 24 months into the future.

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Bibliographic Info

Paper provided by University Library of Munich, Germany in its series MPRA Paper with number 34925.

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Date of creation: 09 Sep 2010
Date of revision: 15 Feb 2011
Publication status: Published in Ensayos Revista de Economía 1.30(2011): pp. 23-40
Handle: RePEc:pra:mprapa:34925

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Keywords: Maquiladoras; Mexico; Employment; Border Economics;

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References

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  1. Thomas Fullerton & Miwa Hattori & Cuauhtémoc Calderón, 2001. "Error correction exchange rate modeling: Evidence for Mexico," Journal of Economics and Finance, Springer, vol. 25(3), pages 358-368, September.
  2. Thomas M Fullerton Jr & Luis Bernardo Torres Ruiz, 2005. "Maquiladora Employment Dynamics in Chihuahua City, Mexico," Development and Comp Systems 0501006, EconWPA.
  3. Roberto Coronado & Thomas M. Fullerton Jr. & Don P. Clark, 2004. "Short-run maquiladora employment dynamics in Tijuana," The Annals of Regional Science, Springer, vol. 38(4), pages 751-763, December.
  4. Fullerton, Th. & Lopez, J.J., 2005. "Error Correction Exchange Rate Modeling for Mexico: 1980 – 2001," International Journal of Applied Econometrics and Quantitative Studies, Euro-American Association of Economic Development, vol. 2(3), pages 17-30.
  5. William C. Gruben, 2001. "Was NAFTA behind Mexico's high maquiladora growth?," Economic and Financial Policy Review, Federal Reserve Bank of Dallas, issue Q III, pages 11-21.
  6. Jes�S Ca�As & Thomas M. Fullerton & Wm. Doyle Smith, 2007. "Maquiladora Employment Dynamics in Nuevo Laredo," Growth and Change, Gatton College of Business and Economics, University of Kentucky, vol. 38(1), pages 23-38.
  7. Thomas M Fullerton Jr & David A Schauer, 2004. "Short-Run Maquiladora Employment Dynamics," Urban/Regional 0407007, EconWPA.
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